116
FXUS65 KLKN 310022 AAA
AFDLKN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
520 PM PDT FRI MAY 30 2025
KEY MESSAGES
* RECORD TO NEAR RECORD HEAT SATURDAY AFTERNOON
* PERIODS OF RAIN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY THRU MONDAY
ALONG WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES
DISCUSSION
(THIS EVENING THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 217 PM PDT FRI MAY 30 2025
WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW: DRY AND FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS PERSIST
THRU TONIGHT UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES
RESIDE IN THE MID 40S TO MID 50S. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE REMAINS THE
DOMINANT FEATURE SATURDAY AS A CLOSED UPPER LOW CONCURRENTLY
CIRCULATES OFFSHORE OF SOCAL/THE BAJA PENINSULA. PACIFIC TROF
BEGINS MOVING INTO THE WEST COAST SATURDAY NIGHT WITH THE RIDGE
PROGRESSING EAST IN ACCORDANCE. UPPER LEVEL FLOW SHIFTS
SOUTHWESTERLY OVER THE REGION IN RESPONSE. MAIN ITEMS OF NOTE
SATURDAY WILL BE THE CONTINUED WARMING TREND WITH TEMPERATURES
EXPECTED TO PEAK SATURDAY, RUNNING AROUND 15 DEGREES WARMER THAN
NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. RECORD TO NEAR RECORD DAILY HIGH
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED AND OBSERVATIONS IN THE MID 80S TO MID
90S ARE FORECAST. ANOTHER AFTERNOON OF CUMULUS BUILDUPS EXPECTED
ACROSS NORTHERN NYE AND SOUTHERN WHITE PINE COUNTY SATURDAY.
INSTABILITY AND PWATS LOOK BARELY HIGH ENOUGH TO PRODUCE DIURNALLY
DRIVEN VIRGA AND A DRY THUNDERSTORM OR TWO, WITH AREAL COVERAGE
ACROSS CENTRAL NEVADA REMAINING WELL BELOW 15%. STRONG AND ERRATIC
OUTFLOW WINDS AS WELL AS OCCASIONAL CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING CAN
BE EXPECTED UNDER ANY DRY THUNDERSTORMS. FAIR CONDITIONS SATURDAY
NIGHT WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S TO UPPER 50S.
SLIGHTLY COOLER ON SUNDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH BEGINS ITS
PASSAGE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED AHEAD OF AND ALONG WITH THIS SYSTEM
AND LOOK TO IMPACT ALL BUT WESTERN HUMBOLDT COUNTY BETWEEN SUNDAY
AND MONDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE MUCH COOLER ON MONDAY, WITH
DAYTIME HIGHS DROPPING NEARLY TEN DEGREES INTO THE UPPER 70S AND
LOW 80S. SHOWERS EXIT OVERNIGHT INTO TUESDAY BUT TEMPERATURES
REMAIN RIGHT AROUND NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S. WEDNESDAY
LOOKS MUCH THE SAME, WITH TEMPERATURES A DEGREE OR TWO WARMER THAN
TUESDAY. A SMALL CHANCE FOR A SHOWER OR TWO EXISTS ON TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY, BUT CONFIDENCE IN THE WHERE AND WHEN IS CURRENTLY TOO
LOW TO SAY ANYTHING FOR SURE. WARMING CONTINUES THROUGH THE END OF
THE WEEK AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BEGINS TO REBUILD. THURSDAY LOOKS
TO HAVE HIGH TEMPERATURES MOSTLY IN THE 80S AND FRIDAY WILL BE A
FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN THAT. BOTH DAYS ALSO LOOK TO REMAIN DRY AT
THIS TIME.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS: HIGH CONFIDENCE IN RECORD HEAT
ON SATURDAY. INCREASING CONFIDENCE IN UNSETTLED WEATHER WITH
COOLER TEMPERATURES EARLY NEXT WEEK, THOUGH CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW
PERTAINING TO RAINFALL ACCUMULATION.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL SITES THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE
POSSIBILITY OF AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM AT KELY THIS
AFTERNOON CANNOT BE RULED OUT BUT CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW FOR TAF
INCLUSION.
AMD NOT SKED CONTINUES FOR KTPH DUE TO A COMMUNICATIONS ISSUE.
FIRE WEATHER
TEMPERATURES REMAIN MUCH WARMER THAN NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR,
PEAKING ON SATURDAY WITH READINGS RUNNING AROUND 15 DEGREES WARMER
THAN NORMAL AND RECORD TO NEAR RECORD DAILY HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE
FORECAST. ANOTHER AFTERNOON OF CUMULUS BUILDUPS EXPECTED ACROSS
ZONES 427, 426, AND 425 SATURDAY AS WELL. INSTABILITY AND PWATS
LOOK BARELY HIGH ENOUGH TO PRODUCE DIURNALLY DRIVEN VIRGA AND A
DRY THUNDERSTORM OR TWO, WITH AREAL COVERAGE OF THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS CENTRAL NEVADA REMAINING WELL BELOW 15%. GRADIENT WINDS
REMAIN GENERALLY LIGHT UNDER HIGH PRESSURE THROUGH SATURDAY,
THOUGH AFTERNOON BREEZES ACROSS ZONE 437 ARE EXPECTED WITH GUSTS
20 TO 25 MPH. BOUT OF ACTIVE WEATHER BEGINS SUNDAY AND PERSISTS
THRU AT LEAST MONDAY WITH RAIN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
FORECAST BOTH DAYS. THERE WILL BE OPPORTUNITY FOR WETTING RAINS
WITH THE SUNDAY AND MONDAY EVENT, THOUGH ZONES 437 AND 424 LOOK TO
REMAIN MOSTLY DRY. DAYTIME HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE TEN DEGREES
OR MORE COOLER ON MONDAY COMPARED TO SATURDAY. LOWER POTENTIAL FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THE LATTER PORTION OF NEXT WEEK WITH ANY
ACTIVITY LIKELY TO BE MOSTLY DRY IN NATURE.
LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TO 8 PM PDT SATURDAY FOR NVZ030-036-038.
DISCUSSION...92/94
AVIATION...94
FIRE WEATHER...92
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