885
FXUS65 KLKN 272002
AFDLKN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
102 PM PDT TUE MAY 27 2025
KEY MESSAGES
* ISOLATED, DRY THUNDERSTORMS EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING TODAY
THROUGH THURSDAY IN ELKO AND WHITE PINE COUNTIES
* WARMING TREND TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY
* NEAR RECORD HEAT IS EXPECTED IN ELKO, WINNEMUCCA, ELY, AND
TONOPAH FRIDAY AFTERNOON
* RECORD HEAT IS ANTICIPATED IN ELKO, WINNEMUCCA, EUREKA, AND
TONOPAH SATURDAY AFTERNOON
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 102 PM PDT TUE MAY 27 2025
WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW: A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND
NORTHWESTWARD OVER NORTHEASTERN NEVADA TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. FARTHER SOUTH, AN EASTERN PACIFIC TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE
WILL EXTEND EASTWARD INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST TODAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. ISOLATED, DRY THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP OVER EASTERN ELKO AND EASTERN WHITE PINE COUNTIES THIS
AFTERNOON. THE HIGHEST PROBABILITIES (15-20%) OF THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE CONFINED TO EASTERN WHITE PINE COUNTY THIS AFTERNOON INTO
THIS EVENING. ISOLATED, DRY THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD FORM IN MOST OF
ELKO AND WHITE PINE COUNTIES WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THE HIGHEST
PROBABILITIES (15-20%) OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CONFINED TO
NORTHERN ELKO COUNTY AND SOUTHEASTERN WHITE PINE COUNTY WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING.
LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL BE AROUND TEN DEGREES ABOVE SEASONAL
VALUES. HIGH TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND LOW TEMPERATURES
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL BE ELEVEN TO THIRTEEN DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL
FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. HERE ARE PROBABILITIES OF MAXIMUM
TEMPERATURES OF 85 DEGREES OR HIGHER FOR SELECT LOCATIONS IN
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NEVADA ON WEDNESDAY, MAY 28TH, 2025:
WINNEMUCCA - 100%
BATTLE MOUNTAIN - 100%
CARLIN - 100%
ELKO - 99%
WEST WENDOVER - 96%
TONOPAH - 95%
EUREKA - 90%
SPRING CREEK - 65%
LUND - 50%
ELY - 35%
A WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH SATURDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE STRENGTHENS OVER THE WESTERN U.S, WHILE A CLOSED LOW
OFFSHORE SLOWLY DRIFTS INTO SOCAL. HIGHS WILL REACH INTO THE UPPER
80S TO LOWER 90S WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S.
BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON, HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE AROUND 15
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. NEAR-RECORD HEAT IS
EXPECTED IN ELKO, ELY, AND TONOPAH ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON, WITH
RECORD HEAT ANTICIPATED IN TONOPAH ON SATURDAY.
ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON, NEAR-RECORD TEMPERATURES ARE ALSO EXPECTED
IN ELKO, WINNEMUCCA, AND EUREKA. BY SUNDAY, ELKO, WINNEMUCCA, AND
ELY MAY AGAIN APPROACH RECORD HIGHS. WINDS WILL BE BREEZY AT
TIMES, WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 MPH.
THE LATEST CLUSTER ANALYSIS AND PROBABILISTIC ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE
ARE GRADUALLY CONVERGING ON THE TIMING OF THE NEXT TROUGH
APPROACHING FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST THIS WEEKEND. ADDITIONALLY,
THE CLOSED LOW SITUATED NEAR SOCAL IS EXPECTED TO LIFT INTO
NEVADA AND BECOME ABSORBED INTO THE BROADER PACIFIC NORTHWEST
TROUGH.
THIS DEVELOPING SYSTEM, COMBINED WITH UPPER-LEVEL FORCING AND A
SURFACE COLD FRONT, WILL BRING WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS TO THE
REGION FROM SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. STRONGER WINDS ARE ALSO
EXPECTED, WITH GUSTS RANGING FROM 20 TO 30 MPH. ADDITIONALLY,
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING THUNDERSTORMS
MAY DEVELOP, CAPABLE OF PRODUCING GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS OF 40 TO 50
MPH.
A COOLER AIRMASS ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH WILL LOWER
TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY, WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S AND
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 30S AND 40S.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS: OVERALL FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS
HIGH REGARDING TEMPERATURES AND WINDS. CONFIDENCE IN THE
DEVELOPMENT AND LOCATION OF ISOLATED, DRY THUNDERSTORMS IS
MODERATE. FORECAST CONFIDENCE DECREASES LATE THIS WEEKEND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK. NO CHANGES TO THE NBM OUTPUT.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL TERMINALS OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS. A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION, BRINGING
INCREASING CLOUD COVER (WITH CIGS FROM FL080 TO FL150) AND A 20%
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS PORTIONS
OF NORTHEASTERN AND EAST-CENTRAL NEVADA.
KENV HAS VCTS FROM TUE 22Z TO WED 02Z, AND PROB30 FOR TS AT KELY
FROM TUE 19Z TO WED 01Z. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE FROM THE SOUTH
AND EAST AT 10-15 KTS, WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 KTS AT KELY. HOWEVER,
VARIABLE WINDS WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 KTS ARE POSSIBLE DUE TO
DOWNDRAFTS AND STRONG OUTFLOW WINDS FROM NEARBY STORMS.
STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH BY THE MID- EVENING HOURS, WITH
DRY AND MILD CONDITIONS AT ALL TERMINALS TONIGHT.
FIRE WEATHER
ISOLATED, DRY THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED EACH AFTERNOON AND
EVENING TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY. THESE THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE
CONFINED TO ELKO AND WHITE PINE COUNTIES. NEAR RECORD HEAT IS
ANTICIPATED IN MOST OF NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NEVADA FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. RECORD HEAT IS EXPECTED IN THE MAJORITY OF NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL NEVADA SATURDAY AFTERNOON. A COOLING TREND IS ANTICIPATED
SUNDAY AND MONDAY. THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM COULD IMPACT NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL NEVADA SUNDAY EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT, RESULTING IN
PERIODS OF RAIN.
LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...87/90
AVIATION...90
FIRE WEATHER...87
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