964
FXUS65 KLKN 220904
AFDLKN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
204 AM PDT WED OCT 22 2025
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 153 AM PDT WED OCT 22 2025
* ISOLATED TO SCATTERED (FIFTEEN TO FORTY PERCENT CHANCE) SHOWERS
IN CENTRAL NEVADA THIS AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY MORNING
* CONFIDENCE CONTINUES TO INCREASE IN A WET STORM SYSTEM
DEVELOPING FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 153 AM PDT WED OCT 22 2025
FORECAST CONTINUES ON TRACK FOR TODAY THROUGH TOMORROW. NO CHANGES
ARE REQUIRED FOR THIS PACKAGE.
DISCUSSION
(THIS EVENING THROUGH NEXT MONDAY)
WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW: A LOW PRESSURE CENTER OFF THE CA COAST
BEGINS ITS PASSAGE OVER THE CONTINENTAL USA, STARTING ITS JOURNEY
BY MOVING NORTH AND EAST INTO NEVADA FOR WEDNESDAY. SOUTHERLY FLOW
ON THE EAST SIDE OF THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO PUSH UPPER LEVEL
MOISTURE ALONG WITH IT, TRIGGERING SHOWERS IN CENTRAL NEVADA AND
CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. DESPITE THE MOISTURE SURGE
ACCUMULATIONS STILL LOOK VERY MINIMAL, WITH 0.05-0.15 POSSIBLE AT
LOW ELEVATIONS AND A FEW MOUNTAIN PEAKS IN NORTHWESTERN NYE
RECEIVING 0.3-0.4 BEFORE THE SYSTEM MOVES OUT EARLY THURSDAY
MORNING.
THE BIGGER STORY OF THE FORECAST CONTINUES TO BE THE INCOMING
STRONG TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED ATMOSPHERIC RIVER EVENT HEADED TOWARD
THE WEST COAST. THE BULK OF THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO IMPACT
NEVADA OVER THE WEEKEND, HOWEVER SOME DISAGREEMENT STILL EXISTS
IN REGARDS TO THE TIMING. THE FIRST EXPECTED IMPACT WILL BE FELT
ON FRIDAY AS BREEZY WINDS BEGIN TO KICK UP AHEAD OF THE TROUGH DUE
TO THE TIGHTENING UPPER LEVEL PRESSURE GRADIENT. PRECIPITATION
LOOKS TO BEGIN SATURDAY, ALTHOUGH THIS IS WHERE THE BULK OF THE
UNCERTAINTY STILL SITS. THE FASTER SOLUTION BEGINS PRECIPITATION
LATE MORNING THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON, WHILE THE SLOWER SOLUTION
BEGINS LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. THIS IS NOT EXPECTED TO
IMPACT TOTAL ACCUMULATION BUT IT WILL SIGNIFICANTLY AFFECT
PRECIPITATION TYPE AS THE SLOWER SOLUTION ALSO EXPECTS MUCH LOWER
SNOW LEVELS AND EVEN INCLUDES SOME VALLEY SNOW. THE CURRENT
FORECAST REFLECTS THE FASTER SOLUTION AS IT IS SLIGHTLY FAVORED AT
THIS TIME BUT DEVELOPMENTS WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED CLOSELY.
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN LIMITED TO NORTHERN NEVADA AT
THIS TIME. THIS SYSTEM WILL ALSO BRING COLD CONDITIONS ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA, WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 40S AND LOW
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE AREA DROPPING INTO THE LOW
TO MID 20S BY SUNDAY NIGHT. DRY CONDITIONS RETURN TO THE ENTIRE
FORECAST AREA BY LATE MONDAY NIGHT, LEAVING COOL AND CALM
CONDITIONS.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS: HIGH CONFIDENCE IN SCATTERED
SHOWERS IN CENTRAL NEVADA TOMORROW. CONFIDENCE CONTINUES TO
INCREASE IN THIS WEEKEND’S STORM SYSTEM AND ITS PRECIPITATION BUT
QUESTIONS STILL REMAIN REGARDING TIMING AND PRECIPITATION TYPE.
AVIATION
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL TAF TERMINALS TODAY
AND TONIGHT. THERE WILL HOWEVER BE INCREASING CLOUDS TODAY WITH A
20% CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS AT KTPH, AND A 30% CHANCE AT
KELY. ANY RAINFALL WOULD LIKELY BE LESS THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH.
FIRE WEATHER
NO SIGNIFICANT FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS FOR THE NEXT
FEW DAYS. LIGHT SHOWERS ARE FORECAST ACROSS CENTRAL NEVADA ON
WEDNESDAY, IMPACTING ZONES 426, 427, AND 425. A STRAY LIGHTNING
STRIKE OR TWO CANT BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT, BUT SIGNIFICANT
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL NOT BE PRESENT. WETTING RAIN IS LIKELY
ACROSS THE HIGH TERRAIN THOUGH ACCUMULATION ACROSS THE VALLEYS
LOOKS TO REMAIN LESS THAN 0.10 INCHES. OTHERWISE THE NEXT
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EVENT WILL BE THIS WEEKEND AS A ROBUST COLD
FRONT MOVES INTO THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST. GUSTY WINDS
CAN BE EXPECTED, IMPACTING ZONE 437 AS EARLY AS FRIDAY, AS THE
FRONT ENCROACHES. GUSTY CONDITIONS WILL BE WIDESPREAD SATURDAY
WITH SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS SHIFTING NORTHWESTERLY BY SUNDAY. WETTING
RAIN AND SNOW EXPECTED ACROSS NORTHERN NEVADA, DRIER ACROSS
CENTRAL NEVADA WHERE ANY ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN LESS
THAN 0.10 INCHES AT THIS TIME.
LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...96
AVIATION...96
FIRE WEATHER...96
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