330
FXUS65 KLKN 152102
AFDLKN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
202 PM PDT FRI AUG 15 2025
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 201 PM PDT FRI AUG 15 2025
* ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST DUE TO WARM
TEMPERATURES, BREEZY AFTERNOON WINDS, AND LOW HUMIDITY.
* ISOLATED DRY THUNDERSTORMS IN PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN
NEVADA FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
* ISOLATED DRY THUNDERSTORMS EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING FOR
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY IN NORTHERN NEVADA.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 201 PM PDT FRI AUG 15 2025
NO CHANGES HAVE BEEN MADE TO THE FORECAST THIS AFTERNOON.
DISCUSSION
(TODAY THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY)
WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW:
CURRENT SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA. A SLIGHT COOLING TREND IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST
THROUGH SUNDAY AS A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE IS SITUATED OVER THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST WHILE HIGH PRESSURE STRENGTHENS OVER THE
SOUTHERN U.S. HIGHS WILL REACH INTO THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S
WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S. WINDS WILL BE
BREEZY OUT OF THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH.
MEANWHILE, WEAK TO MODERATE INSTABILITY WITH CAPE VALUES OF
100-200 J/KG AND SUFFICIENT MOISTURE WILL SUPPORT A 10-30% CHANCE
OF ISOLATED DRY THUNDERSTORMS PRIMARILY IN ELKO COUNTY AND
PORTIONS CENTRAL NEVADA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. CLOUD BASES
ARE EXPECTED TO BE AT OR ABOVE 10K FT AGL.
THE NEXT CHANCE OF DRY THUNDERSTORMS (10-20%) WILL BE PRIMARILY
FOCUSED IN NORTHERN ELKO AND HUMBOLDT COUNTIES EACH AFTERNOON AND
EVENING FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. THE MAIN HAZARDS ASSOCIATED WITH
ANY THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT INCLUDE GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS NEAR 40
MPH AND FREQUENT CLOUD-TO-GROUND LIGHTNING.
WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN MONDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE GRADUALLY RETROGRADES OVER THE WESTERN
U.S. BY THURSDAY, SOME MONSOONAL MOISTURE MAY BEGIN TO CREEP
UNDERNEATH THE RIDGE, BRINGING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS:
THERE IS MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF ISOLATED DRY
THUNDERSTORMS EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.
THE NBM APPEARS TO BE STRUGGLING WITH THE AERIAL EXTENT AND
COVERAGE, SO WEATHER GRIDS HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED BASED ON RECENT
MODEL TRENDS AND HIGH RESOLUTION GUIDANCE.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW REGARDING THE TIMING, EXTENT OF
MOISTURE, AND INSTABILITY FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS LATE NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION
VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST FOR AT ALL TERMINALS TODAY. WESTERLY
AFTERNOON WINDS FOR NORTHERN TERMINALS KWMC, KBAM, KEKO OF 5KT TO
15KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 25KT POSSIBLE CONTRAST WITH A MORE
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS AT KTPH, KELY, AND KENV AT 10KT TO 20KT WITH A
FEW GUSTS UP TO 30KT POSSIBLE. THERE WILL BE A 10% TO 30% CHANCE
FOR ISOLATED, MOSTLY DRY THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY AFTERNOON FOR
EASTERN NEVADA WHICH MAY IMPACT KELY AND KENV AND PERHAPS KEKO.
KWMC, KTPH, AND KBAM WILL REMAIN DRY.
FIRE WEATHER
THE SOUTHWESTERLY MONSOONAL PUSH GETS SHIFTED EASTWARD SLIGHTLY
ON FRIDAY AS A TROUGH REPOSITIONS OVER CA DECREASING THE COVERAGE
OF DRY THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MODEL
GUIDANCE HAS DRY THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY INITIATING OVER FIRE ZONES
427/469/470 EARLY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. WHAT DOES FORM WILL PROPAGATE
TO THE NORTHEAST AND IMPACT MAINLY ZONES 469/470 LATER IN THE
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. SUSTAINED SOUTHERLY FLOW OF 15-17 MPH
WITH GUSTS NEAR 25 MPH OVER ZONES 425/426 WILL COMBINE WITH
AFTERNOON RH VALUES OF 10-13% TO CREATE FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS IN
THOSE LOCATIONS. THESE CONDITIONS COULD AGGRAVATE THE NEWLY
IGNITED CHIN CREEK FIRE IN THE NORTHEASTERN CORNER OF ZONE 425
CAUSING SPREAD TO THE NORTH- NORTHEAST DURING AFTERNOON HOURS. ON
SATURDAY, DRY THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SHIFTS EVEN FURTHER EAST
MAINLY OVER UT AND EXTREME EASTERN NV WHILE GUSTY WINDS AND LOW RH
WILL AGAIN IMPACT ZONES 425/426 THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING.
LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...86
AVIATION...98
FIRE WEATHER...84
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