477
FXUS65 KLKN 312148
AFDLKN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
248 PM PDT SAT MAY 31 2025
KEY MESSAGES
* ISOLATED TO SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY
EVENING THRU MONDAY ALONG WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES
* LOW PROBABILITY FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY
* ANOTHER WARMING TREND THRU THE LATTER HALF OF NEXT WEEK
DISCUSSION
(THIS EVENING THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 124 PM PDT SAT MAY 31 2025
WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW: DRY CONVECTION ACROSS PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL NEVADA WILL DISSIPATE THRU THIS EVENING WITH WEATHER
BECOMING FAIR ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES REMAIN
PRESENT OVER CENTRAL NEVADA WITH CLEARER CONDITIONS NORTH.
OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES RESIDE MOSTLY IN THE 50S. WEATHER
BECOMES MORE ACTIVE BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS AN UPPER TROF AND
ATTENDANT MODEST COLD FRONT PASS THRU THE PACNW AND GREAT BASIN
WHILE A CLOSED UPPER LOW CONCURRENTLY EJECTS TO THE NORTHEAST
FROM THE COAST OF SOCAL. SHOWERS AND A MIX OF WET AND DRY
AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED WITH THE BEST CHANCES FOR
WETTING RAINS (ACCUMULATIONS GREATER THAN 0.10 INCH) OVER THE HIGH
TERRAIN AND ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. EXPECT
NORTHERLY BREEZES ACROSS NORTHERN NEVADA SUNDAY AS WELL WITH GUSTS
25 TO 35 MPH, MORE VARIABLE AND MODEST ACROSS CENTRAL NEVADA.
ELEVATED WINDS AND SHOWERS PERSIST SUNDAY NIGHT. SLIGHTLY COOLER
TEMPERATURES SUNDAY IN RESPONSE TO A COOLER AIR MASS MOVING IN
AND DAYTIME HIGHS WILL BE IN THE MID 80S TO MID 90S. OVERNIGHT
LOWS RESIDE IN THE MID 40S TO MID 50S.
A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE SOUTHERN HALF OF
THE FORECAST AREA FOR MONDAY AS THE LOW TO THE SOUTH IS PUSHED
EAST BY A NEW LOW OVER THE CALIFORNIA COAST. HIGH TEMPERATURES
WILL BE NEAR NORMAL IN THE UPPER 70S AND LOW 80S. TUESDAY LOOKS
VERY SIMILAR AS NORTHWEST FLOW SETS UP OVER NEVADA. A LOW CHANCE
FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS PERSISTS IN NORTHERN NYE AND WHITE PINE
COUNTIES WHILE EVERYWHERE ELSE LOOKS TO REMAIN DRY. TEMPERATURES
WILL AGAIN BE NEAR NORMAL, WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S AND LOW 80S.
OVERNIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY THE LOW GETS ABSORBED INTO A BROADER
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. VERY LITTLE CHANGES LOCALLY, WITH TEMPERATURES
GENERALLY ABOUT TWO DEGREES WARMER COMPARED TO TUESDAY AND DRY
CONDITIONS CONTINUING. THURSDAY LOOKS TO KICK OFF A WARMING TREND.
THE SETUP ALSO APPEARS CONDUCIVE TO SOME ISOLATED AFTERNOON
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SOUTH OF I-80, ALTHOUGH THERE’S STILL
ONLY MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN LOCATION. FRIDAY AND SATURDAY LOOK
DRY AT THIS TIME WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES RETURNING TO THE UPPER 80S
TO MID 90S BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS: NUMERICAL MODEL SOLUTIONS
CONTINUE TO TREND LOWER WITH RAINFALL ACCUMULATION FOR THE SUNDAY
THRU MONDAY EVENT. ANTICIPATING DRY CONVECTION THURSDAY AFTERNOON
BUT MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN AREAL COVERAGE IS ACKNOWLEDGED.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT ALL SITES THROUGH THE NEXT
12 HOURS, HOWEVER AFTERNOON VCTS AT KELY AND KTPH COULD CAUSE
SHORT LIVED STRONG WINDS AND DECREASED VISIBILITY. LONGER LIVED
GUSTY WINDS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING AT KWMC, KTPH AND
KELY.
FIRE WEATHER
WIDER SPREAD UNSETTLED WEATHER MOVES BACK INTO THE FORECAST AREA
BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON, PERSISTING THRU AT LEAST MONDAY. MIX OF
ISOLATED WET AND DRY THUNDERSTORMS IS FORECAST FOR ALL ZONES,
THOUGH ANY ACTIVITY WITHIN ZONE 437 WILL BE WELL UNDER 15%
COVERAGE. THAT SAID, NUMERICAL MODEL SOLUTIONS CONTINUE TO TREND
LOWER WITH RAIN ACCUMULATIONS COMPARED TO TWO OR THREE DAYS AGO.
BEST CHANCES FOR WETTING RAINS WILL BE OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN AND
ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. SOUTHWESTERLY YET
VARIABLE WINDS TONIGHT WILL INCREASE AND SHIFT NORTHERLY ACROSS
NORTHERN NEVADA SUNDAY WITH WINDS REMAINING MORE MODEST ACROSS
CENTRAL NEVADA. STRONGEST GUSTS WILL BE ACROSS ZONE 437 AT 25 TO
35 MPH. MOSTLY DRY MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH AFTERNOON BREEZES.
INCREASED CHANCE FOR DRY THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY, PRIMARILY ACROSS
THE EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA.
LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR NVZ030-036-038.
DISCUSSION...92/94
AVIATION...94
FIRE WEATHER...92
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