151
FXUS65 KLKN 240956
AFDLKN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
156 AM PST WED DEC 24 2025
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 112 AM PST WED DEC 24 2025
* PERIOD OF RAIN AND SNOW BEGINS EARLY TODAY, PERSISTING THRU
FRIDAY
* WARMER THAN AVERAGE TEMPERATURES RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL THIS
WEEKEND
* STRONG GUSTY WINDS CONTINUE THRU AT LEAST THURSDAY EVENING
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 112 AM PST WED DEC 24 2025
WIND SPEEDS ACROSS CENTRAL NEVADA CONTINUE TO REMAIN STRONG
THROUGH THE CHRISTMAS EVENING TIME FRAME. MODEL SIMULATIONS ARE
DEPICTING UPPER LEVEL WINDS REMAINING ON THE STRONG SIDE THROUGH
THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. 700MB WINDS IN CENTRAL NEVADA REMAIN
BETWEEN 45 TO 55 KNOTS THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. HAVE EXTENDED THE
WIND ADVISORY IN TIME FOR THE CENTRAL NEVADA ZONES THROUGH 700PM
DECEMBER 25. OTHERWISE, NO OTHER CHANGES WERE MADE.
AVIATION UPDATE
STRONG WINDS WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE TERMINALS
ACROSS CENTRAL NEVADA WITH WINDS GUSTS TO 40 KT EXPECTED TODAY.
SLIGHTLY WEAKER GUSTS TO 35 KT ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTHERN
SITES. WITH STRONG WINDS, PATCHY BLDU IS POSSIBLE AND MAY IMPACT
CIGS/VSBY. PRECIPITATION CHANCES INCREASE ACROSS ALL TAF SITES
LATE THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON WITH CIGS/VSBY BECOMING MVFR/IFR
AS A RESULT. THE THREAT FOR PATCHY BLDU CONTINUES BUT CONFIDENCE
IS LOW IN TIMING AND IMPACTS.
DISCUSSION
(THIS EVENING THROUGH NEXT MONDAY)
WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW: DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROF RESIDES OFF SHORE
OF THE WEST COAST WITH STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW SITUATED ACROSS
THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. THIS SET UP WILL MAINTAIN GUSTY SOUTHERLY
WINDS ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN THRU AT LEAST THURSDAY AND ADVISORY
CRITERIA WINDS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS MOST OF CENTRAL NEVADA THRU AT
LEAST WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON, CONSISTING OF WIND GUSTS 40 TO 50 MPH.
BLOWING DUST CAN BE EXPECTED THOUGH WIDESPREAD RAIN AND HIGH
MOUNTAIN SNOW MOVING INTO THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST
WEDNESDAY MORNING AFTER SUNRISE WILL EFFECTIVELY REDUCE THE
LIKELIHOOD OF BLOWING DUST BEYOND WEDNESDAY.
AS ALLUDED TO, A MODEST SURFACE CYCLONE WILL MOVE INTO NORCAL
WITH A SUBTROPICAL PLUME OF MOISTURE BEING DIRECTED INTO THE
SOUTHWEST U.S. THIS WILL SPREAD VALLEY RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW
INTO THE FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY MORNING. WIDESPREAD WETTING
RAINS ARE EXPECTED. SNOW LEVELS WILL BE QUITE HIGH GIVEN THE
UNSEASONABLY WARM WEATHER, RESIDING BETWEEN 7500 AND 8000 FEET ON
WEDNESDAY. SNOW LEVELS WILL BEGIN TO LOWER WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY AS THE TROF BEGINS TO SHIFT EASTWARD. BY THURSDAY
AFTERNOON, SNOW LEVELS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA LOOK TO BE BETWEEN
6500 AND 7000 FEET. TROF PROGRESSES THRU THE WESTERN U.S. FRIDAY
WITH FAIRLY HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT AN ATTENDANT SURFACE COLD FRONT
WILL PASS THRU NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NEVADA. SNOW LEVELS WILL LOWER
TO VALLEY LEVELS THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING. THAT SAID,
GIVEN THE EXCEPTIONALLY WARM WEATHER AND WARM GROUND TEMPERATURES,
ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL WITHIN THE VALLEYS WILL BE HARD TO ACHIEVE.
UNCERTAINTY IN THE SWITCH OVER FROM RAIN TO SNOW WILL FURTHER
COMPLICATE SNOW ACCUMULATION FORECASTS, ESPECIALLY AS THE FRONT
OVER TAKES SUCH AN UNSEASONABLY WARM AIR MASS. THAT SAID, MOST
VALLEY LOCATIONS CAN EXPECT LESS THAN AN INCH OF SNOW, THOUGH SOME
OF THE HIGHER ELEVATION VALLEYS, ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHERN
NEVADA MAY SEE 1 TO 3 INCHES OF SNOW.
DRY WEATHER AND LIGHT WINDS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE WEEKEND, WITH
FAIR CONDITIONS CONTINUING INTO NEXT WEEK.
TEMPERATURES REMAIN WARM THRU THURSDAY WITH DAY TIME HIGHS
RUNNING 15 DEGREES OR MORE WARMER THAN NORMAL. COOL DOWN BEGINS
FRIDAY AS THE COLD FRONT PROGRESSES THRU THE REGION FROM THE
NORTHWEST. TEMPERATURES WILL BE MOSTLY NEAR AVERAGE FOR THE
WEEKEND WITH DAYTIME HIGHS RESIDING IN THE LOW 30S TO LOW 40S.
WARMING TREND RETURNS EARLY NEXT WEEK.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS: HIGH CONFIDENCE OF PERIODS OF
PRECIPITATION THRU THE END OF THE WEEK. HIGH CONFIDENCE OF STRONG
GUSTY WINDS THRU THURSDAY. LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE OF VALLEY
SNOW ACCUMULATION LATE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. INCREASED WIND GUSTS
THRU THE END OF THE WEEK FROM NBM OUTPUT. ALSO USED DIFFERENT
MODEL BLENDS FOR POP GRIDS. ADJUSTED SNOW AMOUNT TO ACCOUNT FOR
MODEST UPSLOPE FORCING.
AVIATION
VFR CONDITIONS PERSIST AT ALL TERMINALS THRU TONIGHT.
MAIN CONCERN WILL BE CONTINUED ELEVATED WINDS AT KTPH AND KELY
TONIGHT WITH WINDS INCREASING AT NORTHERN NEVADA TERMINALS AS
WELL. SOUTHERLY GUSTS AS HIGH AS 40 KTS CAN BE EXPECTED AT KTPH
AND KELY, SLIGHTLY MORE MODEST ACROSS NORTHERN NEVADA TERMINALS,
REMAINING LESS THAN 20 KTS AT KENV. BLDU AND HZ MAY IMPACT
TERMINALS AND REDUCE VIS.
CIGS LOWER THRU THE NIGHT AHEAD OF INCOMING ACTIVE WEATHER, AND
WILL RESIDE WITHIN MVFR CATEGORY BY TOMORROW MORNING. -RA WILL
ALSO OVERSPREAD THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST WEDNESDAY
MORNING WITH CIGS REMAINING LOW AND REDUCTIONS TO VIS LIKELY.
WINDS WILL ALSO REMAIN ELEVATED.
LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM PST THURSDAY NVZ034-035-037-040-041.
DISCUSSION...92/86
AVIATION...92/86
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