221
FXUS65 KLKN 280832
AFDLKN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
132 AM PDT WED MAY 28 2025
KEY MESSAGES
* ISOLATED, DRY THUNDERSTORMS EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING TODAY
THROUGH THURSDAY IN ELKO AND WHITE PINE COUNTIES
* WARMING TREND TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY
* NEAR RECORD HEAT IS EXPECTED IN ELKO, WINNEMUCCA, ELY, AND
TONOPAH FRIDAY AFTERNOON
* RECORD HEAT IS ANTICIPATED IN ELKO, WINNEMUCCA, EUREKA, AND
TONOPAH SATURDAY AFTERNOON
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 125 AM PDT WED MAY 28 2025
WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW:
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS DOMINANT THROUGH SATURDAY AMIDST A
DEVELOPING REX BLOCK PATTERN WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES CONTINUING TO
INCREASE TO A MAXIMUM ON SATURDAY, TOPPING OUT IN THE MID TO UPPER
90S FOR MOST VALLEYS. WE CARRY ISOLATED 10-20% CHANCES DRY
THUNDERSTORMS MOSTLY IN NORTHERN ELKO COUNTY WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY AFTERNOON WITH RESIDUAL MOISTURE LINGERING BENEATH THE
RIDGE. THESE CHANCES DIMINISH INTO FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS THE
RIDGE FURTHER INTENSIFIES OVER THE GREAT BASIN NORTH OF WEAK
CUTOFF UPPER LOW OFF THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST. PEAK RIDGING
ON SATURDAY WILL PUSH SOME LOCATIONS TO NEAR THE CENTURY MARK,
ESPECIALLY INTO LANDER AND HUMBOLDT COUNTIES SUCH AS THE BLACK
ROCK DESERT, REESE RIVER VALLEY, AND BOULDER VALLEY.
HERE ARE THE PROBABILITIES FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES OF AT LEAST 95
DEGREES ON SATURDAY:
WINNEMUCCA - 98%
BATTLE MOUNTAIN - 90%
CARLIN - 70%
ELKO - 60%
WEST WENDOVER - 55%
TONOPAH - 55%
EUREKA - 45%
SPRING CREEK - 25%
ELY - 15%
AN INCOMING LONGWAVE TROUGH MOVES INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
SUNDAY, DIGGING FURTHER SOUTHWARD INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS
FINALLY KICKS THE UPPER LOW BACK INTO THE PARENT STORM TRACK AND
BREAKS DOWN THE REX BLOCK, LEADING TO A MORE UNSETTLED PATTERN
WITH INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWER AND A RETURN TO BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID 60S INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS:
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WELL-ABOVE NORMAL HIGH AND LOW TEMPERATURES
THROUGH SATURDAY. CONFIDENCE LOWERS IN DETAILS OF INCOMING TROUGH
AND RIDGE BREAKDOWN INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, THOUGH LONG RANGE
ENSEMBLE CLUSTER SCENARIOS AGREE IN THIS BREAKDOWN SOMETIME EARLY
NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL TERMINALS OVER THE
NEXT 24 HOURS. THERE IS A 15 TO 30% CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
PORTIONS OF NORTHEASTERN AND EAST-CENTRAL NEVADA THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH THE MID TO LATE EVENING HOURS, INCLUDES KEKO KENV AND
KELY. PRECIPITATION IN ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP IS EXPECTED TO BE
LIGHT, WITH ONLY A 10% CHANCE OF MEASURABLE RAINFALL (0.01 INCHES
OR GREATER).
FIRE WEATHER
ISOLATED DRY THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST EVERY AFTERNOON THROUGH
THURSDAY MAINLY FOR ELKO AND WHITE PINE COUNTIES DUE TO DIURNAL
HEATING PROCESSES. FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY, RECORD HEAT IS
POSSIBLE UNDER HIGH PRESSURE FOR MOST OF NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NV.
SUNDAY AND MONDAY A STORM SYSTEM IMPACTS THE GREAT BASIN RETURNING
ACTIVE WEATHER AND COOLER TEMPERATURES TO THE REGION.
LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...84
AVIATION...96
FIRE WEATHER...99
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