064
FXUS65 KLKN 032123
AFDLKN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
223 PM PDT THU JUL 3 2025
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 132 PM PDT THU JUL 3 2025
* ISOLATED WET AND DRY THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AND
FRIDAY AFTERNOON WITH LIGHTING AND GUSTY WINDS.
* HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S THROUGH SATURDAY
BEFORE GRADUALLY CLIMBING BACK WELL INTO THE 90S WITH MODERATE
HEATRISK INTO NEXT WEEK.
* CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
OVER PORTIONS OF EAST-CENTRAL NEVADA DUE TO STRONG WINDS AND
LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY. OTHER AREAS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED.
DISCUSSION
(THIS EVENING THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 132 PM PDT THU JUL 3 2025
WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW:
A WEAK STATIONARY FRONT ACROSS SOUTHERN OREGON AND IDAHO WILL BE
THE FOCUS FOR CONTINUED ISOLATED WET AND DRY THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH
THIS EVENING. HI-RES GUIDANCE BRINGS A SLIGHT INCREASE IN COVERAGE
WITH MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT AS A MORE
PRONOUNCED SHORTWAVE PERTURBATION MOVES OVERHEAD. THUS, EXPECTING
MORE ACTIVITY THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT THAN LAST NIGHT. ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EARLY INDEPENDENCE DAY LOOK TO MOVE OUT
OF THE AREA INTO THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING, WITH A 25% CHANCE
CONTINUING THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON ACROSS EASTERN ELKO AND
WHITE PINE COUNTIES. A BREEZY AFTERNOON AS WELL ACROSS MOST OF THE
FORECAST AREA WITH WEST-SOUTHWEST WINDS INTO THE AFTERNOON GUSTING
FROM 25 TO 30 MPH, WHICH WILL CREATE CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACROSS WHITE PINE COUNTY. SEE FIRE WEATHER SECTION FOR
MORE INFORMATION.
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH STALLS JUST OFF THE NORTHERN CALIFORNIA
COAST INTO THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK WITH THE 4 CORNERS HIGH
INTENSIFYING AND SHIFTING SLIGHTLY WESTWARD INTO THE SECOND HALF
OF NEXT WEEK FOR INCREASING HIGH TEMPERATURES INTO THE MID TO
UPPER 90S AND EXPANDING MODERATE HEATRISK ACROSS MOST OF THE
VALLEYS OF NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NEVADA BY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY,
WHICH MAY NECESSITATE ADDITIONAL HEAT HEADLINES.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS:
MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH TONIGHT, THOUGH LOW
CONFIDENCE ON PLACEMENT AND TIMING THIS EVENING. LONG RANGE
ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON SLOW BUILDING OF THE
FOUR CORNERS HIGH INTO NEXT WEEK. MODERATE CONFIDENCE ON A DRIER
PATTERN INTO NEXT WEEK WITH PLACEMENT OF THE HIGH SHUNTING
MONSOONAL MOISTURE.
AVIATION
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT ALL TERMINALS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOUR
PERIOD HOWEVER THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON MAY BRING VISIBILITY
DOWN WHEN PASSING OVER THE TERMINALS. VCTS EXPECTED AT ALL
TERMINALS, DISSIPATING TO CALMER SKIES IN THE EVENING WITH CIG
LEVELS STAYING LOW AROUND FL080 TO FL120. BREEZY SOUTHWESTERLY
WINDS AT 10-15 KTS, GUSTS UP TO 20-25 KTS AT ALL TERMINALS.
CONVECTIVE WIND GUSTS UP TO 45 KTS ARE POSSIBLE FROM PASSING
STORMS.
FIRE WEATHER
ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS CONTINUE ACROSS
ALL ZONES DUE TO THUNDERSTORMS, ELEVATED WINDS, AND LOW RH
VALUES. ELEVATED TO NEAR CRITICAL CONDITIONS TOMORROW WITH A RED
FLAG WARNING ISSUED AT NV425. NV426 AND NV427 ALSO LOOK TO BE NEAR
CRITICAL, BUT ARE NOT EXPECTED TO REACH RED FLAG CRITERIA.
LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM TO 8 PM PDT FRIDAY FOR NVZ425.
DISCUSSION...84
AVIATION...97
FIRE WEATHER...97
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page