401
FXUS65 KLKN 100848
AFDLKN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
148 AM PDT FRI OCT 10 2025
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 144 AM PDT FRI OCT 10 2025
* A FEW STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED IN EASTERN NEVADA FRIDAY
AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY EVENING
* PRECIPITATION CHANCES INCREASE SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT AS A
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE PASSES ACROSS NORTHERN NEVADA
* MUCH COOLER THIS WEEKEND
DISCUSSION
(TODAY THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY)
WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW: AN UPPER-LEVEL AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
WILL REMAIN JUST OFFSHORE OF OREGON FRIDAY. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
ARE ANTICIPATED IN EASTERN NEVADA FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY
EVENING. A FEW OF THESE THUNDERSTORMS COULD BE STRONG. THE PRIMARY
THUNDERSTORM HAZARDS WILL BE WIND GUSTS NEAR 45 MPH, LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL, DANGEROUS CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING STRIKES, AND
SMALL HAIL.
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS EASTWARD ACROSS NORTHERN NEVADA
SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT, RESULTING IN ELEVATED PRECIPITATION
CHANCES. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL BE HIGHEST OVER EASTERN
NEVADA. THE MAJORITY OF PRECIPITATION WILL FALL SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. SNOW LEVELS WILL START AT AROUND 10,000 FEET SATURDAY
MORNING, BEFORE DROPPING TO ABOUT 6,000 FEET SATURDAY NIGHT. HERE
ARE PROBABILITIES OF ONE TENTH OF AN INCH OF RAIN OR MORE FOR
LOCATIONS IN NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NEVADA FROM 5 AM PDT SATURDAY,
OCTOBER 11TH, 2025 UNTIL 5 AM PDT SUNDAY, OCTOBER 12TH, 2025:
RUBY VALLEY - 66%
EUREKA - 63%
ELY - 61%
WELLS - 61%
LAMOILLE - 56%
WEST WENDOVER - 55%
JACKPOT - 54%
JARBIDGE - 53%
SPRING CREEK - 47%
ELKO - 41%
A COOLING TREND IS EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND. HIGH TEMPERATURES
SATURDAY AFTERNOON WILL BE AROUND FIFTEEN DEGREES COOLER THAN
FRIDAY AFTERNOON. MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES SUNDAY AFTERNOON WILL BE
ABOUT TEN DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. SUB-FREEZING
TEMPERATURES ARE ANTICIPATED IN THE VALLEYS OF NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL NEVADA BOTH SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY NIGHT. A CYCLONE
ALOFT WILL MOVE SOUTHWARD, JUST OFF THE WEST COAST OF THE UNITED
STATES MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. THIS UPPER-LEVEL AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL TURN EASTWARD AND MAKE LANDFALL OVER CENTRAL
CALIFORNIA TUESDAY. THE CYCLONE ALOFT WILL OPEN UP INTO A TROUGH
OF LOW PRESSURE AS IT PASSES ACROSS NEVADA TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS
ATMOSPHERIC DISTURBANCE WILL BE RESPONSIBLE FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF
VALLEY RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS: MODERATE FORECAST CONFIDENCE IN
THE POSSIBILITY OF A FEW STRONG THUNDERSTORMS IN EASTERN NEVADA
FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY EVENING. HIGH FORECAST CONFIDENCE
REGARDING ELEVATED PRECIPITATION CHANCES SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY
NIGHT. HIGH FORECAST CONFIDENCE IN MUCH COOLER WEATHER THIS
WEEKEND. NO DEVIATIONS FROM THE NBM MODEL OUTPUT.
AVIATION
LOOK FOR VFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE ACROSS ALL TERMINALS THROUGH
THE NEXT 24 HOURS. INCREASING CLOUDS WILL BE THE RULE FRIDAY,
WITH VCTS DURING THE LATE MORNING HOURS AT KELY. WINDS WILL AGAIN
DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON SW10-20G30-35KT AT ALL TERMINALS
EXCEPT KENV.
FIRE WEATHER
A FEW STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE IN
EASTERN NEVADA FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY EVENING. PERIODS OF
PRECIPITATION ARE LIKELY IN EASTERN NEVADA SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY
NIGHT AS AN ATMOSPHERIC DISTURBANCE PASSES EASTWARD ACROSS
NORTHERN NEVADA.
LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...87
AVIATION...86
FIRE WEATHER...87
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