210
FXUS65 KLKN 122122
AFDLKN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
222 PM PDT FRI SEP 12 2025
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 220 PM PDT FRI SEP 12 2025
* A STRONG UPPER TROUGH WITH PACIFIC MOISTURE WILL PUSH IN FROM
THE NW BRINGING A RETURN OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, AS WELL
AS COOLER TEMPERATURES THROUGH SATURDAY.
* A QUIET WEATHER PATTERN SETS UP OVER THE SILVER STATE BEYOND THE
WEEKEND.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 220 PM PDT FRI SEP 12 2025
THUNDERSTORMS AND SHOWERS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION
AS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON FORECAST PACKAGE IS ON TRACK WITH ONLY
MINOR UPDATES TO TIMING.
DISCUSSION
(TODAY THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY)
WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW: CURRENT WEATHER PATTERN DEPICTS AN
ELONGATED UPPER TROUGH ACROSS NORTHWESTERN NEVADA WITH UPPER
RIDGING OVER TEXAS. THIS PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH
TODAY, RESULTING IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS (FIFTEEN TO SIXTY PERCENT CHANCE) AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NORTHWARD ACROSS
NORTHEASTERN NEVADA. THE MAIN THREATS WILL BE CLOUD TO GROUND
LIGHTNING AND WIND GUSTS TO 45 MPH. FORECAST PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS
ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT WITH MANY LOCATIONS SEEING
LESS THAN FIVE-HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
LIGHT. HIGHS WILL BE COOLER THAN NORMAL WITH READINGS IN THE 60S
AND 70S. DRY AND QUIET CONDITIONS EXPECTED TONIGHT WITH OVERNIGHT
LOWS DIPPING INTO THE 30S AND 40S.
ON SATURDAY, ALL MODELS ARE SHOWING THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS SLOWLY
EXITING TO THE EAST INTO UTAH DURING THE DAY. THE FLOW WILL SWITCH
TO THE NORTHWEST WITH CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION (TEN TO TWENTY
PERCENT CHANCE) ACROSS NORTHEAST ELKO COUNTY IN THE AFTERNOON.
WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT WITH HIGHS AGAIN IN THE 70S. LOOK FOR
CLEAR SKIES DURING THE OVERNIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE 30S AND 40S.
A SHORTWAVE RIDGE AXIS WILL BREEZE THROUGH NORTHERN AND CENTRAL
NEVADA SATURDAY AND PORTIONS OF SUNDAY. THIS WILL BRING WARMING
TEMPERATURES OF THE 70S AND 80S TO THE AREA ON BOTH DAYS WITH
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE SUNDAY
AFTERNOON IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM. THE WEATHER
SYSTEM WILL SKIRT NORTH. THIS WILL BRING A TEN TO THIRTY PERCENT
PROBABILITY FOR SHOWERS NORTH OF I-80 WITH LOW RAINFALL AMOUNTS
EXPECTED. HIGHS WILL COOL A FEW DEGREES WITH READINGS DIPPING INTO
THE 70S AND 80S. WINDS WILL BE LOCALLY BREEZY WITH GUSTS TO 20
MPH. LOOK FOR QUIET WEATHER MONDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE 30S AND
40S.
TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY, UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA WITH
MAINLY QUIET CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE
80S WITH LOWS IN THE 30S AND 40S.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS: NO CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE
FORECAST. CONFIDENCE REMAINS MODERATE TO HIGH ON WARMING
CONDITIONS THIS WEEKEND.
AVIATION
VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE THE PREDOMINANT FLIGHT CATEGORY
THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. KBAM-KEKO-KTPH TERMINALS WILL SEE VCTS
DURING THE LATER MORNING TO EARLY EVENING HOURS WITH VCSH BY MID-
EVENING. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT THOUGH WIND GUSTS TO 30 KNOTS
ARE POSSIBLE WITH ANY STORM.
FIRE WEATHER
LOOK FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO ONCE AGAIN DEVELOP OVER NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL NEVADA TODAY. RAINFALL AMOUNTS ACROSS THE REGION WILL
GENERALLY REMAIN ON THE LIGHT SIDE THOUGH SOME LOCATIONS COULD SEE
A TWENTY TO FORTY PERCENT CHANCE OF WETTING RAINS. AFTER TONIGHT,
A PERIOD OF DRYING OUT WILL COMMENCE WITH SEVERAL DEGREES OF
WARMING DURING THE WEEKEND. ANOTHER SYSTEM, THIS TIME SKIRTING
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF NEVADA AND SOUTHERN IDAHO, BRINGING ISOLATED
SHOWERS TO LOCALES NORTH OF I-80. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL RETURN TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY WITH DRY CONDITIONS
PERSISTING.
LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...86
AVIATION...86
FIRE WEATHER...84
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