874
FXUS65 KLKN 040855
AFDLKN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
155 AM PDT FRI JUL 4 2025
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 133 AM PDT FRI JUL 4 2025
* ISOLATED WET AND DRY THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON WITH
LIGHTING AND GUSTY WINDS.
* HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S THROUGH SATURDAY
BEFORE GRADUALLY CLIMBING BACK WELL INTO THE 90S WITH MODERATE
HEATRISK INTO NEXT WEEK.
* CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
OVER PORTIONS OF EAST-CENTRAL NEVADA DUE TO STRONG WINDS AND LOW
RELATIVE HUMIDITY. OTHER AREAS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED.
DISCUSSION
(TONIGHT THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 133 AM PDT FRI JUL 4 2025
WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW: ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE ACROSS NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NEVADA
DURING THIS EARLY MORNING. A FEW CELLS WERE STRONG EARLIER. EXPECT
THE ACTIVITY TO CONTINUE INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. THERE IS A
WEAK UPPER TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE WESTERN UNITED STATES THIS
MORNING. THIS FEATURE WILL CONTINUE NORTH OF THE AREA AS IT TREKS
EAST. FOR TODAY, SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE OVER THE FORECAST
AREA. WINDS WILL BE 10 TO 15 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 25 MPH, THOUGH IN
CENTRAL NEVADA WINDS WILL BE A BIT STRONGER. IN PORTIONS OF WHITE
PINE AND NORTHEAST NYE COUNTIES. IN THESE AREAS, WIND GUSTS TO 35
MPH ARE LIKELY. AS A RESULT, PREVIOUSLY ISSUED RED FLAG WARNING
LOOKS GOOD AS WINDS WILL COMBINE WITH LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES
AROUND TEN PERCENT. HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE IN THE 70S AND
80S. ISOLATED SHOWERS (AROUND FIFTEEN PERCENT) ARE POSSIBLE IN
NORTHERN AND NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS
EVENING WITH GRADUALLY CLEARING CONDITIONS BY MIDNIGHT. OVERNIGHT
LOWS WILL BE IN THE 40S AND 50S.
BY SATURDAY, MODELS ARE SHOWING THE TROUGH AXIS EAST OF NORTHERN
AND CENTRAL NEVADA. THE FLOW REMAINS MOSTLY SOUTHWESTERLY WITH A
RATHER STABLE AIR MASS OVERHEAD. NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED WITH
HIGHS IN THE 80S AND 90S. WINDS WILL BE FAIRLY LIGHT, WITH BREEZES
TO 20 MPH IN CENTRAL NEVADA. THE WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
QUIET SATURDAY NIGHT WITH MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS AND LOWS IN THE
40S AND 50S.
ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY, UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL BEGIN BUILDING OVER
THE SOUTHERN UNITED STATES AND NORTHERN MEXICO, WHILE AN UPPER LOW
IS FORECAST TO CLOSE OFF WEST OF CALIFORNIA. THE WEATHER WILL
REMAIN ON THE DRY SIDE DURING THIS TIME WITH HEIGHTS RISING. THIS
WILL BRING INCREASINGLY WARMER TEMPERATURES TO THE FORECAST AREA.
HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 80S AND 90S ON SUNDAY WITH READINGS IN THE
LOW TO MID 90S. WILL NEED TO KEEP A WATCH FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH
RESPECT TO THE ISSUANCE OF ANY HEAT RELATED HEADLINES. IN
ADDITION, WINDS WILL BE BREEZY MONDAY AFTERNOON IN CENTRAL NEVADA
AND MAY LEAD TO ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS.
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY, THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS WILL CONTINUE TO
MOVE WEST WITH THE UPPER LOW REMAINING WEST OF NEVADA. THIS WILL
BRING WARMER CONDITIONS TO THE AREA WITH HEAT RELATED HEADLINES
POSSIBLE AS READINGS WILL BE IN THE MID 90S TO LOW 100S. LOWS WILL
BE IN THE 50S AND 60S.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS: MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH TODAY, THOUGH LOW CONFIDENCE ON PLACEMENT
AND TIMING. LONG RANGE ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON
SLOW BUILDING OF THE FOUR CORNERS HIGH INTO NEXT WEEK. MODERATE
CONFIDENCE ON A DRIER PATTERN INTO NEXT WEEK WITH PLACEMENT OF THE
HIGH SHUNTING SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE EAST.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
LOOK FOR VFR CONDITIONS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOUR PERIOD. VCTS
EXPECTED OVER THE EASTERN TERMINALS OF KEKO-KENV-KELY THROUGH THE
EARLY TO LATE AFTERNOON PERIOD. CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW WINDS OF 40
KNOTS ARE POSSIBLE WITH ANY STORM. WINDS WILL BE BREEZY
SW10-15G20-25KT WITH STRONGER GUSTS TO 30KT AT KELY. THE THREAT
FOR ANY STORMS WILL END AFTER 03Z THIS EVENING.
FIRE WEATHER
A MIX OF WET AND DRY THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TODAY MAINLY IN
THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN ZONES. CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
REMAIN IN FIRE WEATHER ZONE 425 AS LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES
AND STRONG WINDS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON. ELEVATED CONDITIONS
EXPECTED OVER THE REST OF THE FIRE ZONES WITH LOW RH WITH WIND
GUSTS TO 25 MPH THIS AFTERNOON.
LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM TO 8 PM PDT FRIDAY FOR NVZ425.
DISCUSSION...86
AVIATION...92
FIRE WEATHER...92
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page