169
FXUS65 KLKN 042016
AFDLKN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
116 PM PDT SAT OCT 4 2025
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1247 PM PDT SAT OCT 4 2025
* MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT FEW DAYS
WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S AND 60S, AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 20S TO
30S.
* TEMPERATURE WILL RECOVER BACK INTO THE 60S AND 70S BY MIDWEEK.
* WATCHING THE POSSIBILITY FOR ANOTHER STRONG TROUGH NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
(THIS EVENING THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY)
WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW: PRECIPITATION HAS DRIED UP AND COOLER
TEMPERATURES HAVE SETTLED IN. HIGHS OVER THE WEEKEND WILL STRUGGLE
TO REACH THE 60S AND LOWS WILL BE BELOW FREEZING ACROSS THE
MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST AREA. TEMPERATURES INCREASE FOR THE FIRST
HALF OF THE WEEK, RETURNING TO THE 70S FOR WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY, AS A SHORTWAVE RIDGE PASSES OVER NEVADA. THE FORECAST
GETS MUCH LESS CERTAIN AFTER THURSDAY AS MODELS DIVERGE. THERE IS
MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN A STRONG TROUGH TRAVELING DOWN FROM THE
GULF OF ALASKA AREA AND IMPACTING THE WESTERN UNITED STATES,
INCLUDING OUR COVERAGE AREA. TIMING IS CURRENTLY SHOWING INITIAL
IMPACTS STARTING BETWEEN FRIDAY AND SUNDAY, BUT IT’S GOING TO TAKE
A FEW MORE DAYS TO PIN DOWN THE PRECISE TIMING. ANOTHER QUESTION
IS HOW FAR SOUTH THE TROUGH WILL DIG, AS A DEEPER TROUGH WILL
BRING MORE INTENSE IMPACTS TO NORTHEASTERN NEVADA THAN A SHALLOW
TROUGH WOULD. THE CURRENT FORECAST PACKAGE REFLECTS THE MIDDLE
GROUND SOLUTION, WITH THE BULK OF THE IMPACTS BEGINNING SATURDAY
AND REFLECTING A MIDDLE-STRENGTH TROUGH BUT THIS FORECAST IS
ABSOLUTELY EXPECTED TO CHANGE IN THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS: HIGH CONFIDENCE IN COOL THEN
WARMING TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH MIDWEEK. MODERATE
CONFIDENCE IN ANOTHER STRONG TROUGH PASSAGE LATE WEEK, BUT LOW
CONFIDENCE IN TIMING AND LOCATION.
AVIATION
VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO BE THE PRIMARY FLIGHT
CONDITIONS THROUGH SUNDAY. STRONG UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM
DEPARTING THE REGION WILL STILL AFFECT CIGS/VSBY AS CLOUD DECK
REMAINS SCT TO BKN AT 4 TO 7KFT ALONG WITH BREEZY N WINDS AT 10KT
TO 20KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 30KT. CLOUDS WILL SLOWLY DISSIPATE, WITH
CIGS RISING ABOVE 10KFT THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT AS SHORTWAVE RIDGING
BUILDS IN OVER NEVADA.
FIRE WEATHER
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS IN THE WAKE OF THE MOST
RECENT TROUGH PASSAGE WILL REMAIN REDUCED EVEN AS SHORTWAVE
RIDGING BRING WARMER TEMPERATURES AND DRIER CONDITIONS THROUGH
THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL START IN THE MID 50S TO MID 60S FOR
HIGHS, WITH LOWS REACHING THE UPPER 20S TO UPPER 30S SUNDAY, AND
SLOWLY CLIMB BACK INTO THE UPPER 60S TO UPPER 70S BY THURSDAY,
WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S TO UPPER 40S. BREEZY, POST FRONTAL
NORTHERLY WINDS AT 10 TO 20MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 30MPH WILL
CONTINUE SATURDAY AFTERNOON, BUT WINDS WILL WEAKEN AS RIDGING
MOVES IN ACROSS NEVADA. BY MONDAY WINDS WILL BE LIGHT OUT OF THE
EAST AT 5 TO 10MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 15MPH. WINDS SHIFT BACK TO THE
SW WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY BUT REMAIN LIGHT AT 5 TO 15MPH WITH A
FEW GUSTS UP TO 25MPH POSSIBLE. AFTER THURSDAY, MODEL AGREEMENT
DEGRADES LEAVING TO A LOWER THAN NORMAL FORECAST CONFIDENCE.
HOWEVER THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY OF ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH
APPROACHING FROM THE PACIFIC BRINGING A CHANCE FOR MORE
PRECIPITATION FRIDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...94
AVIATION...98
FIRE WEATHER...98
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