796
FXUS65 KLKN 180829
AFDLKN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
129 AM PDT MON AUG 18 2025
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 105 AM PDT MON AUG 18 2025
* WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO TODAY AND TUESDAY.
* ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST DUE TO WARM
TEMPERATURES, BREEZY AFTERNOON WINDS, AND LOW HUMIDITY.
* ACTIVE WEATHER RETURNS MIDWEEK WITH PERIODS OF AFTERNOON AND
EVENING MONSOONAL THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED ACROSS NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL NEVADA.
DISCUSSION
(TODAY THROUGH NEXT MONDAY)
WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW:
CURRENT SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA, WITH A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE SITUATED ALONG THE
WEST COAST AND HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHERN U.S.
WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TODAY AND TUESDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE GRADUALLY RETROGRADES OVER THE WESTERN U.S. HIGHS WILL
REACH INTO THE UPPER 80S TO UPPER 90S WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE
UPPER 40S TO MID 50S. WINDS WILL BE BREEZY WITH GUSTS UP TO 25
MPH.
BY THURSDAY, MONSOONAL MOISTURE ROTATING AROUND THE HIGH PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL INTERACT WITH WEAK TO MODERATE INSTABILITY ACROSS
MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA. THIS WILL SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
STORMS WILL BE A MIX OF WET AND DRY, WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR GUSTY
OUTFLOW WINDS AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS:
WITH RECENT FIRES IN NORTHERN NEVADA, WEATHER GRIDS WERE ADJUSTED
TO INCORPORATE HIGH RESOLUTION GUIDANCE FOR SMOKE, PARTICULARLY
AROUND THE TUSCARORA AREA.
THE LATEST CLUSTER ANALYSIS AND PROBABILISTIC ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE
ARE GRADUALLY CONVERGING ON THE TIMING, EXTENT OF MOISTURE, AND
INSTABILITY FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS MID TO
LATE NEXT WEEK. THE NBM APPEARS TO BE STRUGGLING WITH THE AERIAL
EXTENT AND COVERAGE, SO WEATHER GRIDS HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED BASED ON
RECENT MODEL TRENDS.
AVIATION
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL TERMINALS OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS. WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE WEST TO SOUTHWEST AT 10-15 KTS
WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 KTS, UNDER PARTLY CLOUDY TO MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES.
FIRE WEATHER
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW CONTINUES TODAY WITH WINDS AT 10-15 MPH, GUSTS
UP TO 20-25 MPH. FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE
ELEVATED AT ANY ZONE, HOWEVER WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
WITH MIN RH VALUES BELOW 15% IN NORTHERN NEVADA EXCEPT FOR ZONE
437 JUST ABOVE 15%, WHILE CENTRAL NEVADA SEES MIN RH IN THE SINGLE
DIGITS.
LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...90
AVIATION...98
FIRE WEATHER...97
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