673
FXUS65 KLKN 160940
AFDLKN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
140 AM PST FRI JAN 16 2026
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 138 AM PST FRI JAN 16 2026
* HIGH PRESSURE AND QUIET CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
FORECAST.
* AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL WARM TO WELL ABOVE NORMAL
LEVELS THROUGH THE WEEK.
* INITIAL INDICATIONS OF THE RIDGE BREAKING DOWN ARE POSSIBLE
LATE NEXT WEEK.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 138 AM PST FRI JAN 16 2026
CURRENT FORECAST IS TRENDING WELL. ONLY CHANGE TO THE FORECAST WAS
REMOVAL OF PATCHY FOG IN PORTIONS OF HUMBOLDT COUNTY.
DISCUSSION
(THIS EVENING THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY)
WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW: UPPER LEVEL RIDGING CONTINUES OVER THE
WEST. PRECIPITATION IS STILL NOT EXPECTED UNDER THE RIDGE, HOWEVER
SURFACE MOISTURE LEVELS HAVE BEEN SLOWLY INCREASING AND SOME
PATCHY FOG COULD FORM IN THE VALLEYS OF NORTHERN NEVADA TONIGHT
INTO TOMORROW MORNING. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO BE ABOVE
AVERAGE, WITH LIGHT WINDS AND DRY CONDITIONS. LONG TERM MODELS ARE
FINALLY SHOWING SOME SIGNS OF RIDGE BREAKDOWN LATE NEXT WEEK,
WHICH WOULD OPEN THE DOOR FOR A RETURN TO COOLER TEMPERATURES AND
POTENTIAL FOR PRECIPITATION. THIS IS STILL A LONG WAY OUT AND WILL
NEED TO BE WATCHED FOR THE FULL PICTURE OF IMPACTS.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS: THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN
RIDGE PERSISTENCE THROUGH MID NEXT WEEK, THEN CONFIDENCE BECOMES
MODERATE FOR RIDGE BREAKDOWN LATE NEXT WEEK. TIMING AND IMPACTS OF
THE RIDGE BREAKDOWN CURRENTLY HAVE LOW CONFIDENCE.
BASELINE NBM CONTINUES TO BE TOO WARM DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
AS A RESULT, LOW TEMPERATURES FOR TONIGHT HAVE AGAIN BEEN LOWERED
A FEW DEGREES USING NBM 25%.
AVIATION
LIGHT WINDS AND VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT ALL SITES
THROUGH TONIGHT. PATCHY FOG MAY DEVELOP DURING THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS AT KWMC/KBAM/KEKO/KENV. IF FOG DEVELOPS IT WOULD BE EXPECTED
TO PERSIST UNTIL AROUND 18-19Z TOMORROW MORNING AND COULD REDUCE
CONDITIONS TO VLIFR STATUS. KTPH AND KELY ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
UNDER VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE ENTIRE FORECAST.
LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...86
AVIATION...86
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