868
FXUS65 KLKN 090756
AFDLKN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
1256 AM PDT TUE SEP 9 2025
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1206 AM PDT TUE SEP 9 2025
* DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS UPPER RIDGE BUILDS
OVER THE FOUR CORNERS, KEEPING DRIER SW FLOW ALOFT OVER NEVADA.
* TUESDAY EVENING A STRONG UPPER TROUGH WITH PACIFIC MOISTURE
WILL PUSH IN FROM THE NW BRINGING A RETURN OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS, AS WELL AS COOLER TEMPERATURES THROUGH SATURDAY.
* AFTER A BRIEF BREAK SUNDAY ANOTHER STRONG PACIFIC TROUGH LOOKS
TO MOVE INTO NEVADA MONDAY OF NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
(TODAY THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY)
WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW: A PAIR OF WEATHER MAKING TROUGHS WILL
IMPACT THE REGION OVER THE NEW 7 DAYS. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
CURRENTLY TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE AREA JUST OFF THE CA/OR COAST
WILL ENCROACH ON NV THIS WEEK CREATING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW OVER THE
STATE. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN AS THE LPC PUSHES CLOSER
TO THE AREA INCREASING WIND SPEEDS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. THE
SYSTEM CARRIES ENOUGH PACIFIC MOISTURE WITH IT TO INCREASE PW
VALUES OVER WESTERN NV TO A RANGE OF 0.7-0.8 INCHES BY WEDNESDAY
MORNING. SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL INITIATE MAINLY OVER HUMBOLDT COUNTY
WHERE THE BEST CHANCES OF WETTING RAIN ARE POSSIBLE. STORM TOTAL
QPF HAS A RANGE OF 0.1-0.4 INCHES OF WETTING RAIN MAINLY NORTH OF
I-80 WITH THE FIRST SYSTEM. AS THE LPC MOVES THROUGH THE CWA
CONVECTIVE CHANCES INCREASE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AFTERNOONS
THANKS TO INCREASED FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM. GFS
FRONTOGENESIS GUIDANCE SUGGEST HEAVIER RAINFALL AMOUNTS POSSIBLE
IN A CORRIDOR THAT ENCOMPASSES NORTHERN LANDER, NORTHERN EUREKA,
AND WESTERN ELKO COUNTIES WEDNESDAY EVENING.
TEMPERATURES BEHIND THE ASSOCIATED BOUNDARY PUSHING THROUGH THE
STATE EARLY THURSDAY WILL FALL BACK INTO THE 60S AND 70S FOR
HIGHS BEFORE A SLIGHT REBOUND UNDER A BRIEF RIDGE SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY. ON SUNDAY A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL EJECT FROM ITS PARENT
TROUGH TO THE NORTHWEST INTO THE GREAT BASIN. A SIMILAR SETUP TO
THE FIRST SYSTEM UNFOLDS OVER THE AREA SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AS
MOISTURE AGAIN INCREASES FROM WEST TO EAST. THE BEST CHANCES FOR
RAINFALL AGAIN WILL TAKE PLACE OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE STATE
WHERE BEST FORCING AND MOISTURE AVAILABILITY RESIDE. THIS SECOND
SYSTEM MOVES FAIRLY QUICKLY THROUGH THE AREA AND PLACES THE REGION
UNDER A POST FRONTAL REGIME BY NEXT TUESDAY. BEYOND TUESDAY, A
BREAK FROM ACTIVE WEATHER IS POSSIBLE AS THE STORM TRACK ACROSS
THE WESTERN CONUS SHIFTS TO THE NORTH SLIGHTLY.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS: NO MAJOR CHANGES TO GRIDS AS NBM
ACTUALLY IS HANDLING THE INCOMING SYSTEMS WELL.
AVIATION
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING AS
NO PRECIPITATION IS FORECAST. SOUTHWESTERLY AFTERNOON WIND GUSTS
ON TUESDAY AT TERMINALS KTPH AND KELY WILL RANGE 20-24KTS BEFORE
DIMINISHING TUESDAY EVENING AROUND SUNSET.
FIRE WEATHER
QUIET WEATHER CONTINUES THROUGH TUESDAY AHEAD OF
INCOMING SYSTEM SET TO IMPACT THE REGION WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
STRONGER SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
OVER FIRE WEATHER ZONES 425 AND 426 WHERE SUSTAINED WINDS OF
15-20 MPH AND GUSTS NEAR 30 MPH ARE POSSIBLE. AFTERNOON RH VALUES
HOWEVER ARE BORDERLINE OR ABOVE FOR FIRE WEATHER CRITERIA.
THE INCOMING SYSTEM WILL SPREAD SHOWER AND STORM ACTIVITY
INITIALLY ACROSS FIRE WEATHER ZONES 424 AND 437. INITIAL STORM
ACTIVITY MAY BE OF THE DRY VARIETY BEFORE SUFFICIENT MOISTURE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM BRINGS MORE WETTING RAINS TO THE
REGION. AREAL COVERAGE OF SHOWER AND STORM ACTIVITY WILL EXPAND TO
ALL FIRE WEATHER ZONES THROUGH THE WEEK.
LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...99
AVIATION...99
FIRE WEATHER...99
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