625
FXUS65 KLKN 052109
AFDLKN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
209 PM PDT SAT JUL 5 2025
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 205 PM PDT SAT JUL 5 2025
* WARMING TREND STARTS TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS.
* HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RISE INTO THE LOW 90S TO LOW 100S BY TUESDAY
AS LOWS REACH THE LOWER 50S TO LOW 60S.
* NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS POSSIBLE FOR TUESDAY
AFTERNOON FOR CENTRAL NV AS SW WINDS PICK UP AND HUMIDITY DROPS.
* UPPER TROUGH PASSING THROUGH THE PACIFIC NW TO BRING IN SLIGHTLY
COOLER TEMPERATURES FOR NORTHERN NV THURSDAY. HEAT RETURNS
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS HIGHS REACH THE UPPER 90S TO 100S.
DISCUSSION
(THIS EVENING THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 205 PM PDT SAT JUL 5 2025
THE MAIN WEATHER FEATURES TO WATCH FOR THE NEXT WEEK WILL BE AN
UPPER TROUGH SITUATED OFF THE WEST COAST AND A STRONG UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE DESERT SW. UNLIKE LAST WEEK THIS
UPPER LOW IS NOT FORECAST TO MOVE ANY FARTHER SOUTH THAN THE BAY
AREA OF NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. THE RIDGE HOWEVER WILL BUILD SW INTO
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA EFFECTIVELY BLOCKING ANY MOISTURE FLOW FROM
THE SOUTH. THAT WILL LEAVE NEVADA UNDER A DRY SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
WITH SURFACE WINDS BEING DICTATED BY HOW CLOSE THE TROUGH AND
RIDGE GET. NEEDLESS TO SAT A WARMING TREND WILL COMMENCE THIS
AFTERNOON WITH THE FIRST ROUND WARN-UP PEAKING TUESDAY OR
WEDNESDAY OF NEXT WEEK. HIGH TEMPERATURES LOOK TO RISE INTO THE
LOW 90S TO LOW 100S BY TUESDAY AS NIGHT TIME LOW RANGE IN THE LOW
50S TO LOW 60S, WHICH WITH THE EXCEPTION OF WEST WENDOVER WHICH
WILL SEE LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S, WILL HELP MIDI-GATE
POTENTIAL HEAT HEADLINES FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK. AS FOR
THE UPPER LOW MODELS SHOW THAT IT WILL MAKE LITTLE HEADWAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY OF NEXT WEEK, WHAT IT WILL DO IS INCREASE THE SW WINDS
ACROSS CENTRAL NEVADA FOR MONDAY, TUESDAY, AND WEDNESDAY. AS SUCH
WILL NEED TO WATCH FOR FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS AS AFTERNOON WINDS OF
10 TO 20MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE, AND WITH
AFTERNOON RH VALUES BELOW 10% NEAR CRITICAL TO CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY FOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
GOOD NEWS IS THIS UPPER TROUGH WILL FINALLY MOVE THROUGH NORTHERN
NEVADA THURSDAY, BRINGING SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS, BUT NO MOISTURE
TO SPEAK OF. AFTER THURSDAY MODELS AGREE ON RE-BUILDING THE RIDGE
OVER THE LOWER COLORADO RIVER VALLEY. THIS SETUP WILL BRING
SLIGHTLY HIGHER HEIGHTS OVER NEVADA, MEANING EVEN WARMER
TEMPERATURES WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE AREA WITH HIGH REACHING THE
UPPER 90S TO 100S FRIDAY AND SATURDAY OF NEXT WEEK, AND A RETURN
TO POSSIBLE HEAT HEADLINES FOR NEXT WEEKEND.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS:
THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDING IN OVER
THE THE GREAT BASIN FOR THE WEEKEND TROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT
WEEK LEADING TO WARMER TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS.
THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE UPPER LEVEL FORECAST PATTERN THAT
WILL KEEP AN UPPER TROUGH OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. THERE IS MODERATE CONFIDENCE THAT THE INTERACTION OF
THIS TROUGH AND THE UPPER RIDGE WILL LEAD TO NEAR CRITICAL TO
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS FOR PARTS OF CENTRAL NEVADA FOR
THE FIRST HALF OF THE WORK WEEK.
CONFIDENCE IS MODERATE TO HIGH THAT THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL
BUILD BACK IN OVER THE GREAT BASIN REGION, AFTER THE UPPER TROUGH
MOVES THROUGH NEVADA THURSDAY. LEADING TO ANOTHER WARM-UP FOR NEXT
WEEKEND.
THE MAIN DEVIATION FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST WAS TO INCREASE
WINDS AND WIND GUSTS FOR MONDAY, TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY TO MATCH
MODEL TRENDS.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT ALL SITES THROUGH THE NEXT
24 HOURS. SOME BREEZY WINDS WILL BE PRESENT, GUSTING UP TO 20KT AT
TIMES.
FIRE WEATHER
WARM AND DRY THROUGH THE FORECAST AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER
THE AREA. FIRE CONDITIONS ARE CURRENTLY EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW
CRITICAL THRESHOLDS, HOWEVER WINDS LOOK BORDERLINE IN CENTRAL
NEVADA AND MAY END UP REQUIRING FIRE WEATHER HEADLINES.
LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...98
AVIATION...94
FIRE WEATHER...94
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