110
FXUS65 KLKN 050905
AFDLKN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
205 AM PDT SUN OCT 5 2025
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1256 AM PDT SUN OCT 5 2025
* MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY WITH HIGHS IN
THE 50S AND 60S, AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 20S TO 30S.
* HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK ACROSS THE REGION WITH HIGHS
RECOVERING BACK INTO THE 60S AND 70S BY MIDWEEK.
* WATCHING THE POSSIBILITY FOR ANOTHER STRONG TROUGH WITH
INCREASED SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS AND LIGHT RAINFALL BY LATE WEEK
AND INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
(TODAY THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY)
WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW:
WATCH FOR PATCHY FOG THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY MORNING THANKS TO
RESIDUAL SOIL MOISTURE FROM ANTECEDENT RAINS AND LIGHT WINDS. ANY
FOG THAT DOES FORM SHOULD DIMINISH SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE.
HEIGHT RISES WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING SOUTHWARD ACROSS
THE STATE TODAY AS THE LONGWAVE TROUGH RESPONSIBLE FOR THE RECENT
RAINFALL MOVES OFF TO OUR EAST INTO THE PLAINS. COLD OVERNIGHT LOW
TEMPERATURES NEAR TO A FEW DEGREES BELOW FREEZING, WHICH WILL END
THE GROWING SEASON FOR LOCATIONS THAT HAVEN'T HAD A KILLING FREEZE
YET. HIGHS WILL GRADUALLY RECOVER INTO THE MID TO UPPER 60S
THROUGH TUESDAY, FINALLY RETURNING NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL
NORMALS BY WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY WITH LOW TO MID 70S. DRY
WEATHER ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH FRIDAY.
THE NEXT MAIN WEATHER PLAYER CONTINUES TO COME INTO FOCUS BY LATE
FRIDAY THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND AS A DEEPENING LONG-WAVE TROUGH MOVES
ONSHORE, THOUGH FURTHER DETAILS HAVE YET TO BE IRONED OUT WITH
DISAGREEMENT IN WHEN SEVERAL SHORT-WAVES MOVE THROUGH THIS
TROUGH. INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS AND LIGHT RAINFALL HIGH-
ELEVATION MOUNTAIN SNOW CANNOT BE RULED OUT, BUT SNOW-LEVEL DETAIL
IS TOO FAR OUT AT THIS TIME. A RETURN TO BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES WHEN THE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT
CROSS THE AREA CAN ALSO BE ANTICIPATED.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS:
UNCERTAINTY GREATLY INCREASES FRIDAY THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND
IN HOW QUICKLY THE NEXT LONGWAVE TROUGH AXIS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
INTERIOR WEST. SEVERAL LONG-RANGE ENSEMBLE CLUSTER SCENARIOS FAVOR
A SLOWER EASTWARD PROGRESSION, MAINTAINING STRONGER SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN WITH MILDER TEMPERATURES INTO
SATURDAY. OTHER CLUSTER SCENARIOS, THOUGH A MINORITY OF LONG RANGE
ENSEMBLES, PUSH AN OPEN LONG-WAVE TROUGH EASTWARD MORE QUICKLY
THROUGH THE WEEKEND, WHICH WOULD RESULT IN COOLER TEMPERATURES AND
MORE UNSETTLED CONDITIONS. PLEASE CONTINUE TO MONITOR UPCOMING
TRENDS HEADING INTO THIS WEEK.
AVIATION
MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE TERMINALS THROUGH THE DAY WITH
NORTH-NORTHEASTERLY WINDS 5 TO 10 KT, OCCASIONALLY REACHING 15
KT. SCATTERED MID-LEVEL CLOUDS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
FIRE WEATHER
LOW FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS AFTER RECENT WIDESPREAD WETTING RAINS.
HIGH TEMPERATURES 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL WILL GRADUALLY
TREND WARMER THROUGH THE WEEK AND HIGH PRESSURE STRENGTHENS ACROSS
THE REGION, INCREASING INTO THE MID TO UPPER 70S BY LATE WEEK.
LIGHT WINDS THROUGH THE WEEK, BUT AFTERNOON GUSTS INCREASE TO NEAR
25 MPH BY THURSDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT INCOMING LONGWAVE TROUGH AND
SURFACE FRONTAL SYSTEM. INCREASING CHANCES FOR ADDITIONAL
PRECIPITATION AND STRONGER WINDS FRIDAY INTO THIS WEEKEND WITH
THIS FEATURE, THOUGH DETAILS REMAIN LESS CERTAIN DEEPENING ON HOW
QUICKLY IT MOVES ONSHORE.
LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...84
AVIATION...84
FIRE WEATHER...84
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