467
FXUS65 KLKN 290932
AFDLKN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
232 AM PDT THU MAY 29 2025
KEY MESSAGES
* ISOLATED, DRY THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED EACH AFTERNOON AND
EVENING TODAY AND FRIDAY IN ELKO AND WHITE PINE COUNTIES.
* A WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY.
* NEAR RECORD HEAT IS EXPECTED IN ELKO, WINNEMUCCA, ELY, AND
TONOPAH FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
* RECORD HEAT IS ANTICIPATED IN ELKO, WINNEMUCCA, EUREKA, AND
TONOPAH SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
DISCUSSION
TODAY THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 120 AM PDT THU MAY 29 2025
WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW:
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD OVER THE GREAT BASIN THURSDAY AS
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AMPLIFIES OVER THE SW CONUS. THE WARMING
TREND CONTINUES THURSDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND. AFTERNOON HIGHS ON
THURSDAY IN THE 80S AND 90S WILL INCREASE SLIGHTLY ON FRIDAY
THREATENING AREA RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES. THE PATTERN OF
AFTERNOON CONVECTION ALSO CONTINUES OVER NORTHEASTERN AND EAST
CENTRAL NV THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. DAYTIME HEATING PROCESSES LEAD TO
INSTABILITY OVER MAINLY ELKO AND WHITE PINE COUNTIES THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY AFTERNOON. PW VALUES IN THE 0.5-0.6 RANGE, HOWEVER, WILL
KEEP ANY CONVECTION THAT DOES INITIATE ON THE DRY SIDE.
LITTLE CHANGE IN THE FORECAST THIS WEEKEND WITH THE UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE PEAKING IN INTENSITY SATURDAY IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE REX
BLOCK ACROSS THE WESTERN U.S.
HERE ARE THE PROBABILITIES FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES OF AT LEAST 95
DEGREES ON SATURDAY:
WINNEMUCCA - 99%
BATTLE MOUNTAIN - 90%
CARLIN - 65%
ELKO - 65%
WEST WENDOVER - 45%
TONOPAH - 30%
EUREKA - 40%
SPRING CREEK - 15%
ELY - 5%
CONTINUING TO WATCH A PATTERN CHANGE INTO NEXT WEEK WITH AN
INCOMING AND AMPLIFYING SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT PICKS UP THE CUTOFF
UPPER LOW OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. MODEL
AGREEMENT GREATLY DIMINISHES EARLY NEXT WEEK IN REGARDS TO HOW
THIS UPPER LOW INTERACTS WITH THE INCOMING TROUGH. SOME LONG RANGE
ENSEMBLE CLUSTER SCENARIOS KEEP THE LOW SEPARATE AND OTHER MERGE
THEM AND STALL THE TROUGH OVER THE GREAT BASIN. THE LATTER
SCENARIO LINGERS THE TROUGH INTO THE MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK,
MAINTAINING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. ABOUT TWO
THIRDS OF THE LONG RANGE MEMBERS FAVOR A MORE PROGRESSIVE OUTCOME
AND A THIRD LINGER THE UPPER LOW MORE INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS:
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WELL-ABOVE NORMAL HIGH AND LOW TEMPERATURES
THROUGH SATURDAY. CONFIDENCE LOWERS IN DETAILS OF INCOMING TROUGH
AND RIDGE BREAKDOWN, ESPECIALLY BY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL TERMINALS OVER THE
NEXT 24 HOURS. MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES EARLY THIS MORNING WITH WINDS
LESS THAN 10 KNOTS. CUMULUS CLOUDS WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON
ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL NV AND NORTHEASTERN NV. BEST CHANCES (20%)
FOR THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING WILL BE IN FAR
NORTHEASTERN ELKO COUNTY UP NEAR THE IDAHO BORDER. THERE WILL
STILL BE A 5 TO 15% CHANCE OF TS AT OR NEAR KEKO KELY AND KENV,
ALTHOUGH RECENT GUIDANCE HAS BEEN LOWERING THESE PROBABILITIES
SLIGHTLY. FOR NOW KEEPING VCTS FOR KELY AND KENV THIS AFTERNOON,
HOWEVER CONFIDENCE IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF TS IS LOW.
AMD NOT SKED CONTINUES FOR KTPH DUE TO A COMMUNICATIONS ISSUES.
FIRE WEATHER
DAYTIME HEATING PROCESSES KEEP THE POSSIBILITY OF DRY
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST THURSDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND
MAINLY FOR ZONES 469/470/425. UNDER HIGH PRESSURE THE WARMING
TREND CONTINUES INTO THE WEEKEND FOR ALL ZONES POTENTIALLY
SETTING NEW HIGH TEMPERATURE RECORDS BOTH FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
WIND SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW CRITERIA INTO THE
WEEKEND FOR ALL FIRE ZONES IN THE WATCH AREA.
LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...99/84
AVIATION...96
FIRE WEATHER...99
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