914
FXUS65 KLKN 091931
AFDLKN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
1231 PM PDT THU OCT 9 2025
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1231 PM PDT THU OCT 9 2025
* STRONG, GUSTY SOUTH WINDS IN CENTRAL NEVADA THIS AFTERNOON INTO
THIS EVENING
* A FEW STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED IN EASTERN NEVADA FRIDAY
AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY EVENING
* PRECIPITATION CHANCES INCREASE SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT AS A
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE PASSES ACROSS NORTHERN NEVADA
* MUCH COOLER THIS WEEKEND
DISCUSSION
(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW: A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
NORTHWARD ACROSS THE ROCKY MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON. A WIND
ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR CENTRAL NEVADA UNTIL 8 PM PDT THIS
EVENING DUE TO SOUTH WIND GUSTS NEAR 50 MPH. AN UPPER-LEVEL AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE WILL REMAIN JUST OFFSHORE OF OREGON FRIDAY.
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE ANTICIPATED IN EASTERN NEVADA FRIDAY
AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY EVENING. A FEW OF THESE THUNDERSTORMS
COULD BE STRONG. THE PRIMARY THUNDERSTORM HAZARDS WILL BE WIND
GUSTS NEAR 45 MPH, LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL, DANGEROUS CLOUD TO
GROUND LIGHTNING STRIKES, AND SMALL HAIL.
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS EASTWARD ACROSS NORTHERN NEVADA
SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT, RESULTING IN ELEVATED PRECIPITATION
CHANCES. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL BE HIGHEST OVER EASTERN
NEVADA. THE MAJORITY OF PRECIPITATION WILL FALL SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. SNOW LEVELS WILL START AT AROUND 10,000 FEET SATURDAY
MORNING, BEFORE DROPPING TO ABOUT 6,000 FEET SATURDAY NIGHT. HERE
ARE PROBABILITIES OF ONE TENTH OF AN INCH OF RAIN OR MORE FOR
LOCATIONS IN NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NEVADA FROM 5 AM PDT SATURDAY,
OCTOBER 11TH, 2025 UNTIL 5 AM PDT SUNDAY, OCTOBER 12TH, 2025:
RUBY VALLEY - 66%
EUREKA - 63%
ELY - 61%
WELLS - 61%
LAMOILLE - 56%
WEST WENDOVER - 55%
JACKPOT - 54%
JARBIDGE - 53%
SPRING CREEK - 47%
ELKO - 41%
A COOLING TREND IS EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND. HIGH TEMPERATURES
SATURDAY AFTERNOON WILL BE AROUND FIFTEEN DEGREES COOLER THAN
FRIDAY AFTERNOON. MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES SUNDAY AFTERNOON WILL BE
ABOUT TEN DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. SUB-FREEZING
TEMPERATURES ARE ANTICIPATED IN THE VALLEYS OF NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL NEVADA BOTH SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY NIGHT. A CYCLONE
ALOFT WILL MOVE SOUTHWARD, JUST OFF THE WEST COAST OF THE UNITED
STATES MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. THIS UPPER-LEVEL AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL TURN EASTWARD AND MAKE LANDFALL OVER CENTRAL
CALIFORNIA TUESDAY. THE CYCLONE ALOFT WILL OPEN UP INTO A TROUGH
OF LOW PRESSURE AS IT PASSES ACROSS NEVADA TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS
ATMOSPHERIC DISTURBANCE WILL BE RESPONSIBLE FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF
VALLEY RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS: HIGH FORECAST CONFIDENCE
REGARDING STRONG, GUSTY SOUTH WINDS IN CENTRAL NEVADA THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. MODERATE FORECAST CONFIDENCE IN THE
POSSIBILITY OF A FEW STRONG THUNDERSTORMS IN EASTERN NEVADA FRIDAY
AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY EVENING. HIGH FORECAST CONFIDENCE REGARDING
ELEVATED PRECIPITATION CHANCES SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. HIGH
FORECAST CONFIDENCE IN MUCH COOLER WEATHER THIS WEEKEND. NO
DEVIATIONS FROM THE NBM MODEL OUTPUT.
AVIATION
LOOK FOR VFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE ACROSS ALL TERMINALS THROUGH
THE NEXT 24 HOURS. SOUTHERLY WIND GUSTS TO 35 TO 40 KNOTS CAN BE
EXPECTED AT KTPH AND KELY THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING. INCREASING
CLOUDS WILL BE THE RULE TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW, WITH VCTS DURING
THE LATE MORNING HOURS AT KELY. WINDS WILL AGAIN DEVELOP DURING
THE AFTERNOON SW10-20G30-35KT AT ALL TERMINALS EXCEPT KENV.
FIRE WEATHER
DRY AND WINDY IN CENTRAL NEVADA THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING.
BE THAT AS IT MAY, FUELS ARE NOT CRITICAL AT THIS TIME. A FEW
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE IN EASTERN NEVADA FRIDAY
AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY EVENING. PERIODS OF PRECIPITATION ARE LIKELY
IN EASTERN NEVADA SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT AS AN ATMOSPHERIC
DISTURBANCE PASSES EASTWARD ACROSS NORTHERN NEVADA.
LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM PDT THIS EVENING NVZ035-037-040-041.
DISCUSSION...87
AVIATION...86
FIRE WEATHER...87
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