831
FXUS65 KLKN 091706
AFDLKN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
1006 AM PDT THU OCT 9 2025
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1005 AM PDT THU OCT 9 2025
* WARMING TREND CONTINUES THROUGH THE WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES
TOPPING OUT IN THE 70S.
* GUSTY SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS IN CENTRAL NEVADA THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY AFTERNOONS.
* PRECIPITATION CHANCES RETURN TO THE FORECAST FRIDAY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.
UPDATE AVIATION
ISSUED AT 1005 AM PDT THU OCT 9 2025
ADDED REMARK "AMD NOT SKED" TO 18Z KTPH DUE TO COMMUNICATIONS
ERROR.
DISCUSSION
(TODAY THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY)
WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW: SATELLITE IMAGERY IS CURRENTLY SHOWING
MAINLY SUNNY SKIES ACROSS NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NEVADA THIS
AFTERNOON. WINDS ARE GENERALLY LIGHT IN THE NORTH THOUGH WINDS ARE
BREEZY ACROSS THE CENTRAL ZONES. LOOK FOR DRY AND QUIET CONDITIONS
DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD WITH LOWS IN THE 30S AND 40S.
FOR THURSDAY, A STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DIVE
SOUTHWARD FROM BRITISH COLUMBIA, CANADA, AND WILL BE WEST OF
OREGON BY THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS. STRONG WINDS WILL DEVELOP
ACROSS CENTRAL NEVADA WITH 700 MB WINDS OF 35 TO 40 KNOTS. NBM
WIND GUST PROBABILITY OF GUSTS GREATER THAN 45 MPH IN CENTRAL
NEVADA WILL BE BETWEEN FORTY AND SEVENTY-FIVE PERCENT. AS A
RESULT, HAVE ISSUED A WIND ADVISORY FOR THE CENTRAL ZONES FROM
11AM TO 8PM THURSDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE 70S.
LIMITED MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTH WILL MOVE NORTH DURING THE LATTER
PORTIONS OF THE AFTERNOON AND BRING ISOLATED SHOWERS TO PORTIONS
OF NORTHEAST AND EASTERN WHITE PINE COUNTY. ACCUMULATIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN VERY LIGHT. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE 40S.
ON FRIDAY, THE UPPER LOW IS NOT EXPECTED TO MAKE MUCH PROGRESS
EASTWARD, REMAINING OFFSHORE WEST OF OREGON. LIGHT, ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP MAINLY ACROSS EAST-
CENTRAL AND EASTERN NEVADA. AGAIN, NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY
OF RAINFALL WITH MANY AREAS SEEING UP TO FIVE HUNDREDTHS OF AN
INCH. HIGHS FRIDAY WILL AGAIN BE IN THE 70S WITH BREEZY TO LOCALLY
WINDY CONDITIONS WITH THE STRONGEST WIND GUSTS TO 35 MPH FELT IN
CENTRAL NEVADA. ACROSS NORTHERN NEVADA, GUSTS WILL BE AROUND 25 TO
30 MPH. MODELS ARE SHOWING THE UPPER LOW MOVING EASTWARD, COMING
ASHORE INTO OREGON ON SATURDAY MORNING. THE LOWS DURING THE
OVERNIGHT WILL BE IN THE 40S. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE TO BE MORE ISOLATED DURING THIS TIME FRAME.
BY SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT, THE UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE ITS
EASTWARD TREK ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT BASIN. ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL AGAIN DEVELOP DURING THE DAY. ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN LIMITED ACROSS EASTERN
NEVADA. WINDS WILL REMAIN BREEZY OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST AND WEST,
THOUGH A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO SHIFT THROUGH THE AREA.
AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL TURN MUCH COOLER WITH READINGS IN THE 50S AND
60S. BEST CHANCES FOR ACCUMULATING RAINFALL WILL BE EAST OF A
WILDHORSE TO EUREKA LINE WITH ABOUT ONE TO TWO TENTHS OF AN INCH
EXPECTED. THE SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH SATURDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS IN
THE 20S AND 30S.
COOL TEMPERATURES WILL PERSIST SUNDAY AS ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL LOW
PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO PUSH INTO THE WESTERN UNITED STATES. THIS
WILL LEAD TO COOL CONDITIONS OVER NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NEVADA FROM
SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S AND 60S AND LOWS IN
THE 20S AND 30S.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS: NO MAJOR CHANGES HAVE BEEN MADE
TO THE CURRENT NBM FORECAST.
AVIATION
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL NEVADA TERMINALS THROUGH AT LEAST THE NEXT 24 HOURS. SOUTH
WIND GUSTS NEAR 30 KNOTS ARE ANTICIPATED AT KELY INTO THURSDAY
MORNING. SOUTH WIND GUSTS SHOULD INCREASE TO NEAR 30 KNOTS AT KELY
THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
FIRE WEATHER
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS REMAIN LIMITED WITH BREEZY
TO WINDY CONDITIONS EACH AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY. MINIMUM
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL REMAIN OVER FIFTEEN PERCENT IN MANY
AREAS THROUGH THIS WEEK WHILE AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES CONTINUE INTO
THE 70S THROUGH FRIDAY. FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY, SOUTHWEST TO
SOUTH WIND SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 10 TO 20 MPH RANGE
WITH GUSTS TO 35 MPH IN MOST LOCATIONS. HOWEVER, IN CENTRAL NEVADA
ON THURSDAY, WIND SPEED FORECASTS HAVE COME UP; LOCATIONS THERE
WILL SEE GUSTS 45 TO 50 MPH (PROBABILITIES ARE AROUND FORTY TO
SEVENTY-FIVE PERCENT) DURING THE AFTERNOON. PRECIPITATION CHANCES
INCREASE ON FRIDAY THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND AS ANOTHER UPPER
TROUGH AND SURFACE FRONTAL SYSTEM LOOK TO TRAVEL ACROSS NEVADA
THROUGH THIS TIME. TEMPERATURES WILL COOL INTO THE 50S AND 60S BY
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WITH UNSETTLED WEATHER EXPECTED.
LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM PDT THIS EVENING NVZ035-037-040-041.
DISCUSSION...86
AVIATION...87
FIRE WEATHER...84
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page