042
FXUS65 KLKN 202039
AFDLKN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
139 PM PDT MON OCT 20 2025
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1230 PM PDT MON OCT 20 2025
* ISOLATED TO SCATTERED (FIFTEEN TO FORTY PERCENT CHANCE) SHOWERS
IN CENTRAL NEVADA ON WEDNESDAY
* CONFIDENCE CONTINUES TO INCREASE IN A WET STORM SYSTEM
DEVELOPING FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND
DISCUSSION
(THIS EVENING THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY)
WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW: TRANQUIL WEATHER CONTINUES TONIGHT INTO
TUESDAY WITH A SLIGHT WARMUP TUESDAY AFTERNOON TO NEAR NORMAL
TEMPERATURES THANKS TO A SHIFT FROM NORTHWESTERLY TO ZONAL FLOW IN
THE GENERAL PATTERN. TUESDAY NIGHT AN LPC OFF THE CA COAST MOVES
ASHORE AND PUSHES INTO SOUTHERN NV BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE BULK
OF ENERGY WITH THIS SYSTEM STAYS TO THE SOUTH OF THE CWA BUT
SOUTHERLY FLOW IN THE EASTERN FLANK WILL PUSH ENOUGH MOISTURE
(0.5-0.6 PW OVER NYE/WHITE PINE COUNTIES) AND VORTICITY INTO
CENTRAL NV TO INITIATE SHOWER ACTIVITY WEDNESDAY PM. QPF HAS
BACKED OFF ON RAINFALL AMOUNTS FROM ECMWF MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS
0.05-0.15 OVER NORTHERN NYE BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
THE MAIN FEATURE OF THE LONG TERM FORECAST CONTINUES TO BE THE
LARGE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SET TO BRING SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION TO
THE GREAT BASIN AND WESTERN CONUS IN GENERAL. THIS IS CONSIDERED
TO BE AN AR EVENT SO MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM WILL BE
PLENTIFUL. SOME DISAGREEMENT STILL EXISTS IN TIMING OF
PRECIPITATION FOR NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NV. GFS BRINGS SHOWER
ACTIVITY INTO NORTHERN NV EARLIER SATURDAY EVENING AND HOLDS
ACTIVITY OVER THE REGION THROUGH MIDDAY SUNDAY. ECMWF GUIDANCE,
HOWEVER, IS ABOUT 6 HOURS SLOWER AND CONFINES THE BULK OF
PRECIPITATION TO OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING ON SUNDAY. BECAUSE OF
THIS LATER PASSAGE AND TIMING OF SHOWER ACTIVITY ECMWF IS
SUGGESTING A CHANGEOVER TO SNOW FOR LOWER ELEVATIONS. SNOW LEVEL
GRIDS TO NOT MATCH UP WITH EURO PROGNOSIS BUT IF EURO IS CORRECT
PRECIPITATION TYPE AND PRECIPITATION ACCUMULATION FORECASTS
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY WILL BE TRICKY. FUTURE FORECASTS WILL
NEED TO MONITOR THE TIMING IMPLICATIONS AS MODEL RUNS PROGRESS.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS: HIGH CONFIDENCE IN SOME LIGHT
SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER CENTRAL NV ON WEDNESDAY. NBM HAS FINALLY
SYNCED UP WITH MODEL GUIDANCE ON SPATIAL COVERAGE OF SHOWERS
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WPC QPF HAS DIMINISHED WHAT
WAS ALREADY A LACKLUSTER OUTPUT BY SHOWERS OVER NYE AND WHITE PINE
COUNTIES. CONFIDENCE CONTINUES TO GROW ON A STRONG STORM SYSTEM
RETURNING PRECIPITATION TO THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA THIS
WEEKEND.
AVIATION
VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED AT ALL SITES
EXCEPT KWMC WHERE GUSTS UP TO 20KT ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. NO WEATHER OR VISIBILITY CONCERNS EXPECTED.
FIRE WEATHER
NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS IN THE CURRENT FORECAST.
THE TRANSITION TOWARD WINTER IS CONTINUING TO PREVENT WIND AND
MINIMUM RH FROM REACHING CRITICAL THRESHOLDS. LIGHT SHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE IN CENTRAL NEVADA ON WEDNESDAY, OTHERWISE EXPECT TO
REMAIN DRY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...99
AVIATION...94
FIRE WEATHER...94
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