635
FXUS65 KLKN 222110
AFDLKN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
210 PM PDT WED OCT 22 2025
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 109 PM PDT WED OCT 22 2025
* ISOLATED TO SCATTERED (FIFTEEN TO FORTY PERCENT CHANCE) SHOWERS
IN CENTRAL NEVADA THIS AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY MORNING
* BREEZY WINDS FRIDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM
* ATMOSPHERIC RIVER EVENT EXPECTED TO IMPACT MAINLY NORTHERN
NEVADA THIS WEEKEND
DISCUSSION
(THIS EVENING THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY)
WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW: ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE ONGOING IN CENTRAL
NEVADA AND ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE EARLY OVERNIGHT
HOURS BEFORE CLEARING ENTIRELY BY MIDNIGHT. VERY LITTLE
ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED IN THAT TIME, MAXING OUT AT ABOUT 0.05 AT
LOW ELEVATIONS AND 0.15 FOR MOUNTAIN PEAKS. SEASONAL AND MOSTLY CALM
FOR THURSDAY, WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S
AND A FEW NORTHERLY BREEZES IN CENTRAL NEVADA, BEFORE OUR NEXT
SYSTEM BEGINS TO MAKE ITSELF KNOWN ON FRIDAY. THE BROADER DETAILS
OF THIS SYSTEM LOOK THE SAME AS THE PREVIOUS FEW FORECASTS, WITH
BREEZY WINDS AHEAD OF IT ON FRIDAY LEADING TO WET AND COLD
CONDITIONS FOR THE WEEKEND, HOWEVER RECENT MODEL RUNS HAVE
INCREASINGLY SHIFTED THE SYSTEM FURTHER NORTH. WHAT THIS MEANS
LOCALLY IS PRECIPITATION TOTALS HAVE DECREASED, WITH THE BULK OF
THE ACCUMULATION NORTH OF I-80 AND DROPPING TO ZERO IN CENTRAL
NEVADA. PRECIPITATION TIMING IS STILL MOSTLY FOLLOWING THE FASTER
SOLUTION OUTLINED YESTERDAY AND IS EXPECTED TO ENTER HUMBOLDT
COUNTY VERY EARLY SATURDAY MORNING AND SPREAD SOUTH AND EAST
THROUGHOUT THE DAY, REACHING ITS MAXIMUM COVERAGE SUNDAY MORNING.
THE BULK OF THE ACCUMULATION LOOKS TO OCCUR SATURDAY EVENING
THROUGH THE EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS, BUT PRECIPITATION CHANCES
LINGER IN NORTHERN NEVADA THROUGH MONDAY BEFORE FINALLY CLEARING.
THE MODEL SHIFT TO THE NORTH HAS ALSO CAUSED TEMPERATURES TO
INCREASE A FEW DEGREES. TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE MUCH COOLER
THAN NORMAL, WITH HIGHS IN THE 40S TO LOW 50S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS
STILL DROPPING INTO THE 20S, BUT MONDAY NIGHT IS NOW THE COLDEST
IN THE FORECAST AND LOWS ARE NOW EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE ABOUT 25
DEGREES, EXCEPT FOR SOME OF THE COLDEST VALLEYS. QUIETER
CONDITIONS LOOK TO RETURN FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY, WITH DRY
WEATHER AND TEMPERATURES SLOWLY RETURNING TO MORE SEASONAL RANGES
(UPPER 50S).
FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS: VERY HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE
BROADER DETAILS OF THIS WEEKEND’S SYSTEM, AS OUTLINED ABOVE,
HOWEVER PRECISE DETAILS OF THE PRECIPITATION STILL ONLY HAVE
MODERATE CONFIDENCE. THIS IS BECAUSE THERE ARE STILL SOME MODEL
RUNS SUGGESTING A MUCH WETTER SYSTEM THAT WOULD BRING NOTICEABLE
PRECIPITATION FURTHER SOUTH INTO CENTRAL NEVADA. THIS SOLUTION IS
NOT CURRENTLY FAVORED AND HAS A LOW PROBABILITY OF OCCURRENCE BUT
THE FACT THAT IT STILL PERSISTS MEANS IT’S WORTH WATCHING.
AVIATION
THE LOW PRESSURE CENTER TRAVELING TO THE SOUTH HAS
TRIGGERED CLOUDY SKIES AT ALL SITES, ALTHOUGH NO CEILINGS BELOW
VFR CRITERIA AREA EXPECTED. SHOWERS HAVE ALSO BEEN ONGOING IN THE
VICINITY OF KELY AND KTPH AND ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
INTERMITTENTLY THROUGH THE LATE EVENING HOURS. ALL OTHER SITES ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN DRY. NO WIND OR VISIBILITY CONCERNS AT THIS
TIME.
FIRE WEATHER
QUIET WEATHER THURSDAY ASIDE FOR NORTHERLY
BREEZES ACROSS CENTRAL NEVADA. GUSTS LOOK TO RESIDE AROUND 20 MPH.
WINDS SHIFT SOUTHERLY FRIDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER EVENT. GUSTY CONDITIONS BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON IN AND NEAR
ZONE 437 AS A ROBUST COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE FORECAST AREA.
FRONT MOVES IN FROM THE NORTHWEST SATURDAY, PRODUCING WIDESPREAD
GUSTY WINDS ON SATURDAY WITH SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS SHIFTING
NORTHWESTERLY BY SUNDAY. WETTING RAIN AND SNOW EXPECTED ACROSS
NORTHERN NEVADA, DRIER ACROSS CENTRAL NEVADA WHERE LITTLE TO NO
ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME, INCLUDING ZONES 426, 425,
427. LINGERING LIGHT SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHERN NEVADA AND BREEZES ON
MONDAY, WITH FAIR WEATHER EXPECTED BY TUESDAY.
LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...94
AVIATION...94
FIRE WEATHER...92
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