581
FXUS65 KLKN 081144
AFDLKN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
444 AM PDT WED OCT 8 2025
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 441 AM PDT WED OCT 8 2025
* WARMING TREND CONTINUES THROUGH THE WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES
TOPPING OUT IN THE 70S.
* GUSTY SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS IN CENTRAL NEVADA WEDNESDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOONS.
* PRECIPITATION CHANCES RETURN TO THE FORECAST FRIDAY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 441 AM PDT WED OCT 8 2025
CREATED A NOTAM FOR TERMINAL KTPH DUE TO LOSS OF OBSERVATION
SINCE 1856Z ON 10/07.
DISCUSSION
(TODAY THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY)
WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW: THE WEATHER WILL BE REMAINING QUIET FOR
THE NEXT DAY OR SO. A WEAK UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CURRENTLY OFF THE
COAST OF CALIFORNIA WHILE A MUCH STRONGER CLOSED LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WEST OF BRITISH COLUMBIA, CANADA. LOOK FOR DRY AND
RELATIVELY CLOUD FREE CONDITIONS TONIGHT WITH COOL OVERNIGHT LOWS
IN THE 30S.
THE AFOREMENTIONED STRONGER TROUGH WEST OF BRITISH COLUMBIA WILL
SHIFT SOUTHWARD ON WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT, TAKING UP A
POSITION WEST OF THE WASHINGTON/OREGON COAST. THE WEATHER WILL
CONTINUE TO REMAIN DRY AND SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY SUNNY. WINDS WILL
BE BREEZY TO LOCALLY WINDY WITH SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS 10 TO
20 MPH WITH GUSTS 25 TO 30 MPH. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 70S FOR THE
MOST PART. WINDS WILL DIMINISH DURING THE OVERNIGHT WITH LOWS IN
THE 30S AND 40S.
THE UPPER LOW WILL REMAIN SOMEWHAT STATIONARY OFF THE OREGON COAST
THURSDAY. SKIES WILL BE PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY THOUGH MOISTURE
FROM THE SOUTH WILL BE IN THE INCREASE. WINDS WILL ALSO BE ON THE
STRONG SIDE, ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE CENTRAL PARTS OF THE FORECAST
AREA. SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL BE WINDY IN CENTRAL NEVADA
WITH SPEEDS OF 20 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 45 MPH. A WIND ADVISORY
MAY BE NEEDED FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHERN NYE, WHITE PINE, AND
SOUTHERN LANDER/EUREKA COUNTIES. WINDS WILL BE MUCH LESS IN THE
NORTH WITH GUSTS TO 20 TO 25 MPH. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 70S FOR THE
MOST PART. SOME LIGHT SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL
DEVELOP IN THE EVENING THOUGH PROBABILITIES WILL BE LESS THAN
FIFTEEN PERCENT AND LITTLE TO NO RAINFALL IS EXPECTED FOR THURSDAY
NIGHT. LOWS WILL BE IN THE 40S TO POSSIBLY NEAR 50 DEGREES.
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY, THE UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS
FORECAST TO OPEN AND SHIFT EASTWARD ACROSS NORTHERN AND CENTRAL
NEVADA. THE PROBABILITY FOR PRECIPITATION WILL BE ABOUT TWENTY TO
FORTY PERCENT ON FRIDAY WITH LIGHTER AMOUNTS FORECAST DURING THE
OVERNIGHT WHEN COMPARED TO PREVIOUS FORECASTS. WINDS WILL BE
BREEZY ONCE AGAIN THOUGH SPEEDS WILL BE LESS THAN THURSDAY WITH
GUSTS TO 30 MPH. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 70S ONCE AGAIN. LOOK FOR LOWS
IN THE 40S. BY SATURDAY, A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PUSH THROUGH
WITH WINDS SHIFTING TO THE NORTHWEST EARLY MORNING WITH SOME GUSTS
TO 20 MPH. AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL TURN MUCH COOLER WITH READINGS IN
THE 50S AND 60S. THE SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH SATURDAY NIGHT WITH
LOWS IN THE 20S AND 30S.
SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY, UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
EACH DAY WITH PERIODS OF ISOLATED SHOWERS AND LITTLE TO NO
ACCUMULATION. HIGHS WILL REMAIN IN THE 50S AND 60S WITH LOWS IN
THE 20S AND 30S.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS: CONFIDENCE REMAINS HIGH IN DRY
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE WEEK WITH INCREASING LIKELIHOOD OF STRONG
WINDS ON THURSDAY. MINOR CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE NBM FORECAST TO
INCREASE WIND SPEEDS AND GUSTS FOR THURSDAY.
AVIATION
LOOK FOR VFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE 24-HOUR TAF
FORECAST ACROSS ALL TERMINALS. WINDS WILL BE LOCALLY BREEZY TO
WINDY, ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE CENTRAL TERMINALS. S-SW10-20G30-35KT
WILL DEVELOP AFTER 18Z WEDNESDAY. AMD NOT SKED FOR KTPH DUE TO
LONG TERM LOSS OF ASOS OBSERVATIONS.
FIRE WEATHER
LIMITED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS. MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL REMAIN OVER FIFTEEN
PERCENT IN MANY AREAS THROUGH THIS WEEK WHILE AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES WARM INTO THE 70S BY MID-WEEK. CONFIDENCE IS
INCREASING IN STRONG WINDS FOR ALL LOCATIONS WEDNESDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY. SOUTHWEST TO SOUTH WIND SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE
10 TO 20 MPH RANGE WITH GUSTS TO 35 MPH IN MOST LOCATIONS.
HOWEVER, IN CENTRAL NEVADA ON THURSDAY, WIND SPEED FORECASTS HAVE
COME UP; LOCATIONS THERE COULD SEE GUSTS TO 45 MPH (PROBABILITIES
ARE AROUND FORTY TO SEVENTY PERCENT) DURING THE AFTERNOON.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES INCREASE ON FRIDAY THROUGH THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND AS ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH AND SURFACE FRONTAL SYSTEM LOOK TO
TRAVEL ACROSS NEVADA THROUGH THIS TIME. TEMPERATURES WILL COOL
INTO THE 50S AND 60S BY SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WITH UNSETTLED
WEATHER EXPECTED.
LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...86
AVIATION...99
FIRE WEATHER...86
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