210
FXUS65 KLKN 032016
AFDLKN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
116 PM PDT FRI OCT 3 2025
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1232 PM PDT FRI OCT 3 2025
* RAINFALL CONTINUES THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT AND ENDS SATURDAY
MORNING.
* MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF NEXT
WEEK WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S AND 60S, AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE
20S TO 30S.
* TEMPERATURE WILL RECOVER BACK INTO THE 60S AND 70S NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
(THIS EVENING THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY)
WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW: A BAND OF SHOWERS ARE ONGOING RIGHT NOW
FROM NYE COUNTY ALL THE WAY TO THE IDAHO BORDER, AND A FEW MORE
ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POPPING UP IN HUMBOLDT COUNTY AS THIS LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM MAKES ITS WAY ACROSS NEVADA. HUMBOLDT COUNTY IS
MOSTLY DRIED OUT ALREADY, ONLY EXPECTING ANOTHER TENTH OF AN INCH
AT MOST, BUT THE REST OF THE FORECAST AREA IS LOOKING AT SOMEWHERE
BETWEEN A QUARTER AND HALF AN INCH STILL TO COME. AS USUAL HIGHER
ELEVATIONS CAN EXPECT MORE, PARTICULARLY THE EAST HUMBOLDT AND
RUBY MOUNTAINS, INDEPENDENCE RANGE, AND JARBIDGE WILDERNESS AREA.
MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO FALL THROUGH SATURDAY
MORNING, BUT SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS MAY LINGER THROUGH SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. THE BULK OF THE SYSTEM EXITS TO THE EAST BY SUNDAY
MORNING, BUT TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN COOL, WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S
AND LOW 60S BEFORE BEGINNING TO WARM ON MONDAY.
MODELS ARE CURRENTLY IN MAJOR DISAGREEMENT BEYOND MONDAY, MAKING
IT MUCH MORE DIFFICULT TO DETERMINSTRONG FALL TROUGH TO BRING BENEFICIAL RAINFALL ACROSS
NORTHEASTERN NEVADA ON FRIDAY.E THE FORECAST. THE POSSIBILITY
STILL EXISTS FOR A WEAK SECONDARY TROUGH ON TUESDAY BUT CONFIDENCE
IN THIS SOLUTION HAS GREATLY DECREASED. THE MORE FAVORED OPTION,
AND THE ONE CURRENTLY REFLECTED IN THIS FORECAST, IS FOR A RIDGE
TO BEGIN BUILDING OVER THE WEST COAST ON TUESDAY. THIS WOULD LEAD
TO DRY WEATHER AND WARMER TEMPERATURES. A STRONG LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM IS THEN EXPECTED TO MOVE ONSHORE BUT THE TIMING IS VERY
UNCERTAIN. THE CURRENT INDICATION IS FOR IT TO BEGIN IMPACTING
NEVADA ON FRIDAY, BUT THURSDAY AND SATURDAY ARE BOTH SUPPORTED AS
WELL. THIS SYSTEM WOULD LIKELY BE VERY SIMILAR TO THE ONE
CURRENTLY OVERHEAD, BRINGING COOL TEMPERATURES AND RAIN OR
POSSIBLY SNOW, BUT AGAIN, MODEL AGREEMENT AND FORECAST CONFIDENCE
ARE VERY LOW AND THIS FORECAST COULD CHANGE DRAMATICALLY BY THE
NEXT UPDATE.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS: HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE
REMAINDER OF THE CURRENT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. HIGH CONFIDENCE IN
COOL TEMPERATURES THIS WEEKEND WHICH BEGIN TO WARM MONDAY. HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN RIDGING FOLLOWED BY TROUGHING FOR NEXT WEEK BUT VERY
LOW CONFIDENCE IN TIMING OR TRACK.
AVIATION
VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO BE THE PRIMARY FLIGHT
CONDITIONS THROUGH SATURDAY. STRONG UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM
BRINGING RAIN AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS FOR ALL TERMINALS. FLIGHT
CONDITIONS THROUGH SATURDAY, ALONG WITH CIGS/VSBY WILL DROP TO
MVFR/IFR LEVELS FOR PERIOD OF TIME IN THE HEAVIER SHOWERS. WINDS
WILL SHIFT NORTHERLY FOR I-80 TERMINALS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON, AT
10KT TO 20KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 30KT POSSIBLE. SOUTHERN TERMINALS
OF KTPH AND KELY WINDS WILL START SW AT 10 TO 20 KT WITH GUSTS UP
TO 30 KT POSSIBLE, SIFTING AT AROUND 06Z TO THE NW.
FIRE WEATHER
MINIMAL FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THROUGH SATURDAY
NIGHT AS RAINFALL, MOUNTAIN SNOW, AND A FEW EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS FROM A STRONG UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM MOVE ACROSS
THE SILVER STATE. TEMPERATURES WILL BE MUCH COOLER WITH HIGHS IN
THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S TO
UPPER 30S. SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY OF NEXT WEEK WILL SEE
TEMPERATURES RECOVER BACK INTO THE UPPER 60S BUT A SECOND UPPER
TROUGH PUSHING INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE FIRST WILL KEEP
CONDITIONS UNSETTLED WITH A LOW 10% TO 20% CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...94
AVIATION...98
FIRE WEATHER...98
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