578
FXUS65 KLKN 100919
AFDLKN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
219 AM PDT WED SEP 10 2025
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 127 AM PDT WED SEP 10 2025
* A STRONG UPPER TROUGH WITH PACIFIC MOISTURE WILL PUSH IN FROM
THE NW BRINGING A RETURN OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, AS WELL
AS COOLER TEMPERATURES THROUGH SATURDAY.
* FOR TODAY, STRONG WINDS AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY IN
NORTHEASTERN AND EASTERN NEVADA HAVE PROMPTED RED FLAG WARNINGS
IN FIRE ZONES 425 AND 470, WITH ELEVATED CONDITIONS ELSEWHERE.
* AFTER A BRIEF BREAK SUNDAY ANOTHER STRONG PACIFIC TROUGH LOOKS
TO MOVE INTO NEVADA MONDAY OF NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
(TODAY THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY)
WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW: SYNOPTIC OVERVIEW THIS MORNING IS SHOWING
A LARGE CLOSED UPPER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SPINNING OVER NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA AT THIS TIME. OUT AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE, CLOUDS AND
LIGHT PRECIPITATION IS CURRENTLY BEING NOTED ON RADAR WITH LIGHT
AMOUNTS SEEN ON REMOTE OBSERVATION PLATFORMS. FOR TODAY, ALL
MODELS ARE SHOWING THIS UPPER LOW MOVING VERY LITTLE IN THE WAY OF
FORWARD PROPAGATION AND IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN SPINNING ACROSS
NORTHERN CALIFORNIA THROUGH EARLY TOMORROW MORNING. AS A RESULT,
EXPECT LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. FURTHER
EAST, ACROSS PORTIONS OF EASTERN NEVADA, WINDS WILL PICK UP AND
COMBINE WITH LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES TO PRODUCE CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS. AS A RESULT, RED FLAG WARNINGS HAVE BEEN
HOISTED ALONG THE FIRE WEATHER BORDER ZONES WITH UTAH. HIGHS TODAY
WILL BE COOLER WITH READINGS IN THE 60S AND 70S WITH THE COOLER
READINGS FELT IN WEST-CENTRAL NEVADA WHERE THE CLOUDS AND
PRECIPITATION ARE EXPECTED. WINDS WILL BE BREEZY EXCEPT THOSE
LOCATIONS PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED (WHICH PROMPTED THE RED FLAG
WARNINGS). LIGHT PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE
OVERNIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE 40S.
ALL MODELS ARE SHOWING THE CLOSED UPPER LOW SHIFTING TO THE NORTHEAST
WITH A POSITION ACROSS SOUTHEAST OREGON. THE CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION (FORTY TO SEVENTY PERCENT CHANCE) WILL INCREASE
FURTHER EAST AND SOUTH, WITH LIGHT SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ACROSS PORTIONS OF US HIGHWAY 50 NORTH AS
WELL AS THOSE AREAS ALONG THE UTAH BORDER. GENERAL AMOUNTS ARE
FORECAST TO BE AROUND A TRACE TO ROUGHLY A TENTH OF AN INCH OR SO,
WITH THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS SEE ACROSS THE NORTH AND ALSO IN THE
HIGH TERRAIN LOCATIONS. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE BREEZY WITH
GUSTS TO 20 TO 25 MPH ACROSS WHITE PINE COUNTY TOMORROW AFTERNOON.
HIGHS WILL REMAIN ON THE COOL SIDE WITH READINGS IN THE 60S AND
70S. LOOK FOR VERY LIGHT PRECIPITATION DURING THE OVERNIGHT WITH
LOWS IN THE 40S.
BY FRIDAY, THE UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY MOVE NORTHEAST BUT
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NEVADA WILL STILL SEE ITS EFFECTS. PLENTY OF
CLOUD COVER WITH SOME SUN POKING THROUGH WILL BE THE RULE WITH
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS (TWENTY TO FIFTY PERCENT CHANCE) IN
THE AFTERNOON. RAINFALL AMOUNTS REMAIN ON THE LIGHT SIDE WITH UP
TO TEN TO TWENTY HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH OR SO POSSIBLE IN SPOTS
WITH MANY AREAS SEEING A TRACE TO ABOUT FIVE HUNDREDTHS. HIGHS
WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL WITH READINGS AGAIN IN THE 60S AND 70S.
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT.
SATURDAY THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK, MODELS ARE SHOWING A
SLOW END TO THE LIGHT PRECIPITATION OVER MUCH OF THE AREA AS SHORT
WAVE RIDGING MOVES IN FROM THE WEST. THIS WILL HELP TO BRING A
SLOW WARM-UP TO THE REGION WITH MODERATING TEMPERATURES TO THE 70S
AND 80S DURING THE UPCOMING WEEKEND WITH LOWS IN THE 40S.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS: NO MAJOR CHANGES WERE MADE TO
THE GRIDDED FORECAST AS NBM ACTUALLY IS HANDLING THE INCOMING
SYSTEMS WELL.
AVIATION
VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE THE PREDOMINANT FLIGHT
CATEGORY TODAY AS AN INCOMING STORM SYSTEM BRINGS INCREASING
CHANCES FOR LIGHT PRECIPITATION TO THE AREA. THERE WILL BE
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS AFFECTING THE VICINITY OF TERMINALS KWMC,
KBAM, KEKO, AND KTPH THIS AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 20-30KT.
THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE FELT AT SITES KELY AND KTPH. LOOK FOR
WINDS TO DIMINISH AFTER 03Z THIS EVENING.
FIRE WEATHER
STRONGER SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON OVER FIRE
WEATHER ZONES 425 AND 470 WHERE SUSTAINED WINDS OF 15-20 MPH AND
GUSTS NEAR 35 MPH ARE LIKELY. COMBINED WITH AFTERNOON MINIMUM
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES IN THE LOW TEENS HAVE PROMPTED A RED FLAG
WARNING IN THE ABOVE ZONES. HOWEVER OTHER LOCATIONS WILL REMAIN
BORDERLINE WITH ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CRITERIA EXPECTED.
THE INCOMING SYSTEM WILL SPREAD SHOWER AND STORM ACTIVITY
INITIALLY ACROSS FIRE WEATHER ZONES 424 AND 437. INITIAL STORM
ACTIVITY MAY BE OF THE DRY VARIETY BEFORE SUFFICIENT MOISTURE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM BRINGS MORE WETTING RAINS TO THE
REGION. AREAL COVERAGE OF SHOWER AND STORM ACTIVITY WILL EXPAND TO
ALL FIRE WEATHER ZONES THROUGH TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. THIS WILL BRING
INCREASES IN AFTERNOON MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES TO THE
TEENS AND TWENTIES (OR HIGHER) WITH BREEZY WINDS BUT GUSTS TO 30
MPH ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE WIDESPREAD. HIGHS WILL COOL INTO THE
60S AND 70S.
LOOK FOR SOME DRYING OUT THIS WEEKEND AS A SHORTWAVE RIDGE BUILDS
INTO NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NEVADA. HIGHS WILL WARM INTO THE 70S AND
80S THOUGH WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT.
LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM PDT THIS
EVENING NVZ425-470.
DISCUSSION...86
AVIATION...99
FIRE WEATHER...99
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