216
FXUS65 KLKN 220904
AFDLKN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
104 AM PST MON DEC 22 2025
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 100 AM PST MON DEC 22 2025
* NEAR RECORD TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY
* PERIODS OF VALLEY RAIN AND ELEVATED SNOW, FOCUSED ACROSS
NORTHERN NEVADA THEN BECOMING MORE WIDESPREAD BY MID-WEEK,
LASTING THROUGH THE WEEKEND
* COOLER TEMPERATURES RETURN WEDNESDAY TO NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES
BY FRIDAY
* STRONG GUSTY WINDS RETURN MID-WEEK
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 100 AM PST MON DEC 22 2025
FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK WITH NO CHANGES NEEDED AT THIS TIME.
DISCUSSION
(TODAY THROUGH NEXT MONDAY)
WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW: A PERSISTENT HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM TO THE
SOUTH OVER MEXICO ALONG WITH A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE
WESTERN U.S. COAST WILL KEEP PUSHING AN ATMOSPHERIC RIVER EVENT
OVER NEVADA THAT IS EXPECTED TO LAST THIS WEEK AND INTO THE NEXT
WEEKEND. THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY, PRECIPITATION FROM THE
ATMOSPHERIC RIVER IS GOING TO STAY MAINLY ACROSS NORTHERN NEVADA.
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO FALL AS RAIN, AS THE HIGH PRESSURE
CONTINUES TO FLOW IN VERY WARM TEMPERATURES WITH THE POTENTIAL TO
BREAK RECORDS. ANY SNOW WILL BE AT MOUNTAIN PEAKS ABOVE 8200 FEET.
HIGH WINDS EXPECTED TO REMAIN ELEVATED WITH GUSTS REACHING UP TO
30 MPH.
BY MID-WEEK, THE LOW PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN COAST WILL MOVE
SOUTH TOWARDS SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA, SHIFTING THE ATMOSPHERIC RIVER
INTO A MORE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW. THIS WILL ALSO MAKE PRECIPITATION
MORE WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION. MUCH NEEDED COOLER
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO MOVE OVER NEVADA AS WELL, HOWEVER WILL
STILL BE WARMER FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR, KEEPING VALLEY
PRECIPITATION AS RAIN. SNOW LEVELS WILL DROP FROM ABOVE 8000 FEET,
TO 7000 FEET BY WEDNESDAY EVENING, SEEING MORE SNOW POSSIBLE ON
THE MOUNTAINS. PROBABILITY OF 50-60% FOR STRONGER WINDS TO RETURN
ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH SPEEDS UP TO 15-25 MPH, GUSTS UP TO
25-45 MPH. BY THURSDAY, WINDS REMAIN ELEVATED BUT WITH A 20-40%
CHANCE OF WIND GUSTS REACHING UP TO 35-40 MPH.
BY FRIDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND, TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO DROP
TO NEAR NORMAL AS THE LOW PRESSURE PUSHES INLAND. PRECIPITATION IS
STILL EXPECTED WITH SNOW POTENTIALLY REACHING INTO THE VALLEYS BY
FRIDAY NIGHT AS SNOW LEVELS DROP BELOW 5000 FEET. WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE MUCH LIGHTER OVER THE WEEKEND.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS: HIGH CONFIDENCE OF PERIODS OF
RAIN TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEK, BECOMING MORE WIDESPREAD BY
MID-WEEK. HIGH CONFIDENCE OF RECORD BREAKING TEMPERATURES THROUGH
TUESDAY THEN BECOMING MUCH COOLER BY MID-WEEK WITH MODERATE
CONFIDENCE DROPPING TO NEAR NORMAL BY THE WEEKEND. HIGH CONFIDENCE
OF STRONG WINDS THROUGH THE WEEK WITH STRONGEST WINDS BY MID-WEEK.
LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE OF VALLEY SNOW OVER THE WEEKEND AT
THIS TIME.
AVIATION
PERIODS OF VCSH AND -SHRA POSSIBLE OVER ALL NORTHERN TERMINALS.
VFR CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN DOMINANT, HOWEVER MVFR OR LOWER IS
POSSIBLE WITH PASSING RAIN SHOWERS. CIG LEVELS RANGE BETWEEN FL020
AND FL060 WITH THE EXCEPTION OF KTPH SEEING FL250 OR CLEAR SKIES.
HIGH WESTERLY/SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS EXPECTED AT ALL TERMINALS WITH
NORTHERN TERMINALS SEEING UP TO 15-25 KTS, GUSTS 25-35 KTS.
LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
UPDATES...99
DISCUSSION...92
AVIATION...92
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page