883
FXUS65 KLKN 300844
AFDLKN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
144 AM PDT MON JUN 30 2025
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 142 AM PDT MON JUN 30 2025
* HEAT ADVISORY FOR SOUTHWESTERN ELKO COUNTY, NORTHERN EUREKA
COUNTY, NORTHERN LANDER COUNTY, AND HUMBOLDT COUNTY MONDAY
* MODERATE RISK FOR HEAT-RELATED ILLNESSES IN THE VALLEYS OF
NORTHERN NEVADA TUESDAY AFTERNOON
* CRITICAL RISK OF WILDFIRES IN CENTRAL NEVADA TUESDAY
* A FEW STRONG THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING
TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
DISCUSSION
(TODAY THROUGH NEXT MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 142 AM PDT MON JUN 30 2025
WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW: THE START OF THE FORECAST SEES THE
COVERAGE AREA CENTERED BETWEEN LOW PRESSURE TO THE WEST AND HIGH
PRESSURE TO THE EAST, A PATTERN THAT LOOKS TO PERSIST FOR SEVERAL
DAYS. IMPACTS FROM THIS SETUP ON MONDAY LOOK MINIMAL, WITH
GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO SOAR INTO THE MID
TO UPPER 90S ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. AS A RESULT, A HEAT ADVISORY
IS IN EFFECT FOR SOUTHWESTERN ELKO COUNTY, NORTHERN EUREKA
COUNTY, NORTHERN LANDER COUNTY, AND HUMBOLDT COUNTY FROM 11 AM PDT
MONDAY MORNING UNTIL 9 PM PDT MONDAY EVENING. CONDITIONS ON
TUESDAY LOOK TO BE MUCH THE SAME, ALTHOUGH THE ADDITION OF
STRONGER WINDS IS EXPECTED TO LEAD TO NEAR OR CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS. TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY DROP BACK INTO THE 80S
ACROSS THE AREA AND LOOK TO STAY THERE UNTIL FRIDAY BEFORE WARMING
UP AGAIN THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT MONDAY. ADDITIONALLY,
AFTERNOON THUNDER IS POSSIBLE EVERY DAY THROUGH SATURDAY,
BEGINNING AS ISOLATED DRY THUNDER EARLY IN THE WEEK WITH MORE WET
THUNDERSTORMS MIXING IN AS THE WEEK PROGRESSES AND ATMOSPHERIC
MOISTURE INCREASES.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS: CONTINUED HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR A
MODERATE RISK OF HEAT-RELATED ILLNESSES AT LOWER ELEVATIONS IN
NORTHERN NEVADA TODAY AND TOMORROW. HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR CRITICAL
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ON TUESDAY. INCREASING, BUT STILL MODERATE
CONFIDENCE IN LOCATIONS FOR THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THURSDAY AND LOW
CONFIDENCE BEYOND THEN.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
VFR CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED AT ALL TERMINALS THROUGH MONDAY
EVENING. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST MONDAY AFTERNOON FOR
KEKO AND KELY WHERE WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY AND ERRATIC IN AND
AROUND ANY THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THAT OCCURS. WIND GUSTS CURRENTLY
AT KWMC AND KEKO BETWEEN 25-30KTS WILL DIMINISH BY MID MORNING ON
MONDAY. AFTERNOON DIURNAL BREEZES WILL GUST 22-25KTS AT KTPH,
KELY, AND KEKO BEFORE FALLING BELOW 11KTS AFTER SUNSET MONDAY
EVENING.
AMD NOT SKED FOR KELY DUE TO VISIBILITY SENSOR ISSUES.
FIRE WEATHER
WARM AND BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEK
AS A STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR SE,
INTERACTS WITH A UPPER TROUGH OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST. AS THESE
TWO FEATURES HAVE MEET, THE MID-LEVEL AND UPPER LEVEL FLOW HAS
TURNED TO BE OUT OF A SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHEASTERLY DIRECTION.
FORECAST/MODEL SURFACE CONDITIONS FOR THE WEEK SHOW THAT CRITICAL
FIRE WEATHER THRESHOLDS ARE NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER,
ELEVATED TO NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE
DUE TO MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES REMAINING NEAR 10% TO 15%
AND SUSTAINED WINDS OF 10-20 MPH, WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH DURING
THE AFTERNOONS. AN ADDITIONAL ELEMENT WILL ENTER THE PICTURE
STARTING MONDAY THANKS TO THE UPPER FLOW, THERE WILL BE A 10-20%
CHANCE OF ISOLATED DRY THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE
WEEK, EVOLVING TO A 50/50 MIX OF WET AND DRY THUNDERSTORMS FOR
THURSDAY LASTING THROUGH THE WEEKEND. EXPECTED COVERAGE OF THESE
STORMS IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN AT ISOLATED LEVELS, THE AREAS THAT
WILL HAVE THE BEST CHANCES TO SEE STORMS HAVE BEEN UNCERTAIN AS
MODELS HAVE HIGHLIGHTED DIFFERENT AREAS FOR EACH NEW RUN. AS OF
NOW, N NV SEEMS TO HAVE THE BEST CHANCES, HOWEVER THERE IS STILL A
GROUP OF MODELS THAT FAVOR CENTRAL NV AS WELL. STORMS THAT DO FORM
THIS WEEK WILL HAVE TWO MAIN HAZARDS. FIRST, CLOUD TO GROUND
LIGHTNING STRIKES, AND SECOND GUST ERRATIC OUTFLOW WIND GUSTS UP
TO 45MPH POSSIBLE, BY LATE WEEK A FEW STORMS WILL ADD BRIEF HEAVY
RAINFALL AS A TERTIARY HAZARD.
LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 9 PM PDT THIS EVENING
FOR NVZ030-036-038.
DISCUSSION...94
AVIATION...99
FIRE WEATHER...98
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