642
FXUS65 KLKN 140922
AFDLKN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
122 AM PST FRI NOV 14 2025
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 120 AM PST FRI NOV 14 2025
* UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES THROUGH TODAY
* STRONG, GUSTY WINDS IN CENTRAL NEVADA TODAY WITH PATCHY BLOWING
DUST
* A DRIER, WARMER WEATHER SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE STATE LATE THIS
WEEK ACCORDING TO LATEST MODEL RUNS
* CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING IN WETTER AND COOLER WEATHER MOVING
INTO THE AREA DURING THE LATTER PORTIONS OF THE UPCOMING WEEKEND
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 120 AM PST FRI NOV 14 2025
ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ACROSS WESTERN
HUMBOLDT COUNTY, WITH ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY PERSISTING THROUGH THE
MORNING HOURS. CURRENT FORECAST TRENDS ARE WELL CAPTURED AND NO
CHANGES TO THE FORECAST ARE ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.
DISCUSSION
(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY)
WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW: SKIES ARE MOSTLY SUNNY THIS AFTERNOON
ACROSS MUCH OF NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NEVADA. INCREASED CLOUDINESS
CAN BE SEEN OVER HUMBOLDT COUNTY. LOOKING AT THE LATEST SATELLITE
LOOP, A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS SPINNING OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC,
BRINGING MOISTURE AND CLOUDS TO CALIFORNIA. PATCHY BLOWING DUST IS
ALSO BEING SEEN OVER CENTRAL NEVADA MOVING NORTH. THIS IS DUE TO
STRONG WINDS THAT DEVELOPED EARLY THIS MORNING. FOR THE
OVERNIGHT, CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN QUIET THOUGH LIGHT OFF AND ON
RAIN SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS WEST-CENTRAL NEVADA,
SPREADING EAST. OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 30S AND 40S.
ON EARLY FRIDAY MORNING, THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
WILL MEANDER SLIGHTLY TO THE SOUTHEAST, JUST OFF THE COAST OF
CALIFORNIA. THROUGHOUT FRIDAY, THE TRACK OF THE UPPER SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED TO WOBBLE TO THE SOUTH BUT REMAIN OFF THE COAST OF
CALIFORNIA. LIGHT SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS PORTIONS
OF CENTRAL NEVADA WITH AMOUNTS OF UP TO A TENTH OF AN INCH OVER
NORTHERN NYE COUNTY, THOUGH AMOUNTS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE
WIDESPREAD. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 60S WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS UP TO
25 MPH. THE CLOSED UPPER TROUGH WILL REPOSITION ITSELF OFF THE
SOUTHWEST COAST OF CALIFORNIA DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. AGAIN,
LIGHT OFF AND ON SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT WITH
LOWS IN THE 30S AND 40S.
THE UPPER LOW WILL STOP ITS SOUTHERLY MOVEMENT AND WILL BEGIN A
SHARP TURN TO THE NORTHEAST, COMING ASHORE ACROSS SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA BY SATURDAY EVENING. MODEL SIMULATIONS ARE DEPICTING
MOISTURE SHIFTING NORTHWARD ACROSS CENTRAL NEVADA AND THEN
NORTHERN NEVADA DURING SATURDAY AFTERNOON. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE
50S AND 60S. VALLEY LOCATIONS WILL SEE RAIN SHOWERS AS SNOW LEVELS
ON SATURDAY WILL BE AT OR ABOVE 9000 FEET. FORECAST RAINFALL
AMOUNTS FOR SATURDAY WILL BE A GENERAL ONE TO TWO TENTHS WITH
HIGHER AMOUNTS OF A THIRD TO HALF AN INCH IN CENTRAL NEVADA. WINDS
WILL BE LIGHT WITH SOME GUSTS TO 15 MPH. RAIN SHOWERS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY WITH LOWS IN THE 40S.
SNOW LEVELS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN STEADY AT OR ABOVE 8000 FEET.
THE UPPER LOW WILL LIFT TO THE NORTHEAST AND IS PROGGED TO BE OVER
THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY. COOL TEMPERATURES IN THE 40S AND 50S
WILL BE THE RULE WITH LIGHT WINDS. RAIN SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE OVER THE AREA. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE 30S.
CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN ACTIVE AND COOL FOR THE MIDDLE PORTIONS OF
THE WEEK WITH SHORTWAVE RIDGING THURSDAY. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 40S
WITH LOWS IN THE TEENS AND 20S.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS: CONFIDENCE IS MODERATE TO HIGH
AS SOLUTIONS KEY ON MAIN FEATURE MOVING THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA
FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. BEYOND SUNDAY, CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS AND SNOW LEVELS DUE TO UNCERTAINTY IN
SOLUTIONS.
AVIATION
LOOK FOR VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT THOUGH
STRONG SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE WITH SPEEDS OF
10-20G30-35KT. LOCALIZED BLDU CAN BE SEEN ON SATELLITE OVER
NORTHERN EUREKA COUNTY AT THIS TIME THAT COULD AFFECT THE KEKO
TERMINAL LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH REDUCTIONS TO VSBY
OF 1SM OR LESS. CONFIDENCE OF BLDU AFFECTING OTHER TERMINALS
REMAINS LOW AT THIS TIME AND SO HAVE NOT BEEN INCLUDED IN THE TAFS.
LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...86
AVIATION...97
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