805
FXUS65 KLKN 080858
AFDLKN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
158 AM PDT MON SEP 8 2025
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 156 AM PDT MON SEP 8 2025
* DRY CONDITIONS MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS UPPER RIDGE
BUILDS OVER THE FOUR CORNERS, KEEPING DRIER SW FLOW ALOFT OVER
NEVADA.
* TUESDAY EVENING A STRONG UPPER TROUGH WITH PACIFIC MOISTURE
WILL PUSH IN FROM THE NW BRINGING A RETURN OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS, AS WELL AS COOLER TEMPERATURES THROUGH SATURDAY.
* AFTER A BRIEF BREAK SUNDAY ANOTHER STRONG PACIFIC TROUGH LOOKS
TO MOVE INTO NEVADA MONDAY OF NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
(TODAY THROUGH NEXT MONDAY)
DRIER SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW OVERSPREADING THE SILVER STATE KEEPING
DRY QUIET WEATHER THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON BEFORE A EARLY FALL
PREVIEW COMES TO THE SILVER STATE IN THE FORM OF A SERIES OF
PACIFIC UPPER TROUGHS. MONDAY, THE DRIER SW FLOW ALOFT ONGOING
ACROSS NEVADA, GIVING US A QUIET DAY AND A HALF WEATHER WISE.
AFTER TUESDAY AFTERNOON, MODELS REMAIN IN DECENT AGREEMENT AS BOTH
THE GFS AND THE EC SHOW A NORTHERN STREAM, LARGE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH DIGGING SOUTHEAST OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE WEST COAST.
THIS TROUGH WILL BRING A MOIST PACIFIC AIR MASS OVER THE REGION
AS IT SLOWLY MOVES INTO AND ACROSS NEVADA, STARTING TUESDAY
EVENING, BEFORE DEPARTING EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. THIS SYSTEM WILL
BRING SEVERAL ROUNDS OF SHOWERS, A FEW THUNDERSTORMS AND COOLER
TEMPERATURES. SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY A SHORTWAVE RIDGE
WILL TRANSIT NEVADA BRINGING A QUICK WARM-UP AND QUIET WEATHER.
MODELS SOLUTIONS DO REMAIN IN FAVOR OF A SECOND TROUGH PUSHING
ACROSS THE REGION. THE FORECAST TRACK WITH THIS SECOND TROUGH IS
STILL A BIT UNCERTAIN AS RUNS HAVE BEEN WAVERING BACK AND FORTH,
BETWEEN TWO LIKELY SOLUTIONS A PATH SIMILAR TO PRIOR ONE. OR FOR A
FASTER, SHALLOWER, MORE NORTHERN TRACK WITH THIS SYSTEM WHICH IF
HOLDS FAVORS MORE IMPACTS FOR NORTHERN NEVADA WHICH WOULD LIMIT
POTENTIAL IMPACTS. FOR NOW WILL KEEP WITH THE FASTER NORTHERN
SOLUTION UNTIL A MORE OF A PERSISTENT TREND EMERGES. TEMPERATURES
FAVOR A CONTINUED COOLING TREND AS HIGHS START THE MID 70S TO MID
80S, MONDAY AFTERNOON. TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY HIGHS WILL COOL
FURTHER, FALLING INTO THE MID 60S TO MID 70S BY FRIDAY. LOOK FOR
HIGHS TO RECOVER A BIT FOR NEXT WEEKEND BACK INTO THE LOW 70S TO
LOW 80S BY NEXT MONDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL FOLLOW A SIMILAR TREND
AS MONDAY MORNING TEMPERATURES RANGE IN THE MID 40S TO MID 50S,
LOWS COOL SLIGHTLY INTO THE LOW 40S TO LOW 50S BY SATURDAY
MORNING. WITH THE BREAK IN CONDITIONS TEMPS DROP INTO THE UPPER
30S TO UPPER 40S FOR THE WEEKEND BEFORE RECOVERING SLIGHTLY BACK
INTO THE LOW 40S TO LOW 50S BY NEXT MONDAY.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS:
THERE IS MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF AFTERNOON
ISOLATED, MOSTLY DRY THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS FAR NORTHEASTERN NV
SUNDAY.
THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS NEVADA FOR
MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON
THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF A STRONG SLOW
MOVING PACIFIC UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH NEVADA
BEGINNING TUESDAY EVENING, EXITING THE REGION SATURDAY MORNING.
THIS TROUGH WILL BRING SEVERAL ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
FOR NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NEVADA FOR THE WEEK.
AVIATION
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT ALL TERMINALS THRU THE NEXT 24 HOURS
UNDER MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS. SOUTHWESTERLY BREEZES PRESENT
THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE STRONGEST GUSTS AT KELY AT 25KT. GUSTS
FORECAST 18KT TO 20KT ELSEWHERE, SLIGHTLY LIGHTER AT KENV HOWEVER.
WINDS EASE THRU THIS EVENING, BECOMING GENERALLY LIGHT AND
VARIABLE FOR THE OVERNIGHT.
FIRE WEATHER
A FEW DAYS OF REPRIEVE FROM ACTIVE WEATHER CONTINUES INTO MONDAY
FOR ALL ZONES. SUSTAINED WINDS AND WIND GUSTS TUESDAY AFTERNOON
OVER FIRE WEATHER ZONES 425/426 MEET FIRE WEATHER CRITERIA RANGING
BETWEEN 15-20 MPH AND GUSTING NEAR 30-33 MPH OUT OF THE
SOUTHWEST. RH VALUES ARE BORDERLINE AT THIS TIME BUT FORECAST
TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR PRODUCTS IN
FORECAST ZONE 425 TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
TUESDAY EVENING A SYSTEM FROM THE NORTHWEST BEGINS TO ENCROACH ON
THE AREA INCREASING MOISTURE FROM WEST TO EAST. SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS FORECAST OVER ZONES 424/437 TUESDAY
EVENING WITH MORE WET THAN DRY STORM ACTIVITY. PRECIPITATION AND
MOISTURE INCREASE ACROSS ALL FIRE ZONES HEADED INTO WEDNESDAY.
LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...98
AVIATION...92
FIRE WEATHER...99
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page