274
FXUS65 KLKN 232209
AFDLKN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
309 PM PDT THU OCT 23 2025
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 232 PM PDT THU OCT 23 2025
* DRY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT WITH NEAR-NORMAL TEMPERATURES
* SHOWERS ACROSS MAINLY NORTHERN NEVADA THIS WEEKEND
* MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES FOR THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK
DISCUSSION
(THIS EVENING THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY)
WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW: CALM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT,
LEADING INTO PRIME SEASONAL CONDITIONS TOMORROW, WITH HIGHS IN
THE UPPER 60S TO VERY LOW 70S AND LIGHT WINDS. ENJOY IT WHILE IT
LASTS HOWEVER, AS AN ATMOSPHERIC RIVER BEGINS ITS LANDFALL ALONG
THE PACIFIC COAST. IMPACTS IN OUR COVERAGE AREA BEGIN SATURDAY IN
THE FORM OF PRECIPITATION IN NORTHERN NEVADA AND STRONG WINDS
ACROSS THE AREA, WITH GUSTS EXPECTED TO BE 35-40 MPH. A SURFACE
COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER SYSTEM WILL ALSO BEGIN ITS
PASSAGE ACROSS THE AREA. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO DROP INTO
THE 40S TO LOW 50S BEHIND THE FRONT AND INTO THE 20S OVERNIGHT
INTO SUNDAY. THAT SAID, SNOW LEVELS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE
6500 FEET AND VALLEY SNOW IS GENERALLY NOT EXPECTED, OUTSIDE OF
HIGH ELEVATION VALLEYS IN NORTHERN ELKO COUNTY. PRECIPITATION
TOTALS SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY HAVE COME UP SLIGHTLY IN CENTRAL
NEVADA TO A MAXIMUM OF 0.05 INCHES WHILE EXPECTED TOTALS HAVE
GENERALLY DECREASED IN NORTHERN NEVADA. MOUNTAIN PEAKS ARE STILL
EXPECTED TO SEE THE BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION, UP TO ABOUT 0.75
INCHES, BUT VALLEY LOCATIONS ARE NOW EXPECTED TO MAX OUT AROUND
0.15 INCHES. PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE IN NORTHERN
NEVADA THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON BUT THE BULK OF THE ACCUMULATION
WILL BE ON SUNDAY. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO BE IN THE 40S
AND 50S THROUGH MONDAY BEFORE WARMING INTO THE 50S FOR TUESDAY AND
50S AND 60S FOR WEDNESDAY. OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE DROPPING BELOW FREEZING ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA THROUGH
THE REST OF THE FORECAST. EXPECTED WEATHER CONDITIONS FOR TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY ARE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS: HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE
ATMOSPHERIC RIVER EVENT AND ITS IMPACTS ON OUR AREA. A WETTER
SCENARIO THAN THE ONE DETAILED IN THE CURRENT FORECAST STILL
EXISTS IN THE ECMWF ENSEMBLE BUT IT’S ONLY A FEW HUNDREDTHS WETTER
AT THIS POINT AND HAS NEARLY MERGED WITH THE NBM FORECAST. THERE
IS ALSO STRONG MODEL DIVERGENCE FOR THE PATH OF THE TROUGH
ASSOCIATED WITH THE AR EVENT AFTER IT REACHES THE ROCKY MOUNTAINS,
LEADING TO LOWER CONFIDENCE IN CONDITIONS OVER NEVADA FOR TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY. AT THIS TIME THERE IS MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN CALM
WEATHER AND LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE TEMPERATURE TRENDS
OUTLINED ABOVE.
AVIATION
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT ALL SITES THROUGH THE NEXT
24 HOURS. LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED AT THE FOUR NORTHERN SITES BUT KELY
AND KTPH CAN EXPECT GUSTS UP TO 25KT THROUGH 00Z.
FIRE WEATHER
ELEVATED SOUTHERLY WINDS FRIDAY IN AND NEAR FWZ
437 AS A ROBUST COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE
NORTHWEST. GUSTS 25 TO 30 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED. FRONT MOVES INTO
NEVADA EARLY SATURDAY MORNING, PRODUCING WIDESPREAD GUSTY WINDS
WITH SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS SHIFTING NORTHWESTERLY BY SUNDAY.
WETTING RAIN AND SNOW ARE EXPECTED ACROSS NORTHERN NEVADA AND
THUNDERSTORMS EMBEDDED ALONG THE COLD FRONT ARE NOT ANTICIPATED.
CONDITIONS REMAIN MOSTLY DRY ACROSS CENTRAL NEVADA AND LITTLE TO
NO PRECIPITATION ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME, THIS
INCLUDES ZONES 426, 425, 427. LINGERING LIGHT SHOWERS ACROSS
NORTHERN NEVADA ON MONDAY MORNING WITH BREEZES PRESENT ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA. WEATHER BECOMES FAIR BEGINNING TUESDAY, PERSISTING
THRU AT LEAST MID WEEK.
LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...94
AVIATION...94
FIRE WEATHER...92
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