676
FXUS65 KLKN 050918
AFDLKN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
218 AM PDT SAT JUL 5 2025
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 155 AM PDT SAT JUL 5 2025
* WARMING TREND STARTS TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS.
* HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR THE START OF NEXT WEEK WILL BE IN THE 90S
TO 100S WHILE OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL DIP INTO THE 50S AND 60S.
* UPPER TROUGH PASSING THROUGH THE PACIFIC NW TO BRING IN SLIGHTLY
COOLER TEMPERATURES FOR NORTHERN NV WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY, BUT
HEAT RETURNS FRIDAY.
DISCUSSION
(TODAY THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 155 AM PDT SAT JUL 5 2025
WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW: CURRENT SYNOPTIC SITUATION DEPICTS UPPER
LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE SOUTHERN UNITED STATES/NORTHERN MEXICO WITH
A WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WEST OF CALIFORNIA. FOR TODAY THROUGH
TUESDAY, THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE WEST, SETTING
UP A POSITION ACROSS SOUTHERN ARIZONA. MEANWHILE, THE UPPER TROUGH
WILL CLOSE OFF AND MAINTAIN A POSITION OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST.
THE WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN MOSTLY DRY THOUGH THIS TIME WITH
HIGHS IN THE 80S TO LOW 90S TODAY BUT CLIMBING INTO THE UPPER 80S
TO MID TO UPPER 90S ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY. BY EARLY NEXT WEEK,
HIGHS WILL BE ABOUT THREE TO SEVEN DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. WINDS
WILL BE BREEZY EACH AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS TO ABOUT 20 MPH. HOWEVER,
BY MONDAY AND TUESDAY, WINDS IN THE CENTRAL PARTS OF THE FORECAST
AREA WILL BE A LITTLE STRONGER, WITH SPEEDS OF 30 TO 35 MPH. WILL
EXPLAIN IN FURTHER DETAILS REGARDING FIRE WEATHER BELOW IN THAT
SECTION. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE 40S AND 50S THROUGH MONDAY
NIGHT.
THE UPPER RIDGE IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TO MOVE TO THE WEST AND
WILL SET UP SHOP OVER CENTRAL ARIZONA, WHILE THE UPPER TROUGH
OPENS AND MOVES NORTHEAST. THE RESULTING FLOW WILL REMAIN OUT OF
THE SOUTHWEST WHICH WILL KEEP A DRIER PATTERN OVER NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL NEVADA THROUGH SATURDAY. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID
90S WEDNESDAY BUT WILL CLIMB BACK INTO THE MID TO UPPER 90S
SATURDAY. LOWS WILL BE IN THE 40S AND 50S.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS: THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDING BACK IN OVER THE THE GREAT BASIN FOR
THE WEEKEND AND INTO THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK LEADING TO WARMER
TEMPERATURES AND DRIER CONDITIONS.
THERE IS MODERATE CONFIDENCE OF CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
OVER CENTRAL NEVADA NEXT MONDAY AND TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
VFR CONDITIONS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOUR PERIOD. WINDS WILL BE BREEZY
WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 20KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
FIRE WEATHER
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN BUILDING OVER NORTHERN
AND CENTRAL NEVADA THROUGH THE PERIOD. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN BELOW CRITICAL THRESHOLDS THROUGH THE WEEKEND, BUT BY
MONDAY AND TUESDAY, A PASSING UPPER TROUGH MAY BRING WIND GUSTS
GREATER THAN 30 MPH, ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE CENTRAL NEVADA ZONES OF
425-427. THIS MAY WARRANT FIRE WEATHER HEADLINES IN THESE AREAS
DURING THIS TIME FRAME AND WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED. OTHERWISE,
MINOR COOLING IS EXPECTED WITH THIS PASSAGE WITH HIGH PRESSURE
STRENGTHENING FOR THE LATTER PORTIONS OF THE WEEK WITH
TEMPERATURES RISING TO ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS.
LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...86
AVIATION...86
FIRE WEATHER...86
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