178
FXUS65 KLKN 060912
AFDLKN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
212 AM PDT MON OCT 6 2025
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 101 AM PDT MON OCT 6 2025
* NEAR FREEZING TEMPERATURES IN THE VALLEYS OF NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL NEVADA SUNDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT.
* WARMING TREND TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
* GUSTY SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS IN CENTRAL NEVADA THURSDAY
AFTERNOON.
* PRECIPITATION CHANCES RETURN TO THE FORECAST BOTH FRIDAY INTO
THE WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
(TODAY THROUGH NEXT MONDAY)
WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW:
ANOTHER COLD MORNING, WITH PATCHY FOG AND ISOLATED AREAS OF
FREEZING FOG, THOUGH MOST LOCATIONS ARE EXPECTED TO FROST OUT
LATER THIS MORNING. THE COLD MORNINGS CONTINUE WITH PATCHY FROST
TUESDAY MORNING, AND EVEN INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING, ESPECIALLY FOR
THE VALLEYS OF ELKO AND EUREKA COUNTIES. HIGH TEMPERATURES
GRADUALLY MODERATE INTO THE MID TO UPPER 70S THROUGH THURSDAY WITH
DRY CONDITIONS.
WINDS WILL ALSO INCREASE ON THURSDAY AS A LONG-WAVE TROUGH DIGS
SOUTHWARD ALONG THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST AND DEEP SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW DEVELOPS ACROSS CALIFORNIA AND NEVADA. A WIDE SWATH OF THE
REGION FROM SOUTHERN ELKO COUNTY THROUGH NORTHERN NYE COUNTY HAS A
60-80% CHANCE FOR MAX WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 35 MPH ON THURSDAY.
MOISTURE LOOKS TO INCREASE INTO FRIDAY, WITH GREATEST CONFIDENCE
IN PRECIPITATION ACROSS NORTHEASTERN NYE AND INTO WHITE PINE
COUNTIES WITH SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE STREAMING NORTHEAST, IN PART
FROM THE REMNANTS OF HURRICANE PRISCILLA ACROSS THE EASTERN
PACIFIC AND GULF OF CALIFORNIA. BEST CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS
WILL ALSO BE ACROSS THESE AREAS OF SOUTHEASTERN AND EAST-CENTRAL
NEVADA FRIDAY BEFORE THE MAIN TROUGH AND SURFACE COLD FRONT MOVE
EASTWARD INTO THIS WEEKEND. THIS WILL BRING SNOW LEVELS DOWN WITH
INCREASING CHANCES FOR MOUNTAIN SNOW RETURNING FOR THIS WEEKEND
ALONG WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES DROPPING BACK BELOW NORMAL.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS:
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN A DRY PATTERN AND WARMING TREND THROUGH
THURSDAY. WINDS INCREASE INTO THURSDAY WITH HIGHEST CONFIDENCE
(60-80%) IN GUSTS OF AT LEAST 35 MPH ACROSS NORTHERN NYE, WHITE
PINE, AND SOUTHERN EUREKA COUNTIES.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE REMAINS FAIRLY LOW THIS WEEKEND WITH LONG-
RANGE ENSEMBLE CLUSTER SCENARIOS NEARLY EVENLY SPLIT AS TO TIMING
OF THE MAIN TROUGH AXIS AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT LATE
SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. NEARLY HALF OF THE CLUSTERS LAG THE SYSTEM
INTO SUNDAY, WITH MORE CLUSTERS COMING INTO AGREEMENT THAT A
CLOSED UPPER LOW WILL STALL ALONG THE CALIFORNIA COAST AS
ADDITIONAL ENERGY PIVOTS SOUTHWARD FROM THE GULF OF ALASKA. THIS
OUTCOME WOULD LEAD TO MORE UNSETTLED CONDITIONS WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAILING THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD ACROSS ALL
TERMINALS WITH LIGHT WINDS 5 TO 10 KT PRIMARILY FROM THE EAST-
NORTHEAST, WITH LOWER CONFIDENCE IN SOUTHERLY WINDS AT TIMES AT
KTPH FROM 20Z THROUGH 03Z.
FIRE WEATHER
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS CONTINUE TO REMAIN LOW FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS. TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO THE 70S BY MID WEEK AND MINIMUM
RH VALUES WILL REMAIN ABOVE CRITICAL THRESHOLDS. STILL WATCHING
THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG WINDS AND ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION
THURSDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH AND SURFACE
FRONTAL SYSTEM LOOK TO TRAVEL ACROSS NEVADA.
LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...84
AVIATION...84
FIRE WEATHER...94
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