532
FXUS65 KLKN 171952
AFDLKN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
1252 PM PDT SUN AUG 17 2025
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1251 PM PDT SUN AUG 17 2025
* ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST DUE TO WARM
TEMPERATURES, BREEZY AFTERNOON WINDS, AND LOW HUMIDITY.
* ISOLATED DRY THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY ALONG THE NORTHERN NV BORDER
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
* WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN EARLY NEXT
WEEK.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 1251 PM PDT SUN AUG 17 2025
NO UPDATES ARE PLANNED FOR THIS PERIOD.
DISCUSSION
(TODAY THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY)
WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW:
CURRENT SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA, WITH A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE SITUATED ALONG THE
WEST COAST AND HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHERN U.S.
WEAK TO MODERATE INSTABILITY WITH CAPE VALUES OF 100-200 J/KG AND
LINGERING MONSOONAL MOISTURE WILL SUPPORT A 10-30% CHANCE OF
ISOLATED DRY THUNDERSTORMS PRIMARILY FOCUSED ALONG THE NORTHERN
NEVADA BORDER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. CLOUD BASES ARE EXPECTED
TO BE AT OR ABOVE 10K FT AGL. THE MAIN HAZARDS ASSOCIATED WITH
ANY THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT INCLUDE GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS NEAR 40
MPH AND FREQUENT CLOUD-TO-GROUND LIGHTNING.
WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN MONDAY AND
TUESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE GRADUALLY RETROGRADES OVER THE WESTERN
U.S. HIGHS WILL REACH INTO THE UPPER 80S TO UPPER 90S WITH
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S. WINDS WILL BE BREEZY
WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH.
BY WEDNESDAY, SOME MONSOONAL MOISTURE MAY BEGIN TO CREEP
UNDERNEATH THE RIDGE, BRINGING A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS EACH
AFTERNOON AND EVENING THROUGH LATE NEXT WEEK.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS:
THERE IS MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF ISOLATED DRY
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING MAINLY ALONG THE NORTHERN
NV BORDER. THE NBM APPEARS TO BE STRUGGLING WITH THE AERIAL
EXTENT AND COVERAGE, SO WEATHER GRIDS HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED BASED ON
RECENT MODEL TRENDS AND HIGH RESOLUTION GUIDANCE.
WITH RECENT FIRES IN NORTHERN NEVADA, WEATHER GRIDS WERE ALSO
ADJUSTED TO INCORPORATE HIGH RESOLUTION GUIDANCE FOR SMOKE,
PARTICULARLY AROUND THE TUSCARORA AREA.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW REGARDING THE TIMING, EXTENT OF
MOISTURE, AND INSTABILITY FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK. FOR NOW, WEATHER GRIDS
HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED BASED ON LATEST CLUSTER ANALYSIS AND
PROBABILISTIC ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE.
AVIATION
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL TERMINALS OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS. SCATTERED TO BROKEN CLOUDS WITH CIGS RANGING FROM FL100 TO
FL180 WILL BE PRESENT ACROSS NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NV. AFTERNOON
INSTABILITY MAY INITIATE AFTERNOON DRY THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY ALONG
THE NORTHERN NV BORDER. VARIABLE WINDS WITH GUSTS UP TO 35 KTS
ARE POSSIBLE DUE TO DOWNDRAFTS AND STRONG OUTFLOW WINDS FROM
NEARBY STORMS. DUE TO LIMITED COVERAGE AND LOW PROBABILITY,
THUNDERSTORMS WERE NOT INCLUDED FOR THE NORTHERN TERMINAL SITES.
WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE FROM THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST AT 10-15 KTS,
WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 KTS, SUBSIDING THIS EVENING BETWEEN 03Z AND
04Z MONDAY.
FIRE WEATHER
SOUTHERLY FLOW ON SUNDAY WILL INCREASE FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
FOR ZONES 425/426/427 AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF 438/469/470, WITH
SUSTAINED WINDS OF 10-15 MPH, GUSTS AS HIGH AS 25-30 MPH ALONG
WITH LOW RH VALUES AT OR BELOW 15%. UPPER MOISTURE GETS PUSHED
FURTHER NORTH ALONG THE STATE BORDER, GIVING THE NORTHERN PART OF
ZONES 438/469/470 AND FAR NORTHEASTERN PORTION OF 437 CHANCES FOR
ISOLATED DRY THUNDERSTORMS. DRY LIGHTNING WILL STILL BE AN IMPACT
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON TO THE AFFECTED ZONES.
LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...86
AVIATION...90
FIRE WEATHER...97
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