673
FXUS65 KLKN 071039
AFDLKN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
202 AM PDT SUN SEP 7 2025
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 158 AM PDT SUN SEP 7 2025
* SUNDAY STORM CHANCES LIMITED TO FAR NORTHEASTERN NEVADA WITH A
10% TO 20% CHANCE FOR ISOLATED, MOSTLY DRY THUNDERSTORMS
* DRY CONDITIONS ELSEWHERE SUNDAY, AND MONDAY, AS UPPER FLOW FROM
THE WSW BRINGS IN DRIER AIR.
* TUESDAY EVENING A LARGE UPPER TROUGH WILL PUSH IN FROM THE NW
BRINGING A RETURN OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, AS WELL AS
COOLER TEMPERATURES THROUGH LATE WEEK.
DISCUSSION
(TODAY THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY)
DRIER SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW OVERSPREADING THE SILVER STATE WILL
BRING A QUICK BREAK FROM THE ACTIVE WEATHER FOR THE SILVER STATE.
SUNDAY WILL BE THE FIRST QUIET DAY FOR MANY, HOWEVER THERE WILL BE
A LOW 10% TO 20% CHANCE FOR ISOLATED, MOSTLY DRY THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS FAR NORTHEASTERN NEVADA SUNDAY AFTERNOON. MONDAY, THE DRIER
SW FLOW ALOFT BECOMES FULLY ESTABLISHED ACROSS NEVADA GIVING US A
QUIET DAY WEATHER WISE. AFTER MONDAY, MODELS REMAIN IN DECENT
AGREEMENT WITH THE UPPER PATTERN THROUGH LATE WEEK ALTHOUGH THE
TIMING HAS SLOWED A BIT FROM YESTERDAY. BOTH THE GFS AND THE EC
SHOW A NORTHERN STREAM, LARGE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OR CLOSED LOW
DIGGING SOUTH OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE WEST COAST. THIS
TROUGH/CLOSED LOW WILL INTRODUCE MOIST PACIFIC FLOW OVER THE
REGION AS IT SLOWLY MOVES INTO AND ACROSS NEVADA, STARTING TUESDAY
EVENING, BEFORE DEPARTING EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. THIS SYSTEM
WILL BRING SEVERAL ROUNDS OF SHOWERS, A FEW THUNDERSTORMS AND
COOLER TEMPERATURES NEXT WEEK. MODELS SOLUTIONS AFTER SATURDAY DO
REMAIN IN FAVOR OF A SECOND TROUGH FOLLOWING ON THE HEALS OF THE
PRIOR TROUGH THAT WILL PUSH ACROSS NV SUNDAY BRINGING MORE CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS. ALTHOUGH MODELS ARE NO SHOWING THE
POTENTIAL FOR A MORE NORTHERN TRACK WITH THIS SYSTEM WHICH IF
HOLDS FAVORS MORE IMPACTS FOR NORTHERN NEVADA AT THIS TIME. AS FOR
TEMPERATURES A SLOW COOLING TREND CONTINUES. HIGHS DROP INTO THE
MID 70S TO MID 80S BY MONDAY AFTERNOON,TUESDAY HIGHS WILL COOL
FURTHER, RANGING INTO THE MID 60S TO MID 70S BY FRIDAY. LOOK FOR
HIGHS TO RECOVER A BIT FOR NEXT WEEKEND BACK INTO THE LOW 70S TO
LOW 80S. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL NOT BE AS COOL WITH CLOUDS ON THE
INCREASE AS LOW RANGE IN THE LOW 50 TO MID 60S THROUGH SUNDAY
MORNING. LOWS DO COOL THROUGH THURSDAY OF NEXT WEEK AS LOWS RETURN
TO THE LOW 40S TO LOW 50S
FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS:
THERE IS MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF AFTERNOON
ISOLATED, MOSTLY DRY THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS FAR NORTHEASTERN NV
SUNDAY.
THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS NEVADA FOR
MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING
THERE IS MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE UPPER PATTERN FOR TUESDAY
EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY OF NEXT WEEK AS MODELS AGREE ON THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A LARGE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE NORTHERN HALF
OF THE US WEST COAST THAT WILL BRING SHOWER/STORM CHANCES BACK TO
NEVADA.
AVIATION
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT ALL TERMINALS THRU THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
SOUTHERLY BREEZES PRESENT THIS AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA BETWEEN 18KT AND 23KT. WINDS EASE THRU THIS EVENING,
BECOMING GENERALLY LIGHT FOR THE OVERNIGHT.
FIRE WEATHER
THERE WILL A RISK FOR ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS FOR THE
NORTHERN PARTS OF FW ZONES 438, 469, AND 470 AS THERE WILL BE A
10% TO 20% CHANCE FOR ISOLATED, MOSTLY DRY THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY
AFTERNOON THOUGH EVENING. THE BEST CHANCES FOR STORMS SHOULD THEY
FORM WILL BE ALONG THE NV/ID BORDER FROM THE OWYHEE DESERT TO THE
JARBIDGE MOUNTAINS REGION TO THE UT BORDER. THE MAIN HAZARDS FROM
THESE STORMS WILL BE GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS UP TO 50 MPH, AND CLOUD
TO GROUND LIGHTNING STRIKES. ELSEWHERE SUNDAY, CONDITIONS WILL
FAVOR QUIET WEATHER WITH LIGHT TO BREEZY SW WINDS OF 5 TO 15 MPH
WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH POSSIBLE. MONDAY INTO TUESDAY EVENING LOOK
TO BE QUIET WEATHER WISE AS DRIER SW FLOW PUSHES STORM CHANCES
EAST WINDS REMAIN OUT OF THE SW AT 5 TO 15 MPH, BUT WILL SHIFT
WESTERLY TUESDAY AT SIMILAR SPEEDS. TUESDAY EVENING A LARGE UPPER
TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO PUSH A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION THAT WILL
BRING COOLER TEMPERATURES, MORE HUMID AIR, AND BRING A RETURN OF
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ACROSS ALL NEVADA ZONES THROUGH
FRIDAY. HOWEVER TIMING OF THIS FRONT MAY BE A CONCERN FOR CENTRAL
NEVADA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON, AS THERE WILL BE A PERIOD OF ELEVATED
TO NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT,
FOR ZONE 425 AS BREEZY SOUTH WINDS OF 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS UP
TO 35 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG WITH RH VALUES DROPPING TO NEAR
10% TO 15%. WILL NEED TO WATCH TRENDS TO SEE IF HEADLINES MAY BE
NEEDED.
LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...98
AVIATION...92
FIRE WEATHER...98
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