812
FXUS65 KLKN 030842
AFDLKN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
142 AM PDT THU JUL 3 2025
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 112 AM PDT THU JUL 3 2025
* A MIX OF WET AND DRY THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED EACH AFTERNOON AND
EVENING TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY WITH LIGHTING AND GUSTY WINDS
POSSIBLE.
* HIGH TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEKEND WILL BE IN THE 80S AND 90S
WHILE OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL DIP INTO THE 50S AND 60S.
* FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING, FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS BECOME
CRITICAL OVER PORTIONS OF EAST-CENTRAL NEVADA DUE TO STRONG
WINDS AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY. OTHER AREAS WILL REMAIN
ELEVATED.
DISCUSSION
(TONIGHT THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 112 AM PDT THU JUL 3 2025
WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW: CURRENT SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES OVER THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING. THE AREA IS
CURRENTLY SITTING NORTH OF AN UPPER LOW ACROSS SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA
WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. IN ADDITION, ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH IS
COMING INTO VIEW FROM THE EASTERN PACIFIC, AND ITS AXIS IS
EXPECTED TO CROSS INTO NORTHERN CALIFORNIA AND WESTERN OREGON
LATER THIS AFTERNOON. FOR TODAY, THE SOUTHERN TROUGH WILL SLOWLY
MOVE TO THE EAST. SUFFICIENT MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY THIS
AFTERNOON WILL ALLOW FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF THUNDERSTORMS (ABOUT
10 TO 15%) AND SHOWERS (30 TO 40%) BUT RAINFALL OVER OBSERVATION
PLATFORMS HAS BEEN SPARSE. WINDS GUSTS WILL BE AROUND 25 MPH. ANY
OUTFLOWS FROM THUNDERSTORMS COULD PRODUCE WINDS TO 50 MPH. HIGHS
TODAY WILL BE IN THE 80S AND 90S. OVERNIGHT SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED
THOUGH COVERAGE WILL REMAIN AT ABOUT 30 TO 40%. LOWS WILL BE IN
THE 40S AND 50S.
ON FRIDAY, THE NORTHERN TROUGH WILL SKIP ACROSS THE NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA, NORTH INTO OREGON AND IDAHO.
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY CONTINUES TO BE EXPECTED IN NORTHERN AND
EASTERN NEVADA. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 70S AND 80S. WIND GUSTS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE AROUND 25 MPH, THOUGH EXPECT HIGHER GUSTS IN WHITE
PINE COUNTY FOR FRIDAY AFTERNOON AT ABOUT 35 MPH. SHOWERS WILL
WIND DOWN DURING THE OVERNIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE 40S TO NEAR 50S
DEGREES.
SATURDAY THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY, LOOK FOR UPPER LEVEL RIDGING FROM
THE SOUTHERN UNITED STATES/NORTHERN MEXICO TO GRADUALLY BUILD TO
THE WEST, SETTING UP SHOP OVER THE FOUR CORNERS BY EARLY NEXT
WEEK. THIS WILL MEAN GRADUALLY WARMING TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE
WEEKEND, REACHING THE LOW 90S ON SUNDAY AND POSSIBLY THE MID TO
UPPER 90S BY MID-WEEK. OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE
40S AND 50S, RISING TO THE 50S AND 60S BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS: CONFIDENCE REMAINS HIGH
WITH RESPECT TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
THESE STORMS WILL TEND TO BE DRY DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON,
TRANSITIONING TO A MIX OF WET AND DRY BY THE EARLY EVENING.
CONFIDENCE INCREASES TO HIGH FOR RED FLAG CONDITIONS (STRONG
WIND, LOW RH) ACROSS PORTIONS OF EAST-CENTRAL NEVADA WITH
ELEVATED CONDITIONS ELSEWHERE.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT ALL SITES,
HOWEVER THUNDERSTORM DOWNDRAFTS MAY BRING BRIEFLY REDUCED
VISIBILITY AT TIMES DUE TO BLOWING DUST. VCTS EXPECTED AT ALL
SITES THIS AFTERNOON, ALONG WITH SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS GUSTING
20-25 KT. CONVECTIVE WIND GUSTS TO 45KT ARE POSSIBLE THIS
AFTERNOON WITH ANY STORM.
AMD NOT SKED FOR KELY DUE TO VISIBILITY SENSOR.
FIRE WEATHER
ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS CONTINUE ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA DUE TO CONTINUED THUNDERSTORMS, BREEZY DAYTIME
WINDS, AND LOW RH VALUES. ADDITIONALLY, NEAR TO CRITICAL
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TOMORROW, WITH A RED FLAG WARNING IN
EFFECT FROM 11 AM TO 8 PM PDT FOR ZONE NV425. ZONES NV426 AND
NV427 ALSO LOOK TO BE NEAR CRITICAL BUT ARE NOT EXPECTED TO REACH
RED FLAG CRITERIA AT THIS TIME.
LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM TO 8 PM PDT FRIDAY NVZ425.
DISCUSSION...86
AVIATION...94
FIRE WEATHER...94
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