478
FXUS65 KLKN 150803
AFDLKN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
103 AM PDT MON SEP 15 2025
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1223 AM PDT MON SEP 15 2025
* A QUIET WEATHER PATTERN SETS UP OVER THE SILVER STATE THIS WEEK
* A SLOW WARMING TREND TAKES PLACE THIS WEEK AHEAD OF INCREASING
PRECIPITATION CHANCES FOR CENTRAL NV BY FRIDAY
DISCUSSION
(TODAY THROUGH NEXT MONDAY)
WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW: AN LPC TO THE NORTHEAST OVER THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES MIGRATES EASTWARD EARLY THIS WEEK AND RIDGING
BUILDS OVER THE WEST COAST AND GREAT BASIN. UNDER A STABLE, DRY
ATMOSPHERE TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY A COUPLE DEGREES EACH DAY
TO TOP OUT IN THE MID 80S BY LATE WEEK. THE RIDGE WILL MAINTAIN
POSITION OVER THE AREA THROUGH LATE WEEK THOUGH AS IT BEGINS TO
PUSH EAST ITS WESTERN FLANK WILL OPEN THE AREA OF TO SOUTHERLY
FLOW. COINCIDING WITH THIS SHIFT A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MAKING ITS
WAY NORTHWARD FROM THE BAJA OF CALIFORNIA UP THE WEST COAST WILL
INTRODUCE MOISTURE TO THE SW CONUS.
MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO SEEP INTO CENTRAL NV THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY AS PW VALUES CLIMB TO AROUND 0.7-0.8 INCHES OVER NORTHERN
NYE AND WHITE PINE COUNTIES. BY MIDDAY FRIDAY ENOUGH INSTABILITY
(AROUND 300 J/KG OF CAPE) OVER CENTRAL AND EAST-CENTRAL NV WILL
HELP INITIATE SHOWER AND CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY. AREAL COVERAGE IS
MAINLY CONFINED TO AN AREA ALONG AND SOUTH OF US-50 WITH SOME
ISOLATED CONVECTION AS FAR NORTH AS SOUTHEAST ELKO COUNTY
POSSIBLE. A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF RAINFALL OUT OF THIS MOISTURE PUSH
IS POSSIBLE OVER CENTRAL PARTS OF NV THOUGH A WIDESPREAD RAINFALL
EVENT IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME. INTO NEXT WEEKEND MODEL
DISAGREEMENT EXISTS AROUND THE POSITIONING AND TIMING OF A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT COULD BRING ADDITIONAL RAINFALL TO THE
REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS:
WITH RIDGING SETTING IN NO DEVIATIONS FROM THE FORECAST WERE
NECESSARY AS THE WEATHER PATTERN OVER NV WILL BE QUIET FOR SEVERAL
DAYS. NBM IS AGGRESSIVE WITH AREAL COVERAGE OF RAINFALL OVER THE
REGION WITH THE INCOMING MOISTURE PUSH LATER THIS WEEK DESPITE
MODEL CONSENSUS KEEPING APPRECIABLE MOISTURE CONFINED TO CENTRAL
AND EAST-CENTRAL NV. CURRENT THINKING IS TO WAIT ON FUTURE MODEL
RUNS BEFORE CORRECTING NBM FORECAST FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
AVIATION
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT AS NO
PRECIPITATION IS IN THE FORECAST. AFTERNOON WIND GUSTS ON MONDAY
AT TERMINALS KEKO AND KELY WILL REACH NEAR 20 KTS THROUGH EVENING
HOURS.
FIRE WEATHER
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE GREAT BASIN WILL KEEP THE WEATHER
FAIRLY BENIGN THIS WEEK. AFTERNOON GUSTS COULD REACH TO NEAR 20
MPH AT TIMES AND THE REGION WILL SEE A DECREASE IN RH EACH
AFTERNOON. MORE ACTIVE WEATHER IS POSSIBLE INTO NEXT WEEKEND AS
INCREASED MOISTURE MAY BRING SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TO
FIRE WEATHER ZONES 425/426/427.
LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...99
AVIATION...99
FIRE WEATHER...99
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