718
FXUS65 KLKN 292039
AFDLKN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
139 PM PDT THU MAY 29 2025
KEY MESSAGES
* ISOLATED, DRY THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED IN NORTHERN ELKO
COUNTY THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING.
* NEAR RECORD HEAT IS ANTICIPATED IN NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NEVADA
FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
* RECORD HEAT IS EXPECTED IN MOST OF NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NEVADA
SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
* PERIODS OF RAIN LIKELY SUNDAY EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1130AM PDT THU MAY 29 2025
WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW: ISOLATED, DRY THUNDERSTORMS ARE
ANTICIPATED IN NORTHERN ELKO COUNTY UNTIL ABOUT 8 PM PDT THIS
EVENING. A FEW OF THESE THUNDERSTORMS COULD BE STRONG. THE PRIMARY
THUNDERSTORM HAZARDS WILL BE WIND GUSTS NEAR 40 MPH AND DANGEROUS
CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING STRIKES. AN EASTERN PACIFIC RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS NORTHERN NEVADA
TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. HIGH TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NEVADA FRIDAY AFTERNOON WILL BE AROUND
FIFTEEN DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. NEAR RECORD
HEAT IS EXPECTED IN ELKO, WINNEMUCCA, ELY, EUREKA, AND TONOPAH
FRIDAY AFTERNOON. HERE ARE PROBABILITIES OF MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES
OF 90 DEGREES OR HIGHER FOR SELECT LOCATIONS IN NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL NEVADA ON FRIDAY, MAY 30TH, 2025:
WINNEMUCCA - 100%
TONOPAH - 100%
BATTLE MOUNTAIN - 98%
ELKO - 96%
CARLIN - 96%
EUREKA - 90%
WEST WENDOVER - 90%
MCDERMITT - 65%
ELY - 50%
SPRING CREEK - 35%
A WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST AS HIGH PRESSURE
STRENGTHENS OVER THE WESTERN U.S, WHILE A CLOSED LOW OFFSHORE
SLOWLY DRIFTS INTO SOCAL. HIGHS WILL REACH INTO THE UPPER 80S TO
LOWER 90S WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S. BY
SATURDAY AFTERNOON, HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE AROUND 15 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. NEAR-RECORD TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED IN ELKO, WINNEMUCCA, EUREKA, AND TONOPAH. WINDS WILL BE
BREEZY AT TIMES, WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 MPH.
ENSEMBLE AND CLUSTER ANALYSIS CONTINUE TO SHOW UNCERTAINTY IN THE
TIMING AND EVOLUTION OF A TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST EARLY NEXT WEEK. MODEL DIFFERENCES REMAIN REGARDING HOW
A CLOSED LOW NEAR SOCAL WILL INTERACT WITH THE BROADER TROUGH,
WHICH COULD AFFECT PRECIPITATION TIMING AND WIND IMPACTS.
UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO RETURN SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY,
BRINGING WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS, BREEZY TO GUSTY WINDS, AND
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS. SOME
STORMS MAY PRODUCE OUTFLOW WINDS OF 40–50 MPH AND LOCALIZED
BLOWING DUST.
A COOLER AIRMASS WILL FOLLOW, DROPPING HIGHS INTO THE MID TO UPPER
60S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS INTO THE 30S AND 40S BY TUESDAY. ZONAL TO
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW MAY PERSIST MIDWEEK, MAINTAINING BREEZY AND
SEASONABLY COOL CONDITIONS.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS: FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGH
REGARDING ISOLATED, DRY THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND NEAR
RECORD TO RECORD HEAT FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND SATURDAY AFTERNOON. IN
ADDITION, FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGH REGARDING PRECIPITATION
EARLY NEXT WEEK. FORECAST CONFIDENCE DECREASES REGARDING TIMING OF
THE PRECIPITATION EARLY NEXT WEEK. NO CHANGES TO THE NBM OUTPUT.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL TERMINALS OVER THE
NEXT 24 HOURS. A 10-20% CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHEASTERN AND EAST-
CENTRAL NEVADA, INCLUDING KEKO, KENV, AND KELY. CIGS WILL BE FROM
FL100 TO FL200.
STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH BY THE MID- EVENING HOURS, WITH
DRY AND MILD CONDITIONS AT ALL TERMINALS TONIGHT.
AMD NOT SKED CONTINUES FOR KTPH DUE TO COMMUNICATION ISSUES.
FIRE WEATHER
ISOLATED, DRY THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED IN NORTHERN ELKO COUNTY
THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. A FEW OF THESE THUNDERSTORMS MAY
BE STRONG. THE PRIMARY THUNDERSTORM HAZARDS WILL BE ERRATIC WIND
GUSTS NEAR 40 MPH AND DANGEROUS CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING STRIKES.
NEAR RECORD HEAT IS ANTICIPATED THROUGHOUT NORTHERN AND CENTRAL
NEVADA FRIDAY AFTERNOON. RECORD HEAT IS EXPECTED IN THE MAJORITY
OF NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NEVADA SATURDAY AFTERNOON. A COOLING TREND
IS ANTICIPATED SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM WILL
IMPACT NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NEVADA SUNDAY EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY
NIGHT, RESULTING IN PERIODS OF RAIN.
LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...87/90
AVIATION...90
FIRE WEATHER...87
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