966
FXUS65 KLKN 120910
AFDLKN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
110 AM PST WED NOV 12 2025
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 108 AM PST WED NOV 12 2025
* UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
* STRONG, GUSTY WINDS IN CENTRAL NEVADA THURSDAY
* A DRIER, WARMER WEATHER SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE STATE LATE THIS
WEEK ACCORDING TO LATEST MODEL RUNS
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 108 AM PST WED NOV 12 2025
NO CHANGES ARE PLANNED THIS MORNING AS FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK.
DISCUSSION
(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY)
WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW: AN INTERESTING CHANGE IN UPPER LEVEL
DYNAMICS HAS LED TO A CHANGING FORECAST LATER THIS WEEK. RIDGING
PRESENTLY OVER THE AREA HELPS TO KEEP TEMPERATURES UNSEASONABLY
WARM THREATENING SEVERAL LOCAL HIGH TEMPERATURES RECORDS TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY.
THE LATEST MODEL RUN HAS A LONG WAVE TROUGH WITH A
CLOSED LOW SET TO MOVE INTO THE WESTERN CONUS THURSDAY. AS THE
TROUGH PUSHES ASHORE THE CLOSED LPC WILL EJECT SOUTH-
SOUTHWESTWARD OFF THE SOCAL COAST. THE LOW BECOMES SEMI-CUT OFF AS
THE AXIS OF THE TROUGH SLIDES JUST NORTH OF NEVADA CREATING A COL
POINT OVER THE STATE. AS A RESULT THE SYSTEM IS BASICALLY RE-
DIRECTED AROUND THE AREA LEADING TO A DRIER, WARMER FORECAST. THE
LPC EVENTUALLY PASSES TO THE SOUTH OF THE AREA LATER THIS WEEKEND
PROLONGING PRECIPITATION CHANCES OVER CENTRAL NV BUT MOST OF THE
FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM IS SHUNTED AWAY FROM NV. PW
VALUES THURSDAY EVENING AND FRIDAY ARE STILL PRESENT BUT WITH MUCH
LESS FRONTOGENESIS AND VORTICITY OVER THE AREA ACCUMULATIONS HAVE
BEEN REDUCED TO 0.05-0.10 INCHES OF VALLEY RAIN ALONG AND NORTH
OF I-80. WHAT WAS ONCE THE POTENTIAL FIRST SNOW FOR NORTHERN NV VALLEYS
HAS NOW DISAPPEARED AS SNOWFALL WITH THE SYSTEM IS CONFINED TO
HIGHEST ELEVATIONS IN CENTRAL AND NORTHERN NV.
BEYOND THE WEEKEND ANOTHER DYNAMIC TROUGH SETS UP OVER THE PACIFIC
TO IMPACT THE WESTERN CONUS NEXT WEEK. CURRENTLY THE SYSTEM IS
FORECAST TO PRODUCE BETTER RAIN AND SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS FOR THE
AREA.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS: LOWER CONFIDENCE IN IMPACT OF
INCOMING SYSTEM BASED ON DISAGREEMENT AMONGST MODELS IN LATEST
RUN. KEPT WX GRIDS RELATIVELY THE SAME BUT QPF AND STORM TOTAL
GRIDS ARE SUSPECT.
AVIATION
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT 24-HOUR PERIOD
WITH LIGHT WINDS.
LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...99
AVIATION...86
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