074
FXUS65 KLKN 240921
AFDLKN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
221 AM PDT FRI OCT 24 2025
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 205 AM PDT FRI OCT 24 2025
* DRY TODAY AND TONIGHT WITH NEAR-NORMAL TEMPERATURES
* SHOWERS ACROSS MAINLY NORTHERN NEVADA THIS WEEKEND
* MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES FOR THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 205 AM PDT FRI OCT 24 2025
FORECAST CONTINUES ON TRACK FOR TODAY THROUGH TOMORROW. NO CHANGES
ARE REQUIRED FOR THIS PACKAGE.
DISCUSSION
(THIS EVENING THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY)
WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW: DRY TODAY WITH SEASONAL TEMPERATURES.
ENJOY IT WHILE IT LASTS HOWEVER, AS AN ATMOSPHERIC RIVER BEGINS
ITS LANDFALL ALONG THE PACIFIC COAST. IMPACTS IN OUR COVERAGE AREA
BEGIN SATURDAY IN THE FORM OF PRECIPITATION IN NORTHERN NEVADA
AND STRONG WINDS ACROSS THE AREA, WITH GUSTS EXPECTED TO BE 35-40
MPH. A SURFACE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER SYSTEM WILL
ALSO BEGIN ITS PASSAGE ACROSS THE AREA. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED
TO DROP INTO THE 40S TO LOW 50S BEHIND THE FRONT AND INTO THE 20S
OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY. THAT SAID, SNOW LEVELS ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN ABOVE 6500 FEET AND VALLEY SNOW IS GENERALLY NOT EXPECTED,
OUTSIDE OF HIGH ELEVATION VALLEYS IN NORTHERN ELKO COUNTY.
PRECIPITATION TOTALS SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY HAVE COME UP SLIGHTLY
IN CENTRAL NEVADA TO A MAXIMUM OF 0.05 INCHES WHILE EXPECTED
TOTALS HAVE GENERALLY DECREASED IN NORTHERN NEVADA. MOUNTAIN PEAKS
ARE STILL EXPECTED TO SEE THE BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION, UP TO
ABOUT 0.75 INCHES, BUT VALLEY LOCATIONS ARE NOW EXPECTED TO MAX
OUT AROUND 0.15 INCHES. PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE IN
NORTHERN NEVADA THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON BUT THE BULK OF THE
ACCUMULATION WILL BE ON SUNDAY. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO
BE IN THE 40S AND 50S THROUGH MONDAY BEFORE WARMING INTO THE 50S
FOR TUESDAY AND 50S AND 60S FOR WEDNESDAY. OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DROPPING BELOW FREEZING ACROSS MUCH OF
THE AREA THROUGH THE REST OF THE FORECAST. EXPECTED WEATHER
CONDITIONS FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY ARE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND
LIGHT WINDS.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS: HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE
ATMOSPHERIC RIVER EVENT AND ITS IMPACTS ON OUR AREA. A WETTER
SCENARIO THAN THE ONE DETAILED IN THE CURRENT FORECAST STILL
EXISTS IN THE ECMWF ENSEMBLE BUT IT’S ONLY A FEW HUNDREDTHS WETTER
AT THIS POINT AND HAS NEARLY MERGED WITH THE NBM FORECAST. THERE
IS ALSO STRONG MODEL DIVERGENCE FOR THE PATH OF THE TROUGH
ASSOCIATED WITH THE AR EVENT AFTER IT REACHES THE ROCKY MOUNTAINS,
LEADING TO LOWER CONFIDENCE IN CONDITIONS OVER NEVADA FOR TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY. AT THIS TIME THERE IS MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN CALM
WEATHER AND LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE TEMPERATURE TRENDS
OUTLINED ABOVE.
AVIATION
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH THE
NEXT 24 HOURS. MOSTLY SUNNY TODAY WITH WINDS AT OR BELOW 10 KNOTS.
CLOUDS MOVE IN ACROSS NORTHWEST NV LATER THIS EVENING, WITH
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AT KWMC BY SATURDAY 12Z.
FIRE WEATHER
ELEVATED SOUTHERLY WINDS FRIDAY IN AND NEAR FWZ
437 AS A ROBUST COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE
NORTHWEST. GUSTS 25 TO 30 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED. FRONT MOVES INTO
NEVADA EARLY SATURDAY MORNING, PRODUCING WIDESPREAD GUSTY WINDS
WITH SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS SHIFTING NORTHWESTERLY BY SUNDAY.
WETTING RAIN AND SNOW ARE EXPECTED ACROSS NORTHERN NEVADA AND
THUNDERSTORMS EMBEDDED ALONG THE COLD FRONT ARE NOT ANTICIPATED.
CONDITIONS REMAIN MOSTLY DRY ACROSS CENTRAL NEVADA AND LITTLE TO
NO PRECIPITATION ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME, THIS
INCLUDES ZONES 426, 425, 427. LINGERING LIGHT SHOWERS ACROSS
NORTHERN NEVADA ON MONDAY MORNING WITH BREEZES PRESENT ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA. WEATHER BECOMES FAIR BEGINNING TUESDAY, PERSISTING
THRU AT LEAST MID WEEK.
LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...96
AVIATION...96
FIRE WEATHER...96
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