625
FXUS65 KLKN 290920
AFDLKN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
220 AM PDT SUN JUN 29 2025
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 218 AM PDT SUN JUN 29 2025
* WARMING TREND THROUGH MONDAY
* MODERATE RISK FOR HEAT-RELATED ILLNESSES IN THE VALLEYS OF
NORTHERN NEVADA BOTH MONDAY AFTERNOON AND TUESDAY AFTERNOON
* ELEVATED TO CRITICAL RISK OF WILDFIRES IN CENTRAL NEVADA BOTH
MONDAY AND TUESDAY
* ISOLATED, DRY THUNDERSTORMS EACH AFTERNOON IN PARTS OF NORTHERN
NEVADA MONDAY THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY
DISCUSSION
(TODAY THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 218 AM PDT SUN JUN 29 2025
* WARMING TREND TODAY THROUGH MONDAY
* MODERATE RISK FOR HEAT-RELATED ILLNESSES IN THE VALLEYS OF
NORTHERN NEVADA BOTH MONDAY AFTERNOON AND TUESDAY AFTERNOON
* ELEVATED TO CRITICAL RISK OF WILDFIRES IN CENTRAL NEVADA BOTH
MONDAY AND TUESDAY
* ISOLATED, DRY THUNDERSTORMS EACH AFTERNOON IN PARTS OF NORTHERN
NEVADA MONDAY THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY
WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW:
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND UPPER-LEVE RIDGE ALOFT WILL PEAK IN
INTENSITY MONDAY WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE AVERAGE IN THE
MID TO UPPER 90S FOR MOST LOCATIONS. THOSE VULNERABLE TO HEAT-
RELATED ILLNESSES SHOULD LIMIT EXERTION OUTDOORS, AND ALL SHOULD
LIMIT EXERTION DURING PEAK HEATING EACH AFTERNOON SUNDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY, PUSHING EXERCISE OR WORK TO THE MORNING OR EVENING, IF
POSSIBLE.
HIGHS DECREASE A FEW DEGREES AS THE RIDGE SHIFTS EASTWARD AHEAD
OF A CLOSED UPPER LOW THAT WILL MOVE ONTO THE CALIFORNIA COAST
TUESDAY. HIGHS CONTINUE TO TREND SLIGHTLY COOLER IN THE UPPER 80S
AND LOWER 90S THROUGH THE MIDDLE AND LATTER HALF OF NEXT WEEK AS
THE CLOSED UPPER LOW MOVES OVERHEAD. THIS BRINGS AN UPTICK IN
MOISTURE CONTENT, WHICH WILL LEAD TO ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS NEARLY
EVERY AFTERNOON AND EVENING, WITH GREATEST CHANCES OF 20-30% FOR
THUNDERSTORMS ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS THE AFOREMENTIONED
CLOSED LOW OPENS UP INTO THE MAIN STORM TRACK WITH A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH MOVING INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS:
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN HEAT THROUGH TUESDAY, WITH LOWER CONFIDENCE IN
EXACT PLACEMENT OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. LONG
RANGE ENSEMBLE CLUSTERS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH MOST OF THE
UPCOMING WORKWEEK WITH THE TRACK OF THE CLOSED LOW COMING INTO
BETTER AGREEMENT MORE INTO SOUTH-CENTRAL NEVADA NOW.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL TERMINALS OVER THE
NEXT 24 HOURS. SCATTERED TO BROKEN CLOUDS WITH CIGS RANGING FROM
FL100 TO FL180 WILL BE PRESENT ACROSS NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NV
TODAY, PRIMARILY IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AFTERNOON BREEZES
ALSO PRESENT WITH GUSTS AROUND 20 KTS. WINDS AGAIN SUBSIDE THRU
THE EVENING BETWEEN 00Z AND 01Z MONDAY WITH SKY COVER ALSO
DISSIPATING.
AMD NOT SKED FOR KELY DUE TO VISIBILITY SENSOR ISSUES.
FIRE WEATHER
WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE STRENGTHENS TO OUR SE, AND BEGINS TO
INTERACT WITH A UPPER TROUGH OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST THROUGH THE
HOLIDAY WEEK, BRINGING SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW OVER THE
REGION. WHILE CRITICAL THRESHOLDS ARE NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME,
ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE DUE TO MINIMUM
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES REMAINING NEAR 10% TO 15% AND SUSTAINED
WINDS OF 15-20 MPH, WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH. AN ADDITIONAL ELEMENT
WILL ENTER THE PICTURE BEGINNING MONDAY THANKS TO THE UPPER FLOW,
THERE WILL BE A 10-20% CHANCE OF ISOLATED DRY THUNDERSTORMS,
EVOLVING TO A 50/50 MIX OF WET AND DRY THUNDERSTORMS AS THE WEEK
PROGRESSES. EXPECTED COVERAGE OF THESE STORMS IS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN AT ISOLATED LEVELS WITH THE MAIN HAZARDS OF A FEW CLOUD TO
GROUND LIGHTNING STRIKES, AND GUST ERRATIC OUTFLOW WIND GUSTS UP
TO 45MPH POSSIBLE.
LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...92
AVIATION...84
FIRE WEATHER...98
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