132
FXUS65 KLKN 291937
AFDLKN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
1237 PM PDT SUN JUN 29 2025
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1237 PM PDT SUN JUN 29 2025
* HEAT ADVISORY FOR SOUTHWESTERN ELKO COUNTY, NORTHERN EUREKA
COUNTY, NORTHERN LANDER COUNTY, AND HUMBOLDT COUNTY MONDAY
* MODERATE RISK FOR HEAT-RELATED ILLNESSES IN THE VALLEYS OF
NORTHERN NEVADA TUESDAY AFTERNOON
* CRITICAL RISK OF WILDFIRES IN CENTRAL NEVADA TUESDAY
* A FEW STRONG THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING
TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
DISCUSSION
(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1237 PM PDT SUN JUN 29 2025
WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW: A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND
NORTHWESTWARD ACROSS NORTHERN NEVADA THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
MONDAY. THERE IS AN ELEVATED RISK OF WILDFIRES IN CENTRAL NEVADA
MONDAY DUE TO SOUTH WIND GUSTS NEAR 25 MPH AND MINIMUM RELATIVE
HUMIDITY VALUES AS LOW AS 7 PERCENT. HIGH TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT
NORTHERN NEVADA MONDAY AFTERNOON WILL BE AROUND TEN DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. A HEAT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR
SOUTHWESTERN ELKO COUNTY, NORTHERN EUREKA COUNTY, NORTHERN LANDER
COUNTY, AND HUMBOLDT COUNTY FROM 11 AM PDT MONDAY MORNING UNTIL 9
PM PDT MONDAY EVENING. HERE ARE PROBABILITIES OF MAXIMUM
TEMPERATURES OF 95 DEGREES OR HIGHER FOR SELECT LOCATIONS IN
NORTHERN NEVADA ON MONDAY, JUNE 30TH, 2025:
WINNEMUCCA - 99%
ELKO - 98%
BATTLE MOUNTAIN - 98%
CRESCENT VALLEY - 98%
CARLIN - 97%
MCDERMITT - 96%
WEST WENDOVER - 90%
DENIO - 90%
SPRING CREEK - 70%
MONTELLO - 55%
AN UPPER-LEVEL AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MEANDER AROUND THE
EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN TUESDAY, JUST OFF THE COAST OF CENTRAL
CALIFORNIA. HIGH TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT NORTHERN NEVADA TUESDAY
AFTERNOON WILL BE SEVEN TO NINE DEGREES ABOVE SEASONAL VALUES.
THIS WILL RESULT IN A MODERATE RISK FOR HEAT-RELATED ILLNESSES IN
THE VALLEYS OF NORTHERN NEVADA. ALTHOUGH HEAT EVENTS LIKE THIS ARE
RELATIVELY COMMON AND HAPPEN MANY TIMES A YEAR, HEAT-RELATED
IMPACTS ARE POSSIBLE FOR THOSE NEW TO THE AREA IF SIMPLE
PRECAUTIONS ARE NOT TAKEN. A HEAT ADVISORY MAY BE REQUIRED. THERE
IS A MAJOR RISK OF WILDFIRES IN CENTRAL NEVADA TUESDAY DUE TO
SOUTHERLY WIND GUSTS NEAR 35 MPH AND MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY
VALUES AS LOW AS 6 PERCENT. A RED FLAG WARNING MAY BE REQUIRED.
THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER-LEVEL AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MAKE
LANDFALL OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA WEDNESDAY. THIS CYCLONE ALOFT
WILL OPEN UP INTO A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE THURSDAY AS IT MOVES
EASTWARD ACROSS SOUTHERN NEVADA. A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL
PASS EASTWARD OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST FRIDAY. ANOTHER
ATMOSPHERIC DISTURBANCE MAY MOVE OVER CENTRAL CALIFORNIA FRIDAY
INTO SATURDAY. THIS DISTURBANCE COULD IMPACT THE SERVICE AREA
NEXT SUNDAY. ISOLATED, DRY THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND
TUESDAY EVENING WILL TRANSITION TO AN ISOLATED MIX OF WET AND DRY
THUNDERSTORMS EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING WEDNESDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY AS ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE INCREASES.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS: HIGH FORECAST CONFIDENCE
REGARDING A MODERATE RISK FOR HEAT-RELATED ILLNESSES IN
THE VALLEYS OF NORTHERN NEVADA TUESDAY AFTERNOON. HIGH FORECAST
CONFIDENCE IN A CRITICAL RISK OF WILDFIRES IN CENTRAL NEVADA
TUESDAY. MODERATE FORECAST CONFIDENCE REGARDING THE HEAT ADVISORY
MONDAY. LOW FORECAST CONFIDENCE IN THE LOCATION OF THUNDERSTORMS
TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL TERMINALS OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS. SCATTERED TO BROKEN CLOUDS WITH CIGS RANGING FROM FL100 TO
FL180 WILL BE PRESENT ACROSS NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NV. AFTERNOON
INSTABILITY MAY INITIATE AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS, HOWEVER, DUE TO
LIMITED COVERAGE AND LOW PROBABILITY, THUNDERSTORMS WERE NOT
INCLUDED IN THE TAFS.
AFTERNOON BREEZES WITH GUSTS UP TO 18 KTS WILL SUBSIDE BETWEEN
01Z AND 02Z MONDAY AT KTPH. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE OUT OF
THE N-NE STARTING AROUND 05Z MONDAY AT KEKO AND KWMC, WITH GUSTS
OF 20-30 KTS. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE OVERNIGHT.
AMD NOT SKED FOR KELY DUE TO VISIBILITY SENSOR ISSUES.
FIRE WEATHER
WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY NEXT
WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE STRENGTHENS OVER THE WESTERN U.S., WHILE A
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM REMAINS SITUATED OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST.
ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE MONDAY DUE TO
MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES REMAINING BELOW 15% AND SUSTAINED
WINDS OF 15-20 MPH, WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH. CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN CENTRAL NEVADA TUESDAY.
INCREASING INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE LOW WILL BRING A
10-20% CHANCE OF ISOLATED DRY THUNDERSTORMS, PRIMARILY NORTH OF
THE I-80 CORRIDOR ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY. AS THE WEEK PROGRESSES, A
MIX OF WET AND DRY THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO
MIDWEEK.
LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM TO 9 PM PDT MONDAY FOR NVZ030-036-038.
DISCUSSION...87
AVIATION...90
FIRE WEATHER...90
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