915
FXUS65 KLKN 040842
AFDLKN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
142 AM PDT SAT OCT 4 2025
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 135 AM PDT SAT OCT 4 2025
* MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF NEXT
WEEK WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S AND 60S, AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE
20S TO 30S.
* TEMPERATURE WILL RECOVER BACK INTO THE 60S AND 70S NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
(TODAY THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY)
WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW: MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED
TO FALL THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING, BUT SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS MAY
LINGER THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THE BULK OF THE SYSTEM EXITS TO
THE EAST BY SUNDAY MORNING, BUT TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN COOL,
WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S AND LOW 60S BEFORE BEGINNING TO WARM ON
MONDAY.
MODELS ARE CURRENTLY IN MAJOR DISAGREEMENT BEYOND MONDAY, MAKING
IT MUCH MORE DIFFICULT TO DETERMINE THE FORECAST. STRONG FALL
TROUGH TO BRING BENEFICIAL RAINFALL ACROSS NORTHEASTERN NEVADA ON
FRIDAY. THE POSSIBILITY STILL EXISTS FOR A WEAK SECONDARY TROUGH
ON TUESDAY BUT CONFIDENCE IN THIS SOLUTION HAS GREATLY DECREASED.
THE MORE FAVORED OPTION, AND THE ONE CURRENTLY REFLECTED IN THIS
FORECAST, IS FOR A RIDGE TO BEGIN BUILDING OVER THE WEST COAST ON
TUESDAY. THIS WOULD LEAD TO DRY WEATHER AND WARMER TEMPERATURES. A
STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS THEN EXPECTED TO MOVE ONSHORE BUT
THE TIMING IS VERY UNCERTAIN. THE CURRENT INDICATION IS FOR IT TO
BEGIN IMPACTING NEVADA ON FRIDAY, BUT THURSDAY AND SATURDAY ARE
BOTH SUPPORTED AS WELL. THIS SYSTEM WOULD LIKELY BE VERY SIMILAR
TO THE ONE CURRENTLY OVERHEAD, BRINGING COOL TEMPERATURES AND RAIN
OR POSSIBLY SNOW, BUT AGAIN, MODEL AGREEMENT AND FORECAST
CONFIDENCE ARE VERY LOW AND THIS FORECAST COULD CHANGE
DRAMATICALLY BY THE NEXT UPDATE.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS: HIGH CONFIDENCE IN COOL
TEMPERATURES THIS WEEKEND WHICH BEGIN TO WARM MONDAY. HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN RIDGING FOLLOWED BY TROUGHING FOR NEXT WEEK BUT VERY
LOW CONFIDENCE IN TIMING OR TRACK.
AVIATION
VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO BE THE PRIMARY FLIGHT
CONDITIONS THROUGH SATURDAY. STRONG UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM
BRINGING RAIN AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS FOR ALL TERMINALS. FLIGHT
CONDITIONS THROUGH SATURDAY, ALONG WITH CIGS/VSBY WILL DROP TO
MVFR/IFR LEVELS FOR PERIOD OF TIME IN THE HEAVIER SHOWERS. WINDS
HAVE SHIFTED NORTHERLY FOR I-80 TERMINALS AT 10KT TO 20KT WITH
GUSTS UP TO 30KT POSSIBLE. SOUTHERN TERMINALS OF KTPH AND KELY
WINDS WILL START SW AT 10 TO 20 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 KT
POSSIBLE.
FIRE WEATHER
MINIMAL FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THROUGH SATURDAY
NIGHT AS RAINFALL, MOUNTAIN SNOW, AND A FEW EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS FROM A STRONG UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM MOVE ACROSS
THE SILVER STATE. TEMPERATURES WILL BE MUCH COOLER WITH HIGHS IN
THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S TO
UPPER 30S. SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY OF NEXT WEEK WILL SEE
TEMPERATURES RECOVER BACK INTO THE UPPER 60S BUT A SECOND UPPER
TROUGH PUSHING INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE FIRST WILL KEEP
CONDITIONS UNSETTLED WITH A LOW 10% TO 20% CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...94
AVIATION...98
FIRE WEATHER...98
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