318
FXUS65 KLKN 192007
AFDLKN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
107 PM PDT TUE AUG 19 2025
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 107 PM PDT TUE AUG 19 2025
* CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS FOR PARTS OF NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL NEVADA TODAY
* A WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED THURSDAY AND FRIDAY
* MODERATE RISK FOR HEAT-RELATED ILLNESSES FRIDAY
* A FEW STRONG THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING
THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 107 PM PDT TUE AUG 19 2025
NO UPDATES ARE PLANNED FOR THIS FORECAST PERIOD.
DISCUSSION
(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW: AN UPPER-LEVEL AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE
WILL REMAIN PARKED OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION OF THE UNITED
STATES TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY. THIS ANTICYCLONE ALOFT WILL SHIFT
SOUTHWARD THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. BREEZY CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NEVADA THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. ISOLATED, DRY THUNDERSTORMS ARE
ANTICIPATED THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY EVENING. A MIX OF WET
AND DRY THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING
FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE SEASONAL VALUES BOTH THIS
AFTERNOON AND WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. A WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON, MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES
WILL BE SIX TO EIGHT DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
THIS TYPE OF HEAT WILL RESULT IN A MODERATE RISK FOR HEAT-RELATED
ILLNESSES. ALTHOUGH HEAT EVENTS LIKE THIS ARE RELATIVELY COMMON
AND HAPPEN MANY TIMES A YEAR, HEAT-RELATED IMPACTS ARE POSSIBLE
FOR THOSE NEW TO THE AREA IF SIMPLE PRECAUTIONS ARE NOT TAKEN. A
HEAT ADVISORY MAY BE REQUIRED FOR FRIDAY. A DOWNWARD TEMPERATURE
TREND IS ANTICIPATED SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY. BY MONDAY AFTERNOON,
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR SEASONAL VALUES.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS:
HIGH FORECAST CONFIDENCE IN CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS FOR
PORTIONS OF NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NEVADA TODAY. HIGH FORECAST
CONFIDENCE REGARDING A WARMING TREND THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. HIGH
FORECAST CONFIDENCE IN A MODERATE RISK FOR HEAT-RELATED ILLNESSES
FRIDAY. MODERATE FORECAST CONFIDENCE REGARDING THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY.
USED WIND GUST OUTPUT FROM THE HIGH-RESOLUTION RAPID REFRESH
COMPUTER MODEL IN THE FIRST 48 HOURS OF THE FORECAST.
AVIATION
VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST FOR AT ALL TERMINALS THROUGH TUESDAY.
WINDS TUESDAY WILL BE OUT OF THE WEST TO SOUTHWEST AT 10KT TO
20KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 30KT POSSIBLE, UNDER PARTLY CLOUDY TO MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES.
FIRE WEATHER
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED IN PORTIONS OF
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NEVADA THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING DUE TO
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WIND GUSTS NEAR 30 MPH AND MINIMUM RELATIVE
HUMIDITY VALUES AS LOW AS 6 PERCENT. ISOLATED, DRY THUNDERSTORMS
ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY EVENING. A MIX OF
WET AND DRY THUNDERSTORMS ARE ANTICIPATED EACH AFTERNOON AND
EVENING FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY.
LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 10 PM PDT THIS EVENING NVZ427-438-469.
DISCUSSION...86
AVIATION...98
FIRE WEATHER...87
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