833
FXUS65 KLKN 042028
AFDLKN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
128 PM PDT FRI JUL 4 2025
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 124 PM PDT FRI JUL 4 2025
* RED FLAG WARNING THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR WHITE PINE AND NE NYE
COUNTIES.
* ISOLATED WET AND DRY THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON WITH
LIGHTING AND GUSTY WINDS.
* WARMING TREND STARTS SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS.
* HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR THE START OF NEXT WEEK WILL BE IN THE 90S
TO 100S WHILE OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL DIP INTO THE 50S AND 60S.
* UPPER TROUGH PASSING THROUGH THE PACIFIC NW TO BRING IN SLIGHTLY
COOLER TEMPERATURES FOR NORTHERN NV WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY, BUT
HEAT RETURNS FRIDAY.
DISCUSSION
(THIS EVENING THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY) ISSUED AT 124 PM PDT FRI JUL
4 2025
TODAY LOOKS TO BE THE LAST DAY FOR AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DEPARTS FOR THE NORTHERN
PLAINS. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD IN OVER THE SOUTHWEST AS THE
LOW DEPARTS BRINGING A RETURN OF DRY CONDITIONS WITH WARMING
TEMPERATURES, BEGINNING SATURDAY AND LASTING THROUGH TUESDAY.
ALTHOUGH CONVECTIVE BUILD UPS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND,
SHOWERS ARE NOT EXPECTED AS MID AND UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE
DECREASING EACH DAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO WARM SATURDAY AS
HIGHS WARM INTO THE MID 80S TO MID 90S, WITH HIGH REACHING THE LOW
90S TO LOW 100S TUESDAY AFTERNOON. LOWS WILL RANGE IN THE LOW 50S
TO LOW 60S FOR MOST THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE WORK WEEK.
MODELS SHOW A NORTHERN STREAM UPPER TROUGH TRY TO DIG SOUTH ALONG
THE CALIFORNIA COAST TUESDAY AFTERNOON, THIS TROUGH WON’T MAKE IT
AS FAR SOUTH AS LAST WEEK THOUGH AS THE UPPER RIDGE BUILDS SW
ACROSS SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA FORCING THE UPPER TROUGH TO LIFT INTO
THE SNAKE RIVER VALLEY AND INTO MONTANA WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
THIS WILL BRING A COOL FRONT THROUGH NORTHERN NEVADA, BUT WITH NO
MOISTURE TO WORK WITH, THIS FRONT WILL ONLY COOL TEMPERATURES BACK
INTO THE MID 80S TO MID 90S FOR THOSE TWO DAYS. AS THAT UPPER
TROUGH DEPARTS THE UPPER RIDGE AND THUS THE HEAT RETURN FOR
FRIDAY.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS:
THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE POSSIBILITY FOR THE DEVELOPMENT
OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED COVERAGE OF A 10% TO 30% CHANCE OF A MIX
OF WET AND DRY THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON, HOWEVER WITH DRIER
AIR FILTERING IN BEHIND THE DEPARTING UPPER TROUGH, STORM CHANCES
DROP THIS EVENING.
THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS OVER
EAST-CENTRAL NEVADA WITH A MODERATE CONFIDENCE OF NEAR CRITICAL
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS OVER PORTIONS OF HUMBOLDT, AND WESTERN
ELKO COUNTIES THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDING BACK IN
OVER THE THE GREAT BASIN FOR THE WEEKEND AND INTO THE FIRST HALF
OF NEXT WEEK LEADING TO WARMER TEMPERATURES AND DRIER CONDITIONS.
THE MAIN DEVIATION FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST WAS TO INCREASE
POPS OVER NORTHERN AND EAST-CENTRAL NEVADA TO BETTER CAPTURE THE
CURRENT THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT TRENDS THIS MORNING.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
VFR CONDITIONS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOUR PERIOD. VCTS EXPECTED OVER
THE EASTERN TERMINALS KEKO, KELY, AND KENV, DISSIPATING OVERNIGHT.
STRONG WINDS FROM CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW UP TO 40 KTS ARE POSSIBLE.
BREEZY WINDS UP TO 10-15 KTS, GUSTS 20-25 KTS WITH STRONGER WINDS
UP TO 30 KTS AT KELY.
FIRE WEATHER
MIX OF WET AND DRY THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON MAINLY OVER
NORTHERN AND EASTERN ZONES, DISSIPATING DURING THE EVENING HOURS.
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER REMAINS OVER ZONE 425 DUE TO LOW RH AND
STRONG WINDS. ELEVATED CONDITIONS EXPECTED EVERYWHERE ELSE WITH
LOW RH AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH. LOOK FOR DRY WEATHER TO RETURN
OVER THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK WITH RISING TEMPERATURES.
LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM PDT THIS EVENING NVZ425.
DISCUSSION...98
AVIATION...97
FIRE WEATHER...97
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