480
FXUS65 KLKN 230951
AFDLKN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
251 AM PDT THU OCT 23 2025
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 235 AM PDT THU OCT 23 2025
* DRY TODAY AND FRIDAY WITH NEAR-NORMAL TEMPERATURES
* SHOWERS ACROSS MAINLY NORTHERN NEVADA THIS WEEKEND
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 235 AM PDT THU OCT 23 2025
FORECAST CONTINUES ON TRACK FOR TODAY THROUGH TOMORROW. NO CHANGES
ARE REQUIRED FOR THIS PACKAGE.
DISCUSSION
(THIS EVENING THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY)
WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW: SEASONAL TEMPERATURES TODAY WITH HIGHS
IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S. A FEW NORTHERLY BREEZES IN CENTRAL
NEVADA THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE OUR NEXT SYSTEM BEGINS TO MAKE
ITSELF KNOWN ON FRIDAY. THE BROADER DETAILS OF THIS SYSTEM LOOK
THE SAME AS THE PREVIOUS FEW FORECASTS, WITH BREEZY WINDS AHEAD OF
IT ON FRIDAY LEADING TO WET AND COLD CONDITIONS FOR THE WEEKEND,
HOWEVER RECENT MODEL RUNS HAVE INCREASINGLY SHIFTED THE SYSTEM
FURTHER NORTH. WHAT THIS MEANS LOCALLY IS PRECIPITATION TOTALS
HAVE DECREASED, WITH THE BULK OF THE ACCUMULATION NORTH OF I-80
AND DROPPING TO ZERO IN CENTRAL NEVADA. PRECIPITATION TIMING IS
STILL MOSTLY FOLLOWING THE FASTER SOLUTION OUTLINED YESTERDAY AND
IS EXPECTED TO ENTER HUMBOLDT COUNTY VERY EARLY SATURDAY MORNING
AND SPREAD SOUTH AND EAST THROUGHOUT THE DAY, REACHING ITS MAXIMUM
COVERAGE SUNDAY MORNING. THE BULK OF THE ACCUMULATION LOOKS TO
OCCUR SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH THE EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS, BUT
PRECIPITATION CHANCES LINGER IN NORTHERN NEVADA THROUGH MONDAY
BEFORE FINALLY CLEARING. THE MODEL SHIFT TO THE NORTH HAS ALSO
CAUSED TEMPERATURES TO INCREASE A FEW DEGREES. TEMPERATURES WILL
STILL BE MUCH COOLER THAN NORMAL, WITH HIGHS IN THE 40S TO LOW 50S
AND OVERNIGHT LOWS STILL DROPPING INTO THE 20S, BUT MONDAY NIGHT
IS NOW THE COLDEST IN THE FORECAST AND LOWS ARE NOW EXPECTED TO
REMAIN ABOVE ABOUT 25 DEGREES, EXCEPT FOR SOME OF THE COLDEST
VALLEYS. QUIETER CONDITIONS LOOK TO RETURN FOR TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY, WITH DRY WEATHER AND TEMPERATURES SLOWLY RETURNING TO
MORE SEASONAL RANGES (UPPER 50S).
FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS: VERY HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE
BROADER DETAILS OF THIS WEEKEND’S SYSTEM, AS OUTLINED ABOVE,
HOWEVER PRECISE DETAILS OF THE PRECIPITATION STILL ONLY HAVE
MODERATE CONFIDENCE. THIS IS BECAUSE THERE ARE STILL SOME MODEL
RUNS SUGGESTING A MUCH WETTER SYSTEM THAT WOULD BRING NOTICEABLE
PRECIPITATION FURTHER SOUTH INTO CENTRAL NEVADA. THIS SOLUTION IS
NOT CURRENTLY FAVORED AND HAS A LOW PROBABILITY OF OCCURRENCE BUT
THE FACT THAT IT STILL PERSISTS MEANS IT’S WORTH WATCHING.
AVIATION
VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL TAF TERMINALS OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS. DRY TODAY AND TONIGHT WITH LIGHT WINDS OF LESS THAN 10
KNOTS EXPECTED AT KWMC KBAM KEKO AND KENV. BREEZY CONDITIONS THIS
AFTERNOON AT KTPH AND KELY WHERE NORTHERLY WINDS OF 10-15KTS
GUSTING 20-25KTS ARE EXPECTED.
FIRE WEATHER
QUIET WEATHER TODAY ASIDE FOR NORTHERLY BREEZES
ACROSS CENTRAL NEVADA. GUSTS LOOK TO RESIDE AROUND 20 MPH. WINDS
SHIFT SOUTHERLY FRIDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
EVENT. GUSTY CONDITIONS BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON IN AND NEAR ZONE 437
AS A ROBUST COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE FORECAST AREA. FRONT MOVES
IN FROM THE NORTHWEST SATURDAY, PRODUCING WIDESPREAD GUSTY WINDS
ON SATURDAY WITH SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS SHIFTING NORTHWESTERLY BY
SUNDAY. WETTING RAIN AND SNOW EXPECTED ACROSS NORTHERN NEVADA,
DRIER ACROSS CENTRAL NEVADA WHERE LITTLE TO NO ACCUMULATION IS
EXPECTED AT THIS TIME, INCLUDING ZONES 426, 425, 427. LINGERING
LIGHT SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHERN NEVADA AND BREEZES ON MONDAY, WITH
FAIR WEATHER EXPECTED BY TUESDAY.
LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...96
AVIATION...96
FIRE WEATHER...96
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