058
FXUS65 KLKN 141932
AFDLKN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
146 AM PDT THU AUG 14 2025
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 143 AM PDT THU AUG 14 2025
* ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS CONTINUE DUE TO WARM
TEMPERATURES, LIGHT TO BREEZY WINDS, AND LOW AFTERNOON SURFACE
HUMIDITY LEVELS.
* SCATTERED DRY THUNDERSTORMS IN EASTERN ELKO COUNTY THURSDAY
AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY EVENING
* ACTIVE PATTERN FOR NORTHERN NEVADA CONTINUES THROUGH SUNDAY
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 1232 PM PDT THU AUG 14 2025
NO UPDATES ARE PLANNED.
DISCUSSION
(TODAY THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY)
WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW: UPPER TROUGH LOCATED OVER THE NORTHERN
SIERRA NEVADA RANGE WILL BRING A 20% TO 50% CHANCE FOR A ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED MIX OF WET AND DRY THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY AFTERNOON
ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND NORTHERN NV. MODELS SHOW THAT THIS
TROUGH WILL THEN LIKELY SIT OVER THE CALIFORNIA/NEVADA BORDER FOR
A FEW DAYS. THE MAIN REASON FOR THIS IS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
OVER THE CENTRAL US WILL SERVE AS A BLOCK KEEPING THE LONG WAVE
PATTERN STALLED THROUGH SUNDAY. SO AS AS INDIVIDUAL SHORTWAVES
ROTATE THROUGH THE FLOW THIS WILL KEEP A 10% TO 30% DAY TO DAY
ISOLATED STORM CHANCES OVER MAINLY THE EASTERN HALF OF NEVADA
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. HOWEVER STORM MODES AFTER THURSDAY FAVOR A
HIGHER PROBABILITY OF DRY THUNDERSTORMS AS MID LEVEL MOISTURE
SLOWLY MIXES OUT. AFTER SUNDAY STORM CHANCES DROP TO NEAR ZERO AS
THE UPPER RIDGE SLOWLY RETROGRADES BACK TOWARD NEVADA AND
GENERATES HEIGHT RISES, EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO BEGIN TO WARM AGAIN
THROUGH WEDNESDAY OF NEXT WEEK. THE GOOD NEWS IS WITH THE RIDGE
FORECAST TO BE JUST WEST OF THE FOUR CORNERS REGION IT MAY FINALLY
ALLOW FOR SOME ACTUAL MONSOONAL MOISTURE TO FILTER IN TO THE
SILVER STATE FROM THE SOUTH. HOWEVER MODELS HAVE BEEN HINTING AT
MONSOONAL DEVELOPMENT FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD, WHICH HAS NOT
MATERIALIZED, SO AT THIS TIME CONFIDENCE IS LOW. THE MONSOON IN
GENERAL HAS PRETTY MUCH BEEN MISSING THIS SEASON, FOR AZ, CA, AND
NV AS THE UPPER PATTERN HAS KEPT MOISTURE ACROSS NEW MEXICO FOR
MOST OF THIS SUMMER. SO GIVEN THE CAVEATS, HAVE INTRODUCED A LOW
10% TO 30% CHANCE FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NE NYE AND
SOUTHERN WHITE PINE COUNTIES FOR THURSDAY AFTERNOON. ITS TO EARLY
TO TELL WHAT THE PRIMARY STORM MODE WILL BE, BUT INITIALLY STORMS
MAY START ON THE DRY SIDE, BUT MAY CHANGE TO A MIX OF WET AND DRY
AS MOISTURE IMPROVES. TEMPERATURES LOOK TO SLOWLY COOL THROUGH THE
WEEKEND THANKS TO THE UPPER RIDGE SHIFTING EAST AND STORM
CHANCES. HIGHS LOOK TO RANGE FROM THE MID 80S TO MID 90S ACROSS
NEVADA THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON. MONDAY THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM AGAIN AS HIGHS RETURN TO THE UPPER 80S TO
UPPER 90S. FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS LOOK FOR TEMPERATURES EACH NIGHT
FALLING INTO THE MID 50S TO UPPER 60S AS SKIES CLEAR.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS:
THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF A LOW 20% TO 40%
CHANCE OF AN ISOLATED TO SCATTERED MIX OF DRY AND WET
THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY AFTERNOON FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND
NORTHERN NV.
THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE OF ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS,
WITH WARM TEMPERATURES AND LOW AFTERNOON SURFACE HUMIDITY LEVELS,
ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHERN NEVADA FOR THE FORECAST PERIOD.
THERE IS MODERATE CONFIDENCE FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A LOW 10% TO
30% CHANCES FOR ISOLATED, MOSTLY DRY THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS EASTERN
NV FRIDAY, SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AFTERNOONS.
THERE IS A LOW CONFIDENCE AT THIS TIME FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
10% TO 30% CHANCE FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF N NYE
AND SOUTHERN WHITE PINE COUNTIES FOR NEXT THURSDAY.
AVIATION
VFR CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED AT ALL TERMINALS
THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING. WESTERLY AFTERNOON WIND GUSTS THURSDAY
FOR NORTHERN TERMINALS KWMC, KBAM, KEKO OF 18-20KTS THROUGH
THURSDAY EVENING CONTRAST WITH A MORE SOUTHERLY FLOW AT KTPH,
KELY, AND KENV WHERE WINDS WILL GUST 20-22KTS. THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY IS IN ANTICIPATED ACROSS EAST-CENTRAL NV THURSDAY
AFTERNOON POTENTIALLY IMPACTING KEKO, KELY, AND KENV TERMINALS
THROUGH EARLY EVENING. WINDS IN AND AROUND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
WILL BE GUSTY AND ERRATIC. THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY AND GUSTY WINDS
WILL SUBSIDE AFTER SUNSET THURSDAY EVENING.
FIRE WEATHER
A RED FLAG WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR FIRE ZONE
470 ON THURSDAY FROM NOON UNTIL 8PM PDT FOR DRY THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY. A MONSOONAL PUSH FROM THE SOUTH WILL LEND ENOUGH
MOISTURE AVAILABILITY TO EASTERN AND CENTRAL NV ON THURSDAY TO
INITIATE INITIALLY DRY THUNDERSTORMS THAT WILL TRANSITION TO A MIX
OF WET AND DRY BY EARLY EVENING ON THURSDAY AS MOISTURE BECOMES
MORE PLENTIFUL OVER THE AREA. THE MIX OF WET AND DRY THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY WILL IMPACT FIRE ZONES 425, 427, 438, 469, 470, AND
EASTERN PORTIONS OF 424 THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING UNTIL
SUNSET. WELL CURED FUELS THANKS TO PROLONGED DRY CONDITIONS
ACROSS THE REGION WILL BE QUICK TO IGNITE FROM ANY LIGHTNING
STRIKES THAT OCCUR AND WILL SPREAD QUICKLY IN RESPONSE TO OUTFLOWS
FROM SAID THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. DRY THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL
RAMP BACK UP OVER A SIMILAR REGION ON FRIDAY AFFECTING ZONES 425,
427, 469, AND 470 UNDER CONTINUED SOUTHERLY MONSOONAL FLOW. 426
AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF 425 WILL ALSO EXPERIENCE FIRE WEATHER
CRITERIA WINDS (23-28 MPH) AND LOW RH (7-11%) FRIDAY AFTERNOON
WITH SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW INCREASING ACROSS THOSE LOCATIONS.
LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 8 PM PDT THIS EVENING NVZ470.
DISCUSSION...98
AVIATION...99
FIRE WEATHER...99
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