555
FXUS65 KLKN 281932
AFDLKN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
1232 PM PDT WED MAY 28 2025
KEY MESSAGES
* ISOLATED, DRY THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED EACH AFTERNOON AND
EVENING TODAY AND THURSDAY IN ELKO AND WHITE PINE COUNTIES.
* A WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY.
* NEAR RECORD HEAT IS EXPECTED IN ELKO, WINNEMUCCA, ELY, AND
TONOPAH FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
* RECORD HEAT IS ANTICIPATED IN ELKO, WINNEMUCCA, EUREKA, AND
TONOPAH SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1221 PM PDT WED MAY 28 2025
WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW:
A WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST AS HIGH PRESSURE
STRENGTHENS OVER THE WESTERN U.S, WHILE A CLOSED LOW OFFSHORE
SLOWLY DRIFTS INTO SOCAL. HIGHS WILL REACH INTO THE UPPER 80S TO
LOWER 90S WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S.
MEANWHILE, CURRENT SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS CUMULUS CLOUDS
DEVELOPING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. WEAK TO MODERATE INSTABILITY,
WITH CAPE VALUES OF 150-300 J/KG AND SUFFICIENT MOISTURE TRAPPED
BENEATH THE RIDGE, WILL SUPPORT A 10-20% OF DRY THUNDERSTORMS IN
NORTHERN ELKO AND WHITE PINE COUNTIES THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
CLOUD BASES ARE EXPECTED TO BE AT OR ABOVE 10K FT AGL.
THE NEXT CHANCE OF DRY THUNDERSTORMS (10-20%) WILL BE PRIMARILY
FOCUSED IN NORTHERN ELKO COUNTY THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
THE MAIN HAZARDS ASSOCIATED WITH ANY THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT
INCLUDE GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS NEAR 40 MPH AND FREQUENT CLOUD-TO-
GROUND LIGHTNING.
AN EASTERN PACIFIC RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND EASTWARD
ACROSS NORTHERN NEVADA FRIDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES FRIDAY AFTERNOON
WILL BE AROUND FIFTEEN DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
NEAR RECORD HEAT IS EXPECTED IN ELKO, WINNEMUCCA, ELY, EUREKA, AND
TONOPAH FRIDAY AFTERNOON. AN ANTICYCLONE ALOFT WILL DEVELOP OVER
NORTHERN NEVADA SATURDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES SATURDAY AFTERNOON
WILL BE AROUND FIFTEEN DEGREES ABOVE SEASONAL VALUES. RECORD HEAT
IS EXPECTED IN ELKO AND WINNEMUCCA SATURDAY AFTERNOON. NEAR RECORD
HEAT IS ANTICIPATED IN EUREKA AND TONOPAH SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THIS
TYPE OF HEAT WILL RESULT IN A MODERATE RISK FOR HEAT-RELATED
ILLNESSES. A HEAT ADVISORY MAY BE REQUIRED FOR HUMBOLDT COUNTY,
NORTHERN LANDER COUNTY, NORTHERN EUREKA COUNTY, AND SOUTHWESTERN
ELKO COUNTY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. HERE ARE PROBABILITIES OF MAXIMUM
TEMPERATURES OF 95 DEGREES OR HIGHER FOR SELECT LOCATIONS IN
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NEVADA ON SATURDAY, MAY 31ST, 2025:
WINNEMUCCA - 100%
BATTLE MOUNTAIN - 98%
CRESCENT VALLEY - 96%
CARLIN - 90%
ELKO - 85%
MCDERMITT - 85%
DENIO - 80%
TONOPAH - 65%
EUREKA - 60%
SPRING CREEK - 35%
THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER-LEVEL AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE
SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST SUNDAY. A CYCLONE ALOFT
WILL PROGRESS NORTHWARD INTO SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA SUNDAY NIGHT.
THIS UPPER-LEVEL AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL OPEN UP INTO A TROUGH
OF LOW PRESSURE AS IT MOVES INTO THE FOUR CORNERS OF THE UNITED
STATES MONDAY. A CYCLONE ALOFT WILL DROP SOUTHWARD FROM THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST INTO THE SILVER STATE MONDAY NIGHT. THIS
UPPER-LEVEL AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MEANDER AROUND NEVADA
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. A COOLING TREND IS EXPECTED SUNDAY
THROUGH TUESDAY. BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON, HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE
ELEVEN TO THIRTEEN DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
PERIODS OF PRECIPITATION ARE LIKELY SUNDAY EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY
NIGHT. THE MAJORITY OF THIS PRECIPITATION WILL FALL MONDAY
AFTERNOON AND MONDAY EVENING. SNOW LEVELS WILL DROP TO ABOUT 8,000
FEET MONDAY NIGHT. HERE ARE PROBABILITIES OF RAIN AMOUNTS OF ONE
QUARTER OF AN INCH OR MORE FOR SELECT LOCATIONS IN NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL NEVADA SUNDAY EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT:
JARBIDGE - 65%
WELLS - 60%
SPRING CREEK - 55%
JACKPOT - 55%
OWYHEE - 55%
MONTELLO - 50%
ELKO - 45%
ELY - 45%
EUREKA - 45%
CARLIN - 45%
FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS:
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WELL-ABOVE NORMAL HIGH AND LOW TEMPERATURES
THROUGH SATURDAY. THE LATEST CLUSTER ANALYSIS AND PROBABILISTIC
ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE ARE GRADUALLY CONVERGING ON THE TIMING OF THE
NEXT STORM SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST EARLY
NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL TERMINALS OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS. A 15-30% CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHEASTERN AND EAST-
CENTRAL NEVADA, INCLUDING KEKO, KENV, AND KELY. CIGS WILL BE FROM
FL100 TO FL200.
WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE FROM THE SOUTH AND WEST AT 10-15 KTS,
WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 KTS AT KTPH. HOWEVER, VARIABLE WINDS WITH
GUSTS UP TO 30 KTS ARE POSSIBLE DUE TO DOWNDRAFTS AND STRONG
OUTFLOW WINDS FROM NEARBY STORMS.
STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH BY THE MID- EVENING HOURS, WITH
DRY AND MILD CONDITIONS AT ALL TERMINALS TONIGHT.
AMD NOT SKED FOR KTPH DUE TO COMMUNICATION ISSUES.
FIRE WEATHER
WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH SATURDAY. THERE IS A
15-30% CHANCE OF DRY THUNDERSTORMS EACH AFTERNOON THROUGH
THURSDAY MAINLY FOR ELKO AND WHITE PINE COUNTIES. RECORD HEAT IS
ANTICIPATED SATURDAY AFTERNOON UNDER HIGH PRESSURE. A STORM SYSTEM
WILL IMPACT NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NEVADA FROM SUNDAY THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK, BRINGING WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS AND AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS.
LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...90/87
AVIATION...90
FIRE WEATHER...90
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