445
FXUS65 KLKN 070517
AFDLKN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
917 PM PST FRI FEB 6 2026
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 912 PM PST FRI FEB 6 2026
* CONTINUED NEAR RECORD WARM TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEKEND
* PERIODS OF PRECIPITATION MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
* TURNING COLDER STARTING MONDAY
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 912 PM PST FRI FEB 6 2026
SATELLITE IMAGERY AS OF 900PM THIS EVENING DEPICTS A REGION OF
FOG LOCATED ACROSS SOUTHWEST HUMBOLDT COUNTY, WITHIN THE BLACKROCK
DESERT. PATCHY FOG MAY BE PRESENT ACROSS PORTIONS OF SR-140
BETWEEN DENIO AND THE US-95 JUNCTION. SLOW DOWN AND USE CAUTION IF
DRIVING THROUGH FOG AS VISIBILITY MAY BE REDUCED TO LESS THAN A
MILE IN SOME INSTANCES.
DISCUSSION
(THIS EVENING THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY)
WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW:
STUBBORN BLOCKING PATTERN THAT HAS HELD MUCH OF THE WEST DRY AND
WARM FOR MOST OF THE LAST SEVERAL WEEKS WILL BEGIN TO BREAK DOWN
AS A MAJOR PATTERN CHANGE LOOKS TO BRING RAIN AND SNOW CHANCES
BACK TO THE REGION. HOWEVER IT IS STILL A FEW DAYS AWAY. QUIET
WEATHER PATTERN THAT HAS FEATURED SOME VERSION OF A HIGH OVER LOW,
OR REX BLOCK OVER THE WEST COAST, WILL BEGIN TO ERODE OVER THE
WEEKEND AS THE CUTOFF UPPER LOW OFF SHORE OF BAJA SHIFTS SOUTH
AND EAST SUNDAY NIGHT ALLOWING FOR THE UPPER RIDGE TO MOVE INTO
THE PLAINS STATES. THIS WILL FINALLY ALLOW THE NORTHERN JET TO
SHIFT AND ALLOW A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL TROUGHS TO DIG SOUTH OVER
THE WEST INTO NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. THE FIRST SYSTEM LOOKS TO MOVE
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. MODELS ARE TRENDING WEAKER AND
FARTHER NORTH WITH THIS SYSTEM AND IT MAY JUST SERVE A GLANCING
BLOW TO THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS OF HUMBOLDT AND ELKO COUNTIES WITH
LIGHT RAIN AND HIGHER ELEVATION SNOW, BUT WILL BRING IN COOLER
AIR THAT WILL DROP HIGHS FROM THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S CLOSER TO
SEASONAL NORMS IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S BY TUESDAY. A SECOND
STRONGER SYSTEM, WILL FOLLOW ON THE HEELS OF THE FIRST ON TUESDAY
EVENING INTO WEDNESDAY. MODELS SHOW THIS SYSTEM ON A MORE
SOUTHERN TRACK THAT WILL BRING LOWER ELEVATION RAIN AND MOUNTAIN
SNOW TO MUCH OF THE STATE. SNOW LEVELS ARE STILL A BIT UNCERTAIN
AS MODELS HAVE BEEN TRENDING WARMER OVERALL. FOR NOW SNOW LEVELS
START AT OR ABOVE 7500 FEET SUNDAY, BEFORE DROPPING TO 5500 TO
5000 FEET FOR NORTHERN NV, MONDAY EVENING AS THE FIRST SYSTEM
CLIPS BY. FOR TUESDAY’S SYSTEM SNOW LEVELS START AT 5500 FEET FOR
NORTHERN NEVADA, AND 6500 FEET FOR CENTRAL NEVADA. BY WEDNESDAY
MORNING, DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH COLD AIR VERIFIES, SNOW LEVELS
COULD DROP TO VALLEY FLOORS ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE STATE
WITH ONLY FAR SOUTHERN WHITE PINE AND THE US-6 CORRIDOR SEEING
SNOW LEVELS AT 5500 FEET. OVERALL AMOUNTS ARE STILL A BIT
UNCERTAIN AS WELL AS OVERALL MOISTURE HAS VARIED QUITE A BIT IN
THE LAST FEW DAYS OF MODEL RUNS. CURRENT THINKING AS SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY, LIQUID EQUIVALENT PRECIPITATION WILL BE BETWEEN A TRACE
TO 0.25”, OF THAT SEEING A 1” TO 4” OF SNOW FOR THE RANGE PEAKS OF
MAINLY NORTHERN NV. FOR TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY LIQUID
VALUES RANGE FROM 0.01” TO NEAR 0.70”. VALLEYS COULD SEE UP TO
0.15” OF LIQUID WITH UP 1”-2” OF THAT BEING SNOW. ROADWAY SUMMITS
WILL SEE A BIT MORE SNOW WITH 0.05” TO 0.40” OF WATER, INCLUDING
UP TO 2” TO 4” OF SNOW, WHILE THE MOUNTAINS MAY SEE UP TO A FOOT
OF NEW SNOW. THURSDAY AND FRIDAY MODELS DISAGREE ON THE PATTERN,
BUT AGREE THAT FOR THE MOST PART THOSE DAYS LOOK TO BE DRY. THE EC
FAVORS A PROGRESSIVE SHORTWAVE RIDGE IN THE WAKE OF WEDNESDAY’S
SYSTEM WHILE THE GFS FAVORS WEAK TROUGHING OVER THE SILVER STATE.
HOWEVER MODELS DO SHOW THE POTENTIAL OF A THIRD TROUGH PUSHING IN
FOR NEXT WEEKEND, JUST BEYOND THE FORECAST WINDOW.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS:
THERE IS MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE CHANCES FOR A LARGE
SCALE PATTERN CHANGE BEGINNING SUNDAY.
THERE IS MODERATE CONFIDENCE FOR LIGHT LOWER ELEVATION RAIN,
MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY ACROSS NORTHERN
NEVADA
THERE IS MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN A SECOND STRONGER SYSTEM
MOVING THROUGH NEVADA TUESDAY EVENING INTO WEDNESDAY WITH LOWER
ELEVATION RAIN CHANGING TO ALL SNOW WITH LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS UP TO
1” FOR THE VALLEYS AND UP TO A FOOT FOR THE HIGH RANGE PEAKS.
THERE IS LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE FOR A BREAK IN THE ACTION
THURSDAY TO FRIDAY OF NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION
VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO BE THE PRIMARY FLIGHT CONDITIONS
THROUGH SATURDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS SLOWLY SPINNING ACROSS
SOUTHERN NEVADA. THIS LOW WILL ACT TO THICKEN CLOUD COVER AND
LOWER CIGS FOR KTPH AND KELY TO NEAR 7KFT FOR PERIODS WITH VCSH
FOR KTPH THIS EVENING. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT OVER THE REGION AT
5KT TO 10 KT, WIND DIRECTIONS WILL VARY ACROSS N NV FROM W TO NW.
WHILE CENTRAL NV WILL SEE E TO SE WINDS AT SIMILAR SPEEDS. CIGS
FOR KEKO, KBAM, KWMC AND KENV LOOK TO REMAIN ABOVE 15KFT.
LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...92
AVIATION...92
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