322
FXUS65 KLKN 261015
AFDLKN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
215 AM PST FRI DEC 26 2025
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 205 AM PST FRI DEC 26 2025
* STRONG GUSTY WINDS ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION HAVE PROMPTED A
WIND ADVISORY FOR WHITE PINE COUNTY TO CONTINUE THROUGH THIS
EVENING.
* PERIODS OF RAIN AND MAINLY HIGH ELEVATION SNOW WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING
* COOLER TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE START OF NEXT WEEK, GREADUALLY
RISING TO ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS BY MID-WEEK.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 205 AM PST FRI DEC 26 2025
CURRENT FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK AT THIS TIME AND NO CHANGES HAVE
BEEN MADE.
DISCUSSION
(THIS EVENING THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY)
STRONG UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED ATMOSPHERIC RIVER
CURRENTLY IMPACTING CALIFORNIA WILL CONTINUE TO SEND PERIODS OF
STRONG WINDS AND ROUNDS OF MOISTURE THROUGH NEVADA UNTIL SATURDAY
EVENING. THE FIRST PART OF THIS SYSTEM WHICH MOVED THROUGH NV
YESTERDAY HAS PUSHED INTO UTAH, LEAVING THE SILVER STATE IN A BIT
OF A LULL AS ANOTHER PUSH OF ENERGY IS CURRENTLY AFFECTING
CALIFORNIA. HOWEVER THIS LULL IS ONLY FOR PRECIPITATION THE
DYNAMIC NATURE OF THIS TROUGH HAS CONTINUED TO PRODUCE STRONG
SOUTHERLY WINDS ACROSS THE STATE AS WIND ADVISORIES REMAIN IN
EFFECT THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR MUCH OF THE REGION, AND WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING FOR WHITE PINE COUNTY. AS FOR THE
LULL IN PRECIPITATION THAT WILL END THIS EVENING FROM WEST TO EAST
AND LAST THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS SECOND PULSE OF ENERGY WILL
AGAIN BE WARM AS THE FIRST AS SNOW LEVELS REMAIN AT ABOUT 6500 TO
7000 FEET. SO SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE LIMITED TO THE HIGH
PASSES AND THE MOUNTAIN RANGE PEAKS, WITH LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN
SHOWERS FOR THE VALLEYS. SATURDAY MORNING THE MAIN TROUGH AXIS
WILL PUSH THROUGH THE STATE. THIS WILL FINALLY ALLOW FOR COOLER
AIR TO FILTER IN ALOFT AND LOWER SNOW LEVELS, HOW MUCH IS
UNCERTAIN. MODELS WANT TO PUSH SNOW LEVELS TO THE VALLEY FLOORS BY
SATURDAY MORNING, WHICH IS POSSIBLE. HOWEVER GIVEN THE WARM
CONDITIONS WE HAVE SEEN THIS WEEK, GROUND TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE
40S, SURFACE FORECAST TEMPERATURES ARE STILL ABOVE FREEZING IN THE
MID TO UPPER 30S. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE VERY QUICK TO WET
BULB TEMPERATURES DOWN INTO THE 20S SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THIS
FORECASTER THINKS THAT THE DYNAMIC COOLING SHOWN BY BOTH ENSEMBLE
MODEL SUITES IS TOO STRONG, AND GIVEN THE COLD BIAS SHOWN IN PAST
TRENDS THAT SNOW AMOUNTS FORECAST BY THE EC AND GFS ARE TOO HIGH
AT THIS TIME. THE MOST LIKELY SCENARIO, ONE THAT IS SUPPORTED BY
THE NBM, IS FOR THE LOWER ELEVATION VALLEYS, BELOW 5000 FT, THE
DOMINANT P-TYPE WILL BE RAIN. HIGHER ELEVATION VALLEYS BETWEEN
5000 FT AND 5500 FT COULD SEE A BRIEF CHANGE OVER TO SNOW SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING BUT WARM GROUND AND SURFACE TEMPERATURES
WILL NOT ALLOW FOR SNOW TO ACCUMULATE, WITH THE POSSIBLE EXCEPTION
OF GRASSY SURFACES. STORM TOTALS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY LOOK DECENT
WITH BETWEEN 0.10” TO 1.00” OF WATER ACROSS NORTHERN NEVADA, WHILE
CENTRAL NEVADA COULD SEE BETWEEN 0.25” AND 1.50” OF WATER. OF
THAT WATER THE MOUNTAINS COULD SEE BETWEEN 6” AND 18” OF NEW SNOW,
WITH THE PASSES SEEING UP TO 1” TO 5” OF SNOW. AFTER SATURDAY
HIGH PRESSURE LOOKS TO BUILD IN OVER NORTHERN CALIFORNIA AND INTO
NEVADA. THIS WILL BRING BACK QUIET WEATHER CONDITIONS AS WELL AS
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN REGION. THIS
RIDGING IS EXPECTED TO SPLIT THE UPPER FLOW PATTERN WITH ACTIVE
WEATHER CONTINUING FOR THE PACIFIC NW AND FAR SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA
SUNDAY THROUGH THE NEW YEAR.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS:
THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE POSSIBILITY FOR STRONG SOUTHERLY
WINDS LASTING THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING ACROSS CENTRAL AND PARTS OF
NORTHERN NEVADA.
THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE CHANCES FOR RAIN AND HIGH
ELEVATION SNOW TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING ACROSS NV,
THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE POTENTIAL FOR RAIN CHANGING OVER
TO SNOWFALL WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS SATURDAY
FOR ELEVATIONS BELOW 5500 FEET.
AVIATION
VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING. BREEZY
SOUTHERLY WINDS OF 20KT TO 30KT WITH A FEW GUSTS UP TO 45KT WILL
BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING AS A STRONG
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. RAIN SHOWERS WILL BE
LIKELY ACROSS ALL TERMINALS THIS EVENING AND INTO FRIDAY AS CIG
LOWER TO NEAR 1500 FEET. VISIBILITY LOOKS TO DROP TO 4SM OR LESS
WITH THE STRONGER SHOWERS WHICH WILL BRING DROPS IN FLIGHT
CONDITIONS TO MVFR TO IFR LEVERS FOR PERIOD OF TIME. IN ADDITION
TO THE WINDS AND PRECIPITATION WIND SHEAR AND MOUNTAIN WAKE
TURBULENCE WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING ACCENT FROM, AND DECENT TO AREA
TERMINALS. AT ELEVATIONS ABOVE 6000 FEET AIRCRAFT ICING WILL BE
POSSIBLE THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING.
LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM PST THIS EVENING NVZ035.
DISCUSSION...86/98
AVIATION...98
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