832
FXUS65 KLKN 251015 CCA
AFDLKN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
215 AM PST THU DEC 25 2025
CORRECTION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1259 AM PST THU DEC 25 2025
* STRONG GUSTY WINDS ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION HAVE PROMPTED A
WIND ADVISORY THROUGH THIS EVENING. THE WIND ADVISORY WILL
CONTINUE FOR WHITE PINE COUNTY THROUGH 700PM FRIDAY
* PERIODS OF RAIN AND MAINLY HIGH ELEVATION SNOW WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK
* WARMER THAN AVERAGE TEMPERATURES RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL THIS
WEEKEND
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 1259 AM PST THU DEC 25 2025
WIND ADVISORY CONTINUES THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR CENTRAL NEVADA,
INCLUDING ZONES 034 AND 038. HOWEVER, THE STRONG WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY FOR ZONE 035, WHITE PINE COUNTY.
WINDS IN THIS AREA WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE SOUTH WITH SUSTAINED
WINDS OF 20 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 50 MPH THROUGH 700PM FRIDAY.
OTHERWISE, CURRENT FORECAST IS TRACKING WELL AT THIS TIME. RAIN
SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA, BUT
EXPECTING A BRIEF BREAK DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS WITH
ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS EXPECTED TO MOVE IN LATER THIS MORNING
AND AFTERNOON. HIGHS WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL ONCE AGAIN, BUT COOLER
TEMPERATURES WILL FILTER IN FOR FRIDAY AND THE WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
(THIS EVENING THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY)
WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW: A LARGE ULT APPROACHING THE WEST COAST
IS ENABLING AN AR EVENT TO IMPACT THE SOUTHWESTERN CONUS BRINGING
BADLY NEEDED MOISTURE AND PRECIPITATION TO NORTHERN AND CENTRAL
NV. A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT AND ASSOCIATED JET STREAK IN THE
DOWNSTREAM OF THE ULT IS CREATING STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER MUCH
OF THE REGION PROMPTING A WIND ADVISORY FOR CENTRAL NV AND THE
SOUTHWEST PORTION OF ELKO COUNTY. DUE TO THE SLOW MOVING NATURE OF
THE TROUGH THE WIND ADVISORY IS IN PLACE UNTIL AT LEAST THURSDAY
EVENING AND MAY BE EXTENDED INTO FRIDAY DEPENDING ON THE NEXT
MODEL RUN.
WV IMAGERY CURRENTLY DEPICTS A NICE PLUME OF MOISTURE MOVING
SOUTH TO NORTH INTO CENTRAL AND NORTHERN NV. MUCH NEEDED RAINFALL
IS ALREADY OCCURRING OVER CENTRAL AND NORTHWESTERN NV AND IS
EXPECTED TO SPREAD INTO EASTERN NV BY WEDNESDAY EVENING. THE AR
EVENT IS PROVIDING ANOMALOUS PW VALUES WITH FORECASTED PW OVER
THE REGION RANGING 0.55-0.65 INCHES INTO THURSDAY MORNING. AVERAGE
PW FOR CHRISTMAS EVE IS 0.23 WITH A 90% OF 0.38. CURRENT RAINFALL
ACCUMULATION PROJECTIONS HAVE 0.75-1.00 FOR NYE COUNTY, WITH
0.25-0.5 FOR THE REST OF THE AREA TODAY WITH LESSER AMOUNTS TO THE
EAST. WHILE FRONTOGENESIS GUIDANCE DOESN'T PROMOTE ANY
SUBSTANTIAL FORCING AT ANY GIVEN TIME ENOUGH FG IS IN PLACE OVER
THE AREA TO BE EFFICIENT FOR PRECIPITATION PRODUCTION. SNOWFALL
FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY IS RELEGATED TO ABOVE 7000 FEET FOR ALL
BUT WESTERN HUMBOLDT COUNTY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. SNOW LEVELS
ARE FORECAST TO TUMBLE TO VALLEY FLOORS GRADUALLY THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY MORNING. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS FOR VALLEY FLOORS ARE GENERALLY
IN THE DUSTING TO 1 INCH RANGE THOUGH THE RECENT STRETCH OF
UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES WILL MOST LIKELY MITIGATE MUCH IF
ANY ACCUMULATION OF SNOW THAT DOES OCCUR. THE WSSI CONTAINS ONLY
MINOR WINTER WEATHER IMPACTS FOR ELEVATED ROADWAYS ALONG I-80,
US-50, US-93, AND AREA STATE HIGHWAYS THROUGH SATURDAY. BETTER
SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE FORECAST FOR THE REGIONS HIGHEST PEAKS AND
RIDGES WHERE SNOWPACKS WILL SEE AN ADDITIONAL 8-12 INCHES OF NEW
SNOWFALL.
THOSE SNOW LEVELS DROPPING TO BELOW 6000 FEET BY FRIDAY ARE IN
RESPONSE TO THE ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXPECTED TO BRING MORE
SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES TO THE REGION BY THE WEEKEND WHERE
AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL TOP OUT IN THE 30S AND LOW 40S, ENDING A
STRETCH OF WARM RECORD BREAKING WEATHER FOR THE AREA. BEYOND THE
WEEKEND HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION NEXT WEEK
QUIETING THE PATTERN BUT KEEPING NORTHERLY FLOW AND COLDER
TEMPERATURES IN THE FORECAST INTO THE NEW YEAR.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS: HIGH CONFIDENCE REMAINS IN
STRONG SOUTHERLY GUSTY WINDS ACROSS THE AREA THOUGH WIND AND WIND
GUST GRIDS WERE JUICED USING A 2-1-1 HRRR/NBM/NBM90 TO HELP WITH
ACCURACY AS NBM CONTINUES TO STRUGGLE WITH WIND SPEEDS. HIGH
CONFIDENCE REMAINS IN PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH
SATURDAY AND LOWER TEMPERATURES BY THE WEEKEND.
AVIATION
PERIODS OF MVFR AND IFR ARE EXPECTED AT ALL TERMINALS THROUGH
THURSDAY AFTERNOON IN RESPONSE TO A COMBINATION OF PRECIPITATION
AND LOW CIGS. AN ATMOSPHERIC RIVER EVENT WILL KEEP VCSH/-SHRA FOR
ALL TERMINALS THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY EVENING. PRECIP WILL
LINGER UNTIL AFTER MIDNIGHT AT KWMC, KEKO, KELY, AND KENV. CIGS
WILL RESIDE AT OR BELOW 2000FT UNTIL THURSDAY MORNING FOR KWMC,
KBAM, AND KEKO. LOW CIGS AT KTPH AT OR BELOW 1000FT WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON. LOW CIGS AT KELY AND KENV AT OR BELOW
2000FT WILL CONTINUE UNTIL AFTER MIDNIGHT THURSDAY MORNING.
STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED AT KELY WITH GUSTS RANGING
40-45KTS THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON. WEDNESDAY STRONG WINDS WITH
GUSTS RANGING 30-35KTS AT ALL OTHER TERMINALS WILL CONTINUE UNTIL
LATE WEDNESDAY EVENING. GUSTS WILL DIMINISH TO AROUND 20KTS
OVERNIGHT THURSDAY BEFORE RESUMING STRONG GUSTS AT ALL TERMINALS
NEAR 30-35KTS AGAIN THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM PST THIS EVENING NVZ034-037-038-040-041.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM PST FRIDAY NVZ035.
DISCUSSION...86/99
AVIATION...86/99
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